WPAC: DAMREY - Typhoon

[Meow]

Damrey is also the first name to be used thrice by the JMA since 2000.

[euro6208]

only at 1.0 so no upgrade

TXPQ26 KNES 281512
TCSWNP

A. DAMREY (95W)

B. 28/1432Z

C. 26.2N

D. 145.8E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/W0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS... 3/10 BROKEN BANDING FOR DT=1.0. MET AND PT AGREE.
FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI

[yulou]

it's crazy,will it landfall at Shanghai?
but in fact,EC is always crazy

[Meow]

TS 1210 (DAMREY)
Issued at 18:40 UTC, 28 July 2012

<Analyses at 28/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N25°50'(25.8°)
E147°00'(147.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE330km(180NM)
SW220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 29/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°35'(26.6°)
E144°50'(144.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 30/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°30'(27.5°)
E141°20'(141.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 31/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N28°55'(28.9°)
E136°55'(136.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 01/18 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N30°25'(30.4°)
E132°50'(132.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Radius of probability circle 650km(350NM)

<Forecast for 02/18 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N31°35'(31.6°)
E128°10'(128.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Radius of probability circle 850km(450NM)

[cycloneye]

Up to 40kts.

TS 1210 (DAMREY)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 29 July 2012
<Analyses at 29/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N25°50'(25.8°)
E146°30'(146.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE330km(180NM)
SW220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 30/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°30'(26.5°)
E144°35'(144.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 31/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°30'(27.5°)
E141°20'(141.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 01/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N28°50'(28.8°)
E136°20'(136.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL460km(250NM)

[euro6208]

expected to intensify very slowly...

WTPN32 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 26.0N 145.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0N 145.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 26.1N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 26.3N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 26.7N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 27.6N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 29.5N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 31.8N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 33.7N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 26.0N 145.1E.
TOPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (DAMREY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (SAOLA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (DAMREY)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (DAMREY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) CONTINUES TO DEPICT A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION. A 282224Z SSMIS 91H IMAGE DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING
LLCC WITH MULTIPLE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. TD 11W IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL UPPER-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT), NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND CONVERGENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT). THE
BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED OVER THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. TD 11W IS POSITIONED SOUTH OF A COL REGION PRODUCED BY
AN UPPER-LEVEL MIDLATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGGING EAST OF JAPAN,
AND IS, THEREFORE, TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON MSI AND THE SSMIS IMAGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TD 11W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 36 AND IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY WITHIN THAT
SAME TIME PERIOD DUE TO THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 36, TD
11W IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES
EASTWARD AND THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE STRENGTHENS. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 ALTHOUGH
GFDN SHOWS ONLY A 72-HOUR TRACK AND WEAKENS THE SYSTEM. THE JTWC
FORECAST IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD AND FASTER THAN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. THE JTWC FORECAST ALSO FAVORS THE ECMWF, JGSM, AND
UKMO SOLUTIONS, WHICH SHOW A FASTER TRACK TOWARD SHANGHAI. TD 11W IS
FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS DUE TO THE MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 11W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE IN
LARGE PART TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE MUCH LARGER AND STRONGER 10W NEAR
TAIWAN, WHICH SHOULD INCREASE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DISRUPT
OUTFLOW. TD 11W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL BY TAU 120. THERE IS
STILL A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SOME WEAK INTERACTION AS THE TWO
SYSTEMS APPROACH TO ABOUT 500 NM BY 02/00Z; HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT
BINARY INTERACTION IS NOT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.//
NNNN

i expect JTWC to increase the winds to tropical storm strength based on cimss estimates showing a tropical storm...


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.3 / 998.9mb/ 33.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.3 2.5 3.0

[Typhoon Hunter]

expected to intensify very slowly...

Not according to JMA, they're expecting a typhoon out of Damrey. Amazing the difference between JMA and JTWC with both Damrey and Saola! JMA upgrading storms much earlier which is not the norm!

[Meow]

The JMA estimates Damrey will become a typhoon on 1 August.





TS 1210 (DAMREY)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 29 July 2012

<Analyses at 29/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N25°55'(25.9°)
E145°50'(145.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE330km(180NM)
SW220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 30/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°10'(26.2°)
E144°05'(144.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 31/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°35'(27.6°)
E140°05'(140.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 01/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N29°20'(29.3°)
E134°40'(134.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL480km(260NM)

<Forecast for 02/06 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N31°00'(31.0°)
E129°00'(129.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Radius of probability circle 650km(350NM)

<Forecast for 03/06 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N32°20'(32.3°)
E125°50'(125.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Radius of probability circle 850km(450NM)

[euro6208]

WTPN32 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 25.9N 144.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 25.9N 144.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 26.2N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 26.6N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 27.4N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 28.3N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 30.3N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 32.5N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 34.4N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 26.0N 144.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 11W (DAMREY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (SAOLA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN




WDPN32 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (DAMREY) WARNING NR
04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 11W (DAMREY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS
CONSOLIDATION WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC);
HOWEVER THE OVERALL CONVECTION HAS SEEN A SLIGHT DECREASE WITHIN THE
CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. THE LLCC REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION AS A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
CELL HAS BEEN HINDERING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SIDES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A SECOND TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE EAST HAS BEEN
APPROACHING TS 11W AND IS BEGINNING TO ENHANCE EASTWARD OUTFLOW. TS
11W IS POSITIONED SOUTH OF A COL REGION PRODUCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL
MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING EAST OF JAPAN, AND IS,
THEREFORE, TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION BASED ON EIR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TD 11W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72, SLOWLY
INTENSIFYING UNDER MARGINAL SURFACE CONDITIONS AND A COMPLICATED
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. TRACK SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AFTER TAU 36 AS
A SHORTWAVE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ALLOWING THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) STEERING TS 11W TO BUILD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH A TIGHT GROUPING THROUGH TAU 72.
THE CURRENT TRACK IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO ITS
STRONGEST INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND THE MARGINAL SURFACE CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS
AND EVENTUALLY MAKE LANDFALL PRIOR TO TAU 120. ADDITIONALLY THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY OUTFLOW FROM TS 10W WILL HINDER THE OUTFLOW OF TS
11W IN LATER TAUS; HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT BINARY INTERACTION IS NOT
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 / 996.6mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.5 2.5

[Meow]

TS 1210 (DAMREY)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 29 July 2012

<Analyses at 29/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N25°50'(25.8°)
E145°50'(145.8°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE330km(180NM)
SW220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 30/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°40'(26.7°)
E143°35'(143.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 31/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N28°35'(28.6°)
E138°25'(138.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 01/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N30°35'(30.6°)
E132°05'(132.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL480km(260NM)

<Forecast for 02/12 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N32°20'(32.3°)
E127°55'(127.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Radius of probability circle 520km(280NM)

<Forecast for 03/12 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N33°50'(33.8°)
E124°50'(124.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Radius of probability circle 700km(375NM)

[euro6208]

Damrey is also the first name to be used thrice by the JMA since 2000.

off topic but since 2000, damrey is probrably one of my favorite typhoons due to its very well form eye embedded in a behemoth of a circulation



in May of 2000, Super Typhoon Damrey peaked at 180 mph....

First name from the new asian typhoon name list turns into our first tropical storm, first typhoon, first super typhoon and first category 5 super typhoon...

[Meow]

The JMA estimates Damrey will be with only 55-knot winds.





TS 1210 (DAMREY)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 29 July 2012

<Analyses at 29/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N25°35'(25.6°)
E145°30'(145.5°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE330km(180NM)
SW220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 30/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°05'(26.1°)
E144°05'(144.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 30/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°50'(26.8°)
E142°10'(142.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 31/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N28°40'(28.7°)
E136°55'(136.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 01/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N31°05'(31.1°)
E130°25'(130.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL460km(250NM)

<Forecast for 02/18 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N32°55'(32.9°)
E126°05'(126.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Radius of probability circle 520km(280NM)

<Forecast for 03/18 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N35°20'(35.3°)
E123°25'(123.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Radius of probability circle 700km(375NM)

[euro6208]

expected to intensify very slowly to a strong tropical storm

WTPN32 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 25.5N 145.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5N 145.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 26.0N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 26.7N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 28.0N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 29.1N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 31.4N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 31.9N 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 25.6N 144.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 11W (DAMREY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (SAOLA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN



WDPN32 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (DAMREY) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 11W (DAMREY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND DISPLACED CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BEING HELD HIGHER THAN THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS BASED ON A 300032Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING
NUMEROUS 35-40 KNOT WIND BARBS AROUND STORM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL EAST OF
TS 11W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE OUTFLOW FOR THE STORM AND THE TUTT CELL
TO THE SOUTH THAT HAD BEEN PROVIDING CONVERGENCE ALOFT HAS FILLED
CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS ALSO MODERATE (15-20
KNOT) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACTING UPON THE STORM AND RECENT
ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP IS STARTING TO SHOW DRY AIR
SURROUNDING THE WESTERN SEMI CIRCLE. TRACK SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN SLOW UNTIL THE DOMINANT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS IN.
THE CURRENT POSITION CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BASED UPON MSI.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TS 11W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72,
SLOWLY INTENSIFYING UNDER A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. TS 11W
SHOULD REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS NEAR TAU 48, SOUTH OF
KYUSHU. TRACK SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AFTER TAU 24 AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A TIGHT GROUPING
THROUGH TAU 72. AT TAU 72, TS 11W SHOULD START TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE CONSIDERABLY AS THE OUTFLOW FROM TS 10W, FORECASTED TO BE
ONLY 400NM FROM TS 11W AT THAT TIME, SEVERELY DEGRADES THE UPPER-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE CURRENT TRACK IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE.
C. TS 11W WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT UNTIL TAU 96 WHERE MODELS SPREAD DUE TO SLIGHT INTERACTION
WITH TS 1OW OVER LAND. THIS INTERACTION, IF ANY, SHOULD MOVE THE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH AND FASTER. TS 11W WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE
OUTER PERIPHERY OF TS 10W BY TAU 96. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TXPQ26 KNES 300318
TCSWNP

A. 11W (DAMREY)

B. 30/0232Z

C. 25.6N

D. 144.9E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=1.5 BASED ON .3 BANDING ON LOG10 SPIRAL. PT=2.0.
MET=2.5 FT BASED ON PT.



CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 / 994.4mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 3.0 3.0

[RobWESTPACWX]

I honestly thing this storm is not going to develop further, its wrapped in dry air and really is not in the best area for development. What are your thoughts?

[mrbagyo]

big burst of convection, and somehow manage to get some distance away from the influence of the TUTT cell to the east

[euro6208]

WTPN32 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 26.1N 144.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.1N 144.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 27.0N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 28.0N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 29.3N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 30.5N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 32.5N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 31.0N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 26.3N 143.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 11W (DAMREY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
301200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND
311500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 10W (SAOLA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN



WDPN32 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (DAMREY) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 11W (DAMREY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED, ALBEIT PARTLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE
BANDING, MOSTLY TO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY, SUPPORTED BY OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM CIMS, IS
HIGHER THAN THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND
RJTD, TO REFLECT THE SUSTAINED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL EAST OF TS
11W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE OUTFLOW. THERE IS LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15
KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
THE CURRENT POSITION CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BASED UPON MSI.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TS 11W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72,
AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS NEAR TAU 36.
TRACK SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AFTER TAU 24 AS THE STR BUILDS. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN TIGHTLY GROUPED THROUGH TAU 72. AT TAU 72, TS
11W SHOULD START TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS THE OUTFLOW FROM TY 10W,
FORECAST TO BE AT ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH, SEVERELY DEGRADES
THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE CURRENT TRACK IS BASED ON THE
CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 11W WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS
AND FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL AND DISSIPATED BY TAU
96. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK DUE
TO THE BINARY INTERACTION BETWEEN 11W AND 10W. //
NNNN

[euro6208]

TXPQ26 KNES 301518
TCSWNP

A. 11W (DAMREY)

B. 30/1432Z

C. 27.1N

D. 143.2E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU

H. REMARKS...11W HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 6 HRS. 1147Z AMSU
IMAGE AND MTSAT SWIR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE LCC IS SOUTH OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION. 4/10 W BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET = 3.5. PT = 3.0. FT
IS BASED ON PT.