ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#81 Postby **Fego** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 7:35 am

TCPG RAL page says: "At 0600 UTC, 10 October 2013, DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL98) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 10.6°N and 29.4°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 8 kt at a bearing of 270 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb.: "

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... /al982013/

#82 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 7:55 am

12z Best Track.

AL, 98, 2013101012, , BEST, 0, 106N, 320W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S

#83 Postby **Fego** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:03 am

Cycloneye, moving due West, Right?

#84 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:05 am

Fego wrote:Cycloneye, moving due West, Right?

Moving 280 degrees west at 14kts,more faster than before.

LATCUR = 10.6N LONCUR = 32.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 14KT

blp · #85 Postby **blp** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:14 am

cycloneye wrote:
Fego wrote:Cycloneye, moving due West, Right?

Moving 280 degrees west at 14kts,more faster than before.

LATCUR = 10.6N LONCUR = 32.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 14KT

Yes, It is finally moving which is good because it was like stuck in the mud the last few days. I think the islands need to keep an eye on this. It may have a chance at reaching TS strength in the next few days. The UKmet which is very conservative is still bullish on this.

blp · #86 Postby **blp** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 9:11 am

It does look better this morning and it has a good spin going on.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/98L/imagery/rgb_lalo-animated.gif

floridasun78 · #87 Postby **floridasun78** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 9:12 am

so going pass east of islands?

blp · #88 Postby **blp** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 9:16 am

Vorticity is much improved. Especially at the 500 level.

HurricaneDREW92 · #89 Postby **HurricaneDREW92** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 11:21 am

Looking good where might this go long-term?

floridasun78 · #90 Postby **floridasun78** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 11:26 am

HurricaneDREW92 wrote:Looking good where might this go long-term?

this look like going going be weaker by sat go out to sea

Sanibel · #91 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 11:47 am

Looks like #3 since the poll (Uses up all of my predicted 3 remaining storms). Now I'm in trouble because there will probably be another late Caribbean system.

Gustywind · #92 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 11:48 am

8 AM TWD

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N29W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 29W AND
34W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO
14N BETWEEN 28W AND 38W. THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM
HAS NOT IMPROVED...EVEN THOUGH ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 KNOTS.

#93 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 12:27 pm

2 PM TWO stay with the same %.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO
FORM TONIGHT OR FRIDAY BEFORE UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL LEVEL WINDS
BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR THE DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

#94 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 1:33 pm

18z Best Track.

AL, 98, 2013101018, , BEST, 0, 106N, 330W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S

HurricaneTracker2031 · #95 Postby **HurricaneTracker2031** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 2:15 pm

My latest opinion on NHC Invest 98L...http://goo.gl/86UOOE

Synopsis

98L has the chance to develop only today and tomorrow before environmental conditions becoming harsh...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
This post in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Hammy · #96 Postby **Hammy** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 2:18 pm

I'm pretty much done with this system as its still quite elongated and is now running into southwesterly shear.

#97 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 3:30 pm

I remain unimpressed. Probably won't develop. May cause a few showers across NE Caribbean in a week.

HurricaneTracker2031 · #98 Postby **HurricaneTracker2031** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 4:23 pm

It still has work to do...

hurricanes1234 · #99 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 4:34 pm

Hammy wrote:I'm pretty much done with this system as its still quite elongated and is now running into southwesterly shear.

Exactly. Has happened with nearly all invests in this area in 2013. There would be hype that it would develop into something relatively strong, yet all it becomes is a sheared and/or dried out weak TS, or more commonly, never develops in the first place and dies as an invest. There has only been one Cape-Verde hurricane this year, but many phantom hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic. And I don't see that amount of real hurricanes in that region changing anytime soon, if at all. Everything this year has been overly hostile from day one.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Hammy · #100 Postby **Hammy** » Thu Oct 10, 2013 6:24 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Exactly. Has happened with nearly all invests in this area in 2013. There would be hype that it would develop into something relatively strong, yet all it becomes is a sheared and/or dried out weak TS, or more commonly, never develops in the first place and dies as an invest.

What is worsening the letdown when things don't develop, I think, is the utter failure the models have become (especially the GFS) after the "upgrade."

ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

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