WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139346
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#81 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 18, 2013 3:16 pm

21:00 UTC JTWC warning peaks at 125kts and James,now over Hong Kong.

WTPN32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (USAGI) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 17.2N 128.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 128.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.7N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.7N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 19.7N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 20.7N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.0N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 22.3N 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.5N 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 128.2E.
TYPHOON 17W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND
192100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3615
Age: 32
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#82 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Sep 18, 2013 4:48 pm

Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3615
Age: 32
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#83 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Sep 18, 2013 4:55 pm

Wow, Usagi lost some latitude.
Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

Typhoon Hunter
WesternPacificWeather.com
WesternPacificWeather.com
Posts: 1215
Age: 40
Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2006 11:37 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#84 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Wed Sep 18, 2013 6:28 pm

Models were forecasting Usagi to lose a little bit of latitude. Should start tracking W or WNW soon per guidance. Impressively large and powerful storm!
0 likes   
James - Documenting typhoons...

http://www.youtube.com/TyphoonHunter

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#85 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 6:31 pm

First visible image shows a strikingly well-organised storm with excellent banding features, a nearly undisturbed outflow, and a developing eye. Looks, by all means, to me, a major typhoon right now.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2299
Age: 29
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

#86 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 6:31 pm

Very large and powerful system! Rare to see these days. :lol: Seriously though hope this doesn't become a problem to those in the storm's path.
0 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#87 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 6:33 pm

What is the latest intensity update in terms of 1-minute sustained winds?
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
Extratropical94
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3535
Age: 29
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany
Contact:

Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#88 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 6:49 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:What is the latest intensity update in terms of 1-minute sustained winds?

Latest JTWC advisory: 90 knots
CIMSS ADT estimation: T5.3 = 97 knots
SSD Dvorak analysis: T5.5 = 102 knots
SSD ADT Current Intensity: T5.8-5.9 = 110-112 knots

Pick one. :D
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#89 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 7:09 pm

Extratropical94 wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:What is the latest intensity update in terms of 1-minute sustained winds?

Latest JTWC advisory: 90 knots
CIMSS ADT estimation: T5.3 = 97 knots
SSD Dvorak analysis: T5.5 = 102 knots
SSD ADT Current Intensity: T5.8-5.9 = 110-112 knots

Pick one. :D


I'll pick 102 knots. :ggreen:
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#90 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 7:17 pm

Deep convection is consolidating into a ring around the eye.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#91 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 7:20 pm

That's an interesting wobble to the south, will it cause a track shift?
Current forecast takes a path very similar to Typhoon Dujuan which severely impacted the city I lived back in 2003
0 likes   

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3408
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#92 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Sep 18, 2013 7:36 pm

The more south it wobbles right now, the more HK will be put into the bull's eye IMO...if Usagi starts to move WNW from here then it will end up passing north of Babuyan Islands and then straight to HK early next week.


Kind of OT: We have a scheduled flight from Manila to Hongkong around late Monday night-early Tuesday morning...will Usagi just be in time to affect our flight, or maybe get cancelled then? I'm not sure what the flight cancellation policy is in HK when there's a typhoon coming.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

phwxenthusiast
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 637
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2010 3:10 am
Location: Holbrook, NY (Long Island)

#93 Postby phwxenthusiast » Wed Sep 18, 2013 7:42 pm

i don't know guys... right now, i feel like this system will continue moving westward and end up tracking farther south than currently forecast.. if it continues like this, a clip in Cagayan is not unlikely...

looking at the skew-t from Laoag (shown below), there's not a whole lot of strong winds in the upper-levels... sounding from Taipei (second image below) from the same hour does show moderate easterlies in the 500mb level and up indicative of the strong High anchored in the region... do note that these images are like 12 hours old now although i don't expect the changes in the wind pattern to be that significant yet...

Image

Image

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   

HurricaneDREW92
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 320
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 11:56 am
Location: Boston, MA

Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#94 Postby HurricaneDREW92 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 7:54 pm

If this were in the atlantic...
0 likes   
This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

-THE ABOVE IS THE OPINION OF DREW ONLY

Typhoon Hunter
WesternPacificWeather.com
WesternPacificWeather.com
Posts: 1215
Age: 40
Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2006 11:37 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#95 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Wed Sep 18, 2013 8:13 pm

The models were picking up on this drop in latitude so it's not really a surprise. Looks to have stalled out a bit last few hours. Jim Edds is in Hong Kong with me and we're trying to work out a plan of where to try and catch Usagi, it's not easy especially given there's a chance it could come to Hong Kong. Hoping for some more tighter model consensus when the 00z runs come out.
0 likes   
James - Documenting typhoons...

http://www.youtube.com/TyphoonHunter

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139346
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#96 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 18, 2013 8:16 pm

00z Best Track remains at 90kts.

17W USAGI 130919 0000 17.0N 128.1E WPAC 90 956
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3408
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

#97 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Sep 18, 2013 8:20 pm

Just a gut feeling this will be the next storm to affect Hongkong...and also this one wants to mess with our flight next week. :lol:
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
TropicalAnalystwx13
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2109
Age: 26
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:

#98 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 8:40 pm

Beautiful structure with spiral banding to the north and a very tight core. Maybe some dry air entrainment in the northern part of the circulation, but the system is still well-organized to say the least.

Image
0 likes   

hurricaneCW
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1773
Joined: Wed Mar 03, 2010 6:20 am
Location: Toms River, NJ

Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#99 Postby hurricaneCW » Wed Sep 18, 2013 9:14 pm

Looks like a major hurricane or in this case typhoon to me and it's getting even better organized with a ring of deep convection. The eye has yet to clear out which is probably why it's not stronger than that. I wonder if this can become a supertyphoon.
0 likes   

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#100 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 9:22 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:Looks like a major hurricane or in this case typhoon to me and it's getting even better organized with a ring of deep convection. The eye has yet to clear out which is probably why it's not stronger than that. I wonder if this can become a supertyphoon.


The possibility certainly exists.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.


Return to “2013”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests