SPAC: Oswald - Ex-Tropical

[supercane4867]

15kts-1010mb-12.9S-138.8E

[supercane4867]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.2S 139.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 530 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SCATTERED CONVECTION AROUND A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED IN A
LARGER AREA OF TROUGHING SPANNING ACROSS THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA.
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, SHOW
GENERAL TURNING IN THE AREA WITH PERSISTENT 05 TO 15 KNOTS OF WIND
AND A 2 MB DECREASE IN PRESSURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A 171239Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS 10 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF WITH SOME 25 KNOT
WINDS IN THE CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE LLCC LIES
UNDER A DIVERGENT AREA OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST PROVIDING FAVORABLE OUTFLOW IN A LOW (05-10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (30 TO 32 DEGREES CELSIUS).
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.2S
139.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7S 138.2E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 172345Z METOP-A IMAGE SHOWS WEAK CONVECTIVE
BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
FLARING OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT, BENEATH AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, WITH
NORTHERLY, DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE MORNINGTON ISLAND RADAR DEPICTS A
DEVELOPING, QUASI-STATIONARY LLCC WITH BANDING FORMING OVER THE
SOUTH QUADRANT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SLP AS LOW AS 999MB
WITH SIGNIFICANT 24-HOUR SLP DECREASES OF 4MB; HOWEVER, SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[Hurricane_Luis]

IDQ20023
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 10:52 pm EST on Friday 18 January 2013

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal
areas from Mornington West to Aurukun.

At 10:00 pm EST a Tropical Low was estimated to be
140 kilometres west of Mornington Island and 430 kilometres west southwest of
Kowanyama and
moving west at 11 kilometres per hour.

The low is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24
hours. However, the system may intensify into a tropical cyclone overnight on
Saturday or during Sunday. If this occurs gales are likely to develop in
coastal communities between Mornington West and Aurukun.

People between Mornington West and Aurukun should consider what action they
will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (http://www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

Details of Tropical Low at 10:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.7 degrees South 137.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 90 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbors have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am EST Saturday 19 January.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

[supercane4867]

Mornington Island Radar

[Hurricane_Luis]

The Euro Model run shows Tropical Cyclone developing in the Gulf of Carpentaria at +96 hours



And big flare up of convection pretty much right over the center (red X)

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.6S
135.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 136.9E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A STEADY INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
LLCC CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA,
BUT CURRENTLY REMAINS OVER LAND. RADAR IMAGERY FROM MORNINGTON
ISLAND, AUSTRALIA SUPPORTS THE LLCC APPROACHING THE COAST. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED POLEWARD OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IN A REGION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE, WHICH IS HAMPERING OUTFLOW. OBSERVATIONS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LLCC INDICATE A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF APPROXIMATELY
998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB.
BASED ON THE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND THE LLCC APPROACHING THE
GULF OF CARPENTARIA, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

[Hurricane_Luis]

IDQ20023
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued at 10:37 pm EST on Sunday 20 January 2013

A Cyclone WATCH is now current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas
from Burketown to Mapoon, including Mornington Island

At 8:00 pm EST a Tropical Low was estimated to be
75 kilometres east southeast of Borroloola and
115 kilometres west northwest of NT/Qld Border and
moving east at 11 kilometres per hour.

The low is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24
hours. However, the system may intensify into a tropical cyclone during
Tuesday. If this occurs gales will be likely to develop in coastal communities
between Burketown and Mapoon, including Mornington Island.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for coastal areas in the Gulf of
Carpentaria.

Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.2 degrees South 137.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 90 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 999 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am EST Monday 21 January.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

[supercane4867]

Making landfall again with an eye-like feature

[supercane4867]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0629 UTC 21/01/2013
Name: Tropical Cyclone Oswald
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.6S
Longitude: 141.1E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: east northeast [075 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [17 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm [150 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 21/1800: 14.5S 142.1E: 040 [070]: 030 [055]: 993
+24: 22/0600: 13.9S 143.1E: 065 [120]: 020 [035]: 998
+36: 22/1800: 14.5S 144.1E: 085 [155]: 020 [035]: 997
+48: 23/0600: 15.5S 144.1E: 105 [190]: 020 [035]: 997
+60: 23/1800: 16.6S 143.6E: 120 [225]: 020 [035]: 997
+72: 24/0600: 17.4S 143.1E: 140 [265]: 020 [035]: 997
REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.7 degree wrap on a log 10
spiral. DT is 3.0. MET not used as the system was over land 24 hours ago. FT
based on DT.

Northeast movement is expected to continue until landfall. Some numerical
guidance indicates more NNE'ly movement after 6 hours, but will assume this
occurs after landfall at this stage.

[euro6208]

WTPS32 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OSWALD) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OSWALD) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 16.0S 141.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 141.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.2S 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 14.7S 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 14.8S 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 15.6S 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.6S 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.7S 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.8S 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 141.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (OSWALD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE RADAR LOOP FROM MORNINGTON
ISLAND SHOW A WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH WELL DEVELOPED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. AN OLDER
210023Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED 30 KNOT WINDS WERE LOCATED IN ALL
QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM. BASED ON RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND ADRM, THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA ARE VERY FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT (30 TO 31 DEGREES CELSIUS). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF A
DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE, WHICH IS CREATING LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW FOR THE SYSTEM.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER LAND IN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND REMAIN OVER THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN KEPT STEADY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, AS AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LLCC
WILL PERSIST NEAR THE EASTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA WITH AVAILABLE
ENERGY FROM THE WARM MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS OVER THE CORAL SEA. DUE
TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 210421Z JAN 13
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 211430). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
212100Z AND 220900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Cyclone Oswald

[supercane4867]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1904 UTC 21/01/2013
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.0S
Longitude: 141.9E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: northeast [046 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 991 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 260 nm [480 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 22/0600: 14.4S 143.0E: 050 [090]: 030 [055]: 995
+24: 22/1800: 15.1S 143.9E: 075 [135]: 030 [055]: 995
+36: 23/0600: 16.0S 143.6E: 095 [175]: 025 [045]: 997
+48: 23/1800: 16.6S 143.1E: 115 [210]: 025 [045]: 997
+60: 24/0600: 17.4S 142.9E: 130 [245]: 025 [045]: 997
+72: 24/1800: 17.8S 142.6E: 150 [280]: 025 [045]: 996
REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.4-0.5 degree wrap on a log
10 spiral, giving a DT of 2.5. MT and PT suggest 2.5 and 2.0 respectively. FT
based on DT as it appears fairly clear.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald has now crossed the coast north of Kowanyama and is
expected to continue moving inland today under the influence of an upper ridge
developing across central Australia.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone is not expected to develop any further now that the system
has moved overland, however damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall are still
likely to occur across parts north Queensland today. Tides along the eastern
Gulf of Carpentaria coast are also expected to be abnormally high, exceeding the
highest tide of the year on the high tide today, particularly in coastal areas
between Weipa and Kowanyama. Large waves generated by the persistent monsoonal
flow may also combine with the abnormally high tides to produce minor flooding
along the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria coast today, mainly around the high tide.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 11P) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 142.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 144.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 85 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND AN
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES, WHICH IS
EVIDENT IN A 222312Z TRMM IMAGE. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 222341Z
SHOWS STRONG (25-30 KNOTS) MONSOONAL FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE CAPE
YORK PENINSULA DESPITE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE LLCC, WHICH CONTINUES
TO BE POSITIONED OVER LAND, ONLY SHOWING 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS NEAR
THE LLCC AND ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SEA LEVEL PRESSURES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE SYSTEM GIVING FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A TRACK
OVER LAND ALONG THE COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 994 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED STRUCTURE, UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Ex Tropical Cyclone Oswald. Regeneration Likely

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.7S
146.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.2S 148.5E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM WEST
OF ROCKHAMPTON, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH A SLOW DISSIPATION OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION WITHIN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. RADAR IMAGERY FROM EMERALD, AUSTRALIA SHOWS
THE CIRCULATION HAS BROADENED AND BECOME LESS DEFINED. OBSERVATIONS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC INDICATE WIND SPEEDS ARE BETWEEN 20 TO
25 KNOTS WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 995 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF A BROAD
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, WHICH IS CREATING MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 40 KNOTS). THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
LARGELY SUPPORTS THE INLAND TRACK SCENARIO, HOWEVER, A SLIGHT
EASTWARD SHIFT IN TRACK REMAINS A SLIM POSSIBILITY. SHOULD THE LLCC
REACH OPEN WATER, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE REGENERATION OF
THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.