SPAC: Freda - Ex-Tropical

[supercane4867]

15kts 1010mb 8.7S 168.3E

[Grifforzer]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 26/0931 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD05F CENTRE {[1001]} ANALYSED NEAR 8.1S 167.4E
AT 260600UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGRESS CELCIUS.
SYSTEM LIES UNDER A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRNOMENT.
THE CIRCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWESTWARDS
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

[supercane4867]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.7S 168.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 890 NM NORTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION HAS
BEEN FLARING FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS NEAR A BROAD, DISORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 26/1013 METOP-A 89H MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED NEAR A
RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF WEAK DIFFLUENCE AND MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Grifforzer]

** WTPS11 NFFN 270000 ***
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A01 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 27/0141 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE [1002HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.2S 163.8E
AT 270000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 12
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTRE PAST 24 HOURS. LLCC PARTIALLY
EXPOSED. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION AND IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRNOMENT. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA.
SST AROUND 30 DEGRESS CELCIUS.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 271200 UTC 8.8S 163.3E MOV SW AT 04 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 280000 UTC 9.5S 162.8E MOV SW AT 04 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 281200 UTC 10.3S 162.2E MOV SW AT 05 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 290000 UTC 11.1S 161.7E MOV SW AT 05 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

[mrbagyo]

From JTWC:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.2S
164.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5S 163.9E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING DEVELOPING ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) ALSO EVIDENT IN A 262257Z ASCAT PASS. THE LLCC LIES
BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
NUMERICAL MODELS, INCLUDING GFS, NOGAPS, AND ECMWF, CONTINUE TO
FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE INTO A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS AND INTENSIFICATION FORECASTED BY MULTIPLE NUMERICAL
MODELS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

Position is almost the same to that of RSMC NADI.

[Grifforzer]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A03 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 27/1357 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE 1002HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.0S 162.9E
AT 271200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. DEPRESSION MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED NEAR THE SYSTEM IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. LLCC DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION AND IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRNOMENT. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA.
SST AROUND 30 DEGRESS CELCIUS.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 280000 UTC 9.8S 162.3E MOV SW AT 05 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 281200 UTC 10.5S 161.7E MOV SW AT 05 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 290000 UTC 11.4S 161.4E MOV SW AT 05 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 291200 UTC 12.2S 161.2E MOV SW AT 04 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

[HurricaneBill]

Next name on the SPAC list: "Freda"

[Grifforzer]

** WTPS11 NFFN 280000 ***
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A05 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 28/0159 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE 999HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5S 161.4E
AT 280000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 12
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 25 KNOTS INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTENT PAST 12 HOURS. LLCC DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. SYSTEM
LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION AND IN A MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRNOMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 30
DEGRESS CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.30 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING DT=2.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS YEILDING
T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS MOVE TD05F SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTH WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IS HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 281200 UTC 11.4S 160.7E MOV SW AT 06 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 290000 UTC 12.1S 160.4E MOV SSW AT 05 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 291200 UTC 12.9S 160.3E MOV S AT 05 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 300000 UTC 13.9S 160.4E MOV S AT 05 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

[mrbagyo]

Category Cyclone 3 has mean winds 64-85 knots with a central pressure 970-945 hPa( RSMC NADI)

from jtwc..
REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5S
163.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 163.7E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM EAST
OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 270914Z SSMIS PASS.
THE LLCC LIES BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. MULTIPLE NUMERICAL MODELS, INCLUDING GFS AND NOGAPS,
FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE INTO A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS AND MODEL DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[euro6208]

WTPS31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 10.7S 160.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 160.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 11.4S 159.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 12.1S 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 12.9S 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 13.8S 159.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 15.1S 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.7S 160.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 19.0S 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 10.9S 160.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND A
281110Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRM THAT TC 05P HAS REACHED THE WARNING
THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING
AGENCIES AND A 280902Z SSMIS PASS. TC 05P IS TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. TC 05P IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AND TRACKS TOWARD THE
BASE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN AUSTRALIA.
GENERALLY POLEWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND PASSAGE OVER WARM
WATER WILL SUPPORT STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72.
THEREAFTER, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER
WATER WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN POOR
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF TC 05P, WITH THE GFS AND GFDN
SHOWING A STEADY RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES,
NOGAPS SHOWING A SLOWER POLEWARD TRACK FOLLOWED BY RECURVATURE LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND THE UKMET AND ECMWF SHOWING THE CYCLONE
MEANDERING POLEWARD WITHIN THE DEEP TROPICS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR AT
THIS POINT THAT ANY DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BE DEEP
ENOUGH OR EXTEND FAR ENOUGH EQUATORWARD TO INDUCE FULL RECURVATURE
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE, THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS
FOR A STEADY POLEWARD TRACK FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN BETWEEN
TAU 96 AND TAU 120. THIS FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF FORECAST SCENARIO.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI 271430Z DEC 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPS21 PGTW 271430). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z AND 291500Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPS10 PGTW 281507

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (SW OF SOLOMON IS)

B. 28/1432Z

C. 10.9S

D. 160.2E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .55 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


UEHARA

[Meow]

It is 05F (Fiji) and 05P/94P (JTWC), and now it is also 03U (Australia).

WWSO21 ABRF 280518
IDQ20015
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

SATELLITE ANALYSIS BULLETIN
0518 UTC 28 December 2012
Tropical Low 05F / 03U / 94P
280500UTC
10.9S 161.0E
Analysis based on: MTSAT IR/VIS 280430UTC
Latitude Detection Sum: 10
Longitude Detection Sum: 8
T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
Curved band of 0.3 gives DT of 2.0. MET and PAT agree. FT based on DT.
WHR BRISBANE

[supercane4867]

WTPS11 NFFN 281800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A08 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 28/1801 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDA CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 160.3E AT
281700 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS
INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ORGANISATION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS.
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN
UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRNOMENT.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE TO SOUTH. SST AROUND 30 DEGRESS CELCIUS. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=3.0, MET AND
PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, THUS YEILDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT THEN SOUTH
WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 290500 UTC 12.3S 159.9E MOV SSW AT 04 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 291700 UTC 12.9S 159.9E MOV S AT 04 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 300500 UTC 13.7S 159.9E MOV S AT 04 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 301700 UTC 14.5S 160.0E MOV S AT 04 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC FREDA WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 282000 UTC.

[Meow]

You can edit the title to SPAC: FREDA - Tropical Cyclone

[supercane4867]

You can edit the title to SPAC: FREDA - Tropical Cyclone

I was about to do so

[supercane4867]

[supercane4867]

Is it forming an eye or just a slot of dry air?

[mrbagyo]

Is it forming an eye or just a slot of dry air?

Clearly, that an eye forming, and its about to close the eyewall.

[euro6208]

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FREDA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 12.9S 160.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 160.4E



REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 160.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (FREDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED, TIGHTLY WRAPPED
SYSTEM WITH A 6 NM EYE THAT HAS RAPIDLY IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE IR
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON
THE HIGHER END OF AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 65 TO 90 KNOTS. TC 05P HAS MAINTAINED RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING ENHANCED BY THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CORAL SEA. TC 05P HAS BEEN TRACKING ERRATICALLY
TAKING A QUASISTATIONARY TRACK ON THE 06Z POSITION AND NOW MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) WITH A
GENERAL TRACK MOTION SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNTIL A DEEP
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITS TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL FORCE
A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN TOWARD NEW CALEDONIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN POOR AGREEMENT AND CONTINUES TO BE ERRATIC. GFDN CONTINUES TO
DRIVE THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST AND EGRR ERRATICALLY TRACKS THE SYSTEM
INITIALLY TO THE WEST AND THEN TAKES A QUICK TURN TO THE EAST IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS. THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF
SOLUTION AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 05P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 TO A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR INCREASES AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTION SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
300300Z AND 301500Z.//
NNNN

[supercane4867]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 29/1957 UTC 2012 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDA CENTRE 955HPA CAT 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
13.5S 160.4E AT 291800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS IR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80
KNOTS INCREASING TO 85 KNOTS BY 301200 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 140 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SW
QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NW
QUADRANT