WPAC: INVEST 94W / N. Pacific Bomb Storm

[Meow]

euro develops this into a weak TS before racing off to the northeast passing south of japan and out to sea...

So the ECWMF estimates that 94W may become a week TS and then transform into an extratropical cyclone.

[Meow]

This is what 94W may be in 5 days. A huge monster.

[supercane4867]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.9N 129.3E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 129.1E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EAST OF `
ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A BROAD AND PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION MOSTLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS 
NOW 08 DEGREES SOUTH OF AND CLOSING IN ON THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE
NORTH. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS WEAKENED TO 10-20 KNOTS, THIS
COUPLED WITH A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, HAS ENHANCED THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION, AS SEEN ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO
THE IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[stormstrike]

they're now in a concensus..




as to what strength..probably a weak one..

[Meow]

they're now in a concensus..

as to what strength..probably a weak one..

Combine those estimations, we could get the results: A weak tropical storm then a strong extratropical cyclone.

[dexterlabio]

maybe another Wukong or Sonamu, a weak TS peaking at around 35-45kts. I am actually only interested to the possibility of a 2nd named TS this month. Besides it is not yet that time of the year when we should expect really significant storms out in the WPAC.

[dexterlabio]

as far as PI is concerned, this is already the 2nd tropical cyclone that entered the country and was named TD "Bising", with winds of up to 45kph.

[Meow]

maybe another Wukong or Sonamu, a weak TS peaking at around 35-45kts. I am actually only interested to the possibility of a 2nd named TS this month. Besides it is not yet that time of the year when we should expect really significant storms out in the WPAC.

I also wonder if this could become a super storm in four days, as what the ECMWF estimates.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5N
129.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 127.2E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
NORTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION OVER A
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 111223Z ASCAT
PASS INDICATES THE LLCC IS WEAK IN NATURE WITH 10-15 KNOTS NEAR THE
CENTER, HOWEVER; GRADIENT INDUCED EASTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
WELL NORTH OF THE LLCC ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1028 MB SUBTROPICAL
HIGH TO THE NORTH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS
NOW 05 DEGREES SOUTH OF AND CLOSING IN ON THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE
NORTH. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS WEAKENED TO 10-20 KNOTS, THIS
COUPLED WITH A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, HAS ENHANCED THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION, AS SEEN ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
DYNAMIC MODEL FIELDS SHOW A TIGHT THICKNESS PACKING OVER THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA AND CYCLONE PHASE SPACE PRODUCTS INDICATE A FAST
TRANSITION INTO A COLD-CORE LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
MEDIUM.

[Meow]

The ECWMF has confirmed that this tropical depression will become a very strong extratropical cyclone in three days.

[dexterlabio]

it looks more extratropical than tropical to me...and it seems it will transition into a cold core soon.

[Meow]

It looks more extratropical now.

[euro6208]

if this was the other months, we don't have to worry about this intensifying but since it's only january, oh well...better luck next time but it's not done yet...

[euro6208]

it looked so promising over the past couple of days but now time is running out for this to become our 2nd TC...oh well...


THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5N
127.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 125.8E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS SHALLOW FLARING CONVECTION OVER AN ILL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 120142Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES THE
LLCC HAS BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY GRADIENT FLOW AND HAS BECOME
INDISCERNIBLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
CROSSED INTO THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) AND RAPIDLY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS HELPING SUSTAIN THE REMNANT CONVECTION BUT THE STRONG VWS
APPEARS TO BE SUPPRESSING ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. IN VIEW OF THE RAPIDLY
DETERIORATING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND THE ABSENCE OF A
WELL-DEFINED LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

[Meow]

it looked so promising over the past couple of days but now time is running out for this to become our 2nd TC...oh well...

This may be one of strongest extratropical cyclones in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean on record.

[euro6208]

very interesting...there is an area of 35 knot winds (tropical storm strength) located northeast of the center...

[Meow]

very interesting...there is an area of 35 knot winds (tropical storm strength) located northeast of the center...

The area may be becoming weather fronts now, so winds can intensify.

[dexterlabio]

this one is definitely non-tropical, more resembling a frontal now.

and i say see you all in April. the first two sprouts of tropical systems this month were quite interesting for me though. high pressure dominant in the WPAC, strong vws, and cold surge from the northeast monsoon...not really the time to expect for some significant systems.

[Typhoon Hunter]

I'm looking forward to tracking this one. I've never seen GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, CMC and NOGAPS so go crazy with a system. They're all pushing for 950hPa or lower mid latitude storm which for global models is pretty amazing.

Consensus passes it south of Japan right now which is good. It's primed to go ballistic in about 48hrs!

[Meow]

The TD will make the extratropical cyclone become very strong.



WWJP25 RJTD 131200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 131200.
WARNING VALID 141200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1000 HPA
AT 29N 129E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING EAST 20 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 29N 129E TO 29N 133E 27N 137E.
COLD FRONT FROM 29N 129E TO 25N 126E 22N 120E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 65 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 600 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 31N 135E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 50
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 35N 144E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
...
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 20N 128E NE 15 KT.
...

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=