WPAC: Sonamu - Severe Tropical Storm

[Meow]

South of Guam.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS predicts that it will be east of Visayas. EARLY START!


Quite organized, more organized than Wukong as an Invest. Happy New Year!

[euro6208]

WOOHOO! Happy New Year to everyone on planet earth...

The West Pacific seems to be happy like us producing our first invest of 2013!

[supercane4867]

Very interesting track predicated by GFS, could be a crossover storm into the Indian Ocean

[dexterlabio]

This is now a tropical depression as per the RSMC.

[dexterlabio]

JMA:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 05N 141E WEST 10 KT.

GFS is continuously showing this as a rainmaker in southern PI then as a more organized tropical cyclone in southern Vietnam.

[stormstrike]

^yeah..almost similar with euro model...

[euro6208]

TXPQ21 KNES 010328
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)

B. 01/0232Z

C. 4.7N

D. 140.6E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...INITIAL CLASSIFICATION FOR SYSTEM. VERY BROAD OUTER
BAND SEEN IN NORTHEAST QUADRANT WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NEAR SYSTEM
CENTER. NOT CERTAIN THAT THERE IS A CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT
AN EVIDENT RELATIVE ROTATION IN ANIMATED VIS IMAGERY. 2 TENTHS BANDING
GIVES DT=1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RUMINSKI

[euro6208]

92W FLOATER

slowly becoming organized...

[dexterlabio]

PAGASA said this has a little chance to become a tropical cyclone once within the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Yeah like what happened with Wukong last Christmas.

[mrbagyo]

wow, so its developing...I've been monitoring this for quite some day, the last time i checked it - its just an LLC without much convection south of chuuk. this one is moving quite fast due to strong easterlies... GFS and NOGAPS are doing good...

[euro6208]

TXPQ21 KNES 011529
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)

B. 01/1432Z

C. 5.5N

D. 134.8E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER WAS USED FOR THE POSITION AND THIS
RESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM CONTINUITY...OVER 300 KM FROM
0832Z FIX. SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 2/10 BANDING TO THE NW OF THE CSC RESULTS
IN A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT. CANNOT CONFIRM
EXISTENCE OF CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION DUE TO LACK OF MICROWAVE DATA.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[euro6208]

i think it has a much better chance in the south china sea...heavy rains lashing palau at the moment

[supercane4867]

WWJP25 RJTD 011200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 011200.
WARNING VALID 021200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 05N 138E WEST 15 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[Meow]

Will there be a January tropical storm in the Northern Hemisphere?



TD
Issued at 13:25 UTC, 2 January 2013

<Analyses at 02/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N7°35'(7.6°)
E128°00'(128.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 03/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°00'(9.0°)
E121°00'(121.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[Meow]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.5N 128.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE (20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO ENHANCING POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AS
EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS, BASED ON A 020404Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS, ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

still at 1.0 but this is looking alot like a tropical storm about to make landfall. i've seen worser...once again, dvorak downplaying the excitement...

over 1000 dead from bopha with over 800 more missing, this area is still getting pounded...wukong last month and now this bringing plenty of rain to devastated areas...

[Meow]

still at 1.0 but this is looking alot like a tropical storm about to make landfall. i've seen worser...once again, dvorak downplaying the excitement...

over 1000 dead from bopha with over 800 more missing, this area is still getting pounded...wukong last month and now this bringing plenty of rain to devastated areas...

If it is upgraded to a tropical storm, it will be named Sonamu (1301). I never saw a tropical storm in January living in neither the Sulu Sea nor the South China Sea before.

[euro6208]

still at 1.0 but this is looking alot like a tropical storm about to make landfall. i've seen worser...once again, dvorak downplaying the excitement...

over 1000 dead from bopha with over 800 more missing, this area is still getting pounded...wukong last month and now this bringing plenty of rain to devastated areas...

If it is upgraded to a tropical storm, it will be named Sonamu (1301). I never saw a tropical storm in January living in neither the Sulu Sea nor the South China Sea before.

the last time we had a tropical storm in january was in 2008 when tropical storm 01W developed in the SCS...the only tropical cyclone last decade (2000-2010 and counting) to ever develop in the SCS...



before that, we had Tropical Storm Kulap 60 knots- 2005 and Tropical Storm Yanyan 50 knots- 2003...in the open ocean...

to me, it doesn't matter if a storm forms early, each season is like on steriods or something...

[Meow]

the last time we had a tropical storm in january was in 2008 when tropical storm 01W developed in the SCS...the only tropical cyclone last decade (2000-2010 and counting) to ever develop in the SCS...

I meant a tropical storm officially named by the JMA. The first one in 2008 was Neoguri, also an impressive early typhoon.

Also, I think the JTWC still has not taken the system seriously, as the JMA already expects that it will become a TS within 24 hours.