Damrey UPGRADED to TYPHOON! WTPN32 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 015
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 11W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 30.5N 130.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.5N 130.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 31.7N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 32.9N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 33.6N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 34.0N 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 34.9N 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 30.8N 129.5E.
TYPHOON 11W (DAMREY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS AND HAS RECENTLY BEEN UPGRADED TO TYPHOON STATUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 10W (SAOLA)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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WDPN32 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (DAMREY) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (DAMREY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS AND HAS RECENTLY BEEN UPGRADED TO TYPHOON
STATUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 010709Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING AROUND THE MAJORITY OF THE LLCC AS IT TRACKS OVER THE
WARMEST REGIONS OF THE KUROSHIO CURRENT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED IMAGERY ALONG WITH RADAR FIXES FROM
RJTD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HEDGED ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55-65 KNOTS FROM PGTW
AND KNES RESPECTIVELY DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT IN OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE OF A 65 KNOT SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 11W
RESIDES APPROXIMATELY 08 DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AXIS AND A SMALL TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL IS LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS MARGINAL AND CURRENTLY NOT BEING ENHANCED BY THE TUTT TO
THE SOUTHEAST. OUTFLOW TO THE EAST REMAINS ROBUST AND THE WESTWARD
OUTFLOW ALSO REMAINS INTACT DESPITE INTERACTION FROM THE OUTFLOW
BEING PRODUCED BY TY 10W, AS EVIDENT IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS WEAK (05-10 KNOTS) OVER
THE SYSTEM BUT A LARGE AREA OF UPPER CONVERGENCE REMAINS OVER THE
YELLOW SEA. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TY 11W IS FORECAST TO STAY ON A STEADY TRACK TOWARD MAINLAND
CHINA, TRACKING QUICKLY WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO
THE NORTH. INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR BY
TAU 24 AND THEREAFTER BEGIN TO DECREASE DUE TO A COLD POOL OF SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFF THE COAST OF SHANGHAI. TY 11W WILL THEN
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVERLAND THRU TAUS 36-48 AND HAVE COMPLETED
DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT UP
TO THE LANDFALL POSITION WHERE IT THEN BEGINS TO SPREAD. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 24 BASED ON THE
TIGHT ENVELOPE OF OBJECTIVE AIDS. THE FORECAST POSITIONS OVERLAND
ARE KEPT SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR FRICTIONAL
DRAG, INCREASING VWS, AND DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE
REGION. THIS DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALSO ACCOUNTS FOR THE
MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVERLAND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.//
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