ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

That HWRF run would potentially be Tampa Bay's worst nightmare!!! Yeesh!!!

SFT

[Pearl River]

Kind of reminds me of EDITH in '71. Not long tracked as a storm or strength, but EDITH got up to the Mexican coast, stalled and then headed for the La coast, as a couple of models are indicating 95L could do at this time. We all know things change. Don't need it for this weekend, daughter has a soccer tournament in P'Cola. Not wishing anyone bad luck, but you guy's and gal's in TX and SWLa need the rain more than we do.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

:uarrow: it's about time you got interested Mike...

Yeah you're telling me! Might not be for long though. As wxman said I think this has about as a good a shot going into mexico as it does north. Or very well could end up like the last invest that was at 60-70% chance going across the Yucatan and never developed but brought butt loads of rain to Florida and we never got a drop. Season has been hard to get interested in this year.

BTW looking forward to you posting all the navgem and cmc runs this week. Always good for a laugh

[BigB0882]

How many days out is the Euro? If we are within 5 days then that has to be taken seriously. I am not worried anything too severe at this point but will be upset if the LSU game is rained out (which it may be even if this misses, many scenarios bring plenty of moisture whether or not we have a tropical system hit directly).

[PTrackerLA]

How many days out is the Euro? If we are within 5 days then that has to be taken seriously. I am not worried anything too severe at this point but will be upset if the LSU game is rained out (which it may be even if this misses, many scenarios bring plenty of moisture whether or not we have a tropical system hit directly).

BigB the Euro solution of a TC on the Louisiana coast is for next Friday the 27th. I have a hard time believing this system will be out in that long. It looks like regardless we should get some rain this weekend which we need pretty badly over here and points west.

[BigB0882]

Thanks, 10 days out is a very long time. I don't see it hanging out in the Gulf that long but the end result could be the same if the trough is faster, I suppose. Curious to see future runs. Nice to have something to watch!

[ROCK]

since I am here just for comedy relief for Mike, here is the 18Z NAVGEM at 48hrs....timing looks like the EURO...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... watl_9.png

[ROCK]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_13.png

sort of looks like the UKMET run from earlier.

78hrs

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_14.png


102hr...going to be picked up I think on this run...deep front.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_14.png

144hr....nope missed it... but looks like moving to NGOM...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_14.png

[Dean4Storms]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2013091718/navgem_mslp_pcpn_watl_13.png

sort of looks like the UKMET run from earlier.

78hrs

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_14.png


102hr...going to be picked up I think on this run...deep front.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_14.png

144hr....nope missed it... but looks like moving to NGOM...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_14.png

Rock..... Think you're suppose to put links in the URL tab.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Seriously Rock,

The euro and navgem showing this system still down deep in the boc at this time next week is highly suspect. Like pt said just can't see any scenario that once this gets back out over water it stays there for a solid week without going into mexico just like ingrid did. I know you remember the early models showing that sitting out there forever before moving north into south texas.

[stormlover2013]

Never say never, it could happen!!

[TideJoe]

Seriously Rock,

The euro and navgem showing this system still down deep in the boc at this time next week is highly suspect. Like pt said just can't see any scenario that once this gets back out over water it stays there for a solid week without going into mexico just like ingrid did. I know you remember the early models showing that sitting out there forever before moving north into south texas.

Seems like I remember Opal hanging out down there for several days until a front picked her up.

[cycloneye]

00z BAMS Guidance.

WHXX01 KWBC 180028
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0028 UTC WED SEP 18 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952013) 20130918 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130918 0000 130918 1200 130919 0000 130919 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.8N 88.6W 19.9N 90.2W 21.0N 91.8W 21.9N 93.5W
BAMD 18.8N 88.6W 19.4N 90.0W 20.0N 91.5W 20.7N 93.0W
BAMM 18.8N 88.6W 19.6N 90.0W 20.3N 91.7W 21.0N 93.3W
LBAR 18.8N 88.6W 19.6N 89.9W 20.8N 91.3W 22.2N 92.6W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 35KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130920 0000 130921 0000 130922 0000 130923 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.9N 95.0W 24.7N 97.1W 23.9N 97.7W 22.4N 98.2W
BAMD 21.4N 94.5W 22.6N 96.5W 22.4N 97.1W 21.3N 97.5W
BAMM 21.8N 94.8W 23.0N 96.7W 22.4N 96.9W 21.1N 96.9W
LBAR 24.0N 93.9W 27.3N 93.9W 28.1N 90.3W 28.1N 86.0W
SHIP 52KTS 63KTS 70KTS 74KTS
DSHP 49KTS 60KTS 67KTS 71KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.8N LONCUR = 88.6W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 18.2N LONM12 = 88.0W DIRM12 = 322DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 17.8N LONM24 = 87.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[bamajammer4eva]

Looks like according to Channel 7 in Panama City's graphic that 95l is either bound for Old Mexico or the FL Peninsula. He SAYS NGOM but looks to me more like Tampa area or further south on his map.

Christopher Smith
The latest model runs for Invest 95 and what could become 'Jerry'. Notice there is a spread from Mexico to a turn toward the northern Gulf Coast. We need to keep a close eye on this. #NHC has development chances between 60%-70% over the next 2-5days
Like · · Share · 28 minutes ago

[ROCK]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2013091718/navgem_mslp_pcpn_watl_13.png

sort of looks like the UKMET run from earlier.

78hrs

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_14.png


102hr...going to be picked up I think on this run...deep front.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_14.png

144hr....nope missed it... but looks like moving to NGOM...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_14.png

Rock..... Think you're suppose to put links in the URL tab.

my URL is on...hmmm..maybe I should put picures

[ROCK]

Seriously Rock,

The euro and navgem showing this system still down deep in the boc at this time next week is highly suspect. Like pt said just can't see any scenario that once this gets back out over water it stays there for a solid week without going into mexico just like ingrid did. I know you remember the early models showing that sitting out there forever before moving north into south texas.

I am just the guidance messenger...dont shoot me! but I am also a NAVGEM/EURO hugger so I tend to follow those models. Until they change I lean on them for now.

[chaser1]

Seriously Rock,

The euro and navgem showing this system still down deep in the boc at this time next week is highly suspect. Like pt said just can't see any scenario that once this gets back out over water it stays there for a solid week without going into mexico just like ingrid did. I know you remember the early models showing that sitting out there forever before moving north into south texas.

I am just the guidance messenger...dont shoot me! but I am also a NAVGEM/EURO hugger so I tend to follow those models. Until they change I lean on them for now.

This season has been surely been lack-luster and limited in overall tropical activity & longevity of tracks. 95L might just be ACE-hole to catch up on a little bit of the anticipated Accumulated Cyclone Energy

Any guesses on this systems' ultimate lowest pressure???

[ROCK]

both FIM8 and FIM9 think this hangs out over the BOC for some time before moving up destroying NO....so now you have 4 models showing something similiar right now. Sure it will change....

http://fim.noaa.gov/


hey Chaser1----not sure but the GOM is fueled and ready for take off if the upper levels let it....

[vbhoutex]

Seriously Rock,

The euro and navgem showing this system still down deep in the boc at this time next week is highly suspect. Like pt said just can't see any scenario that once this gets back out over water it stays there for a solid week without going into mexico just like ingrid did. I know you remember the early models showing that sitting out there forever before moving north into south texas.

Seems like I remember Opal hanging out down there for several days until a front picked her up.

I was hoping I wasn't the only one that remembered that. Opal took out my parents sailboat and did several thousand dollars damage to their roof.
I'm watching this one closely from Houston hoping I don't need to take off for Florida to help my mom and that neither one of us has to deal with whatever 95L becomes unless it is just rains and light winds.

[TideJoe]

Seriously Rock,

The euro and navgem showing this system still down deep in the boc at this time next week is highly suspect. Like pt said just can't see any scenario that once this gets back out over water it stays there for a solid week without going into mexico just like ingrid did. I know you remember the early models showing that sitting out there forever before moving north into south texas.

Seems like I remember Opal hanging out down there for several days until a front picked her up.

I was hoping I wasn't the only one that remembered that. Opal took out my parents sailboat and did several thousand dollars damage to their roof.
I'm watching this one closely from Houston hoping I don't need to take off for Florida to help my mom and that neither one of us has to deal with whatever 95L becomes unless it is just rains and light winds.

I lived in coastal Alabama at the time and we thought we were going to get smoked, but that front pushed her a little east of Pensacola.