SIO: FELLENG - Tropical Cyclone

[Meow]

20130129 1730 -14.1 -54.3 T5.5/5.5 13S FELLENG

Intense Tropical Cyclone Maybe.

T5.5 equals to 90 knots, but MFR gave it only 85 knots.

[euro6208]

dvorak at 5.5 equaling 102 KTS so JTWC has upped intensity to 105 knots- similiar to a category 3 hurricane/typhoon..

[supercane4867]

We have lift-off

[euro6208]

category 3 cyclone felleng...

[cycloneye]

[euro6208]

dvorak up to 6.0 so intensity is upped to 115 knots making felleng a category 4 equivalent typhoon/hurricane on the SSHS...WOW!


1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 16.2S 52.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 52.6E


REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 52.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FELLENG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER DEEPENED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO A SYMMETRICAL 20-NM EYE. THE SAME ANIMATION
ALSO SHOWS A POLEWARD CHANNEL HAS EMERGED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY, COMPLEMENTING AN ALREADY ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS FIXED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EYE FEATURE IN
THE ABOVE ANIMATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY CONGRUENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS IN THE VICINITY OF A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IN AN
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST THAT HAS BEGUN TO RECEDE IN
RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
CURRENTLY DIGGING THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR AND CAUSING TC 13S TO
TRACK MORE POLEWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, ENHANCED BY THE OPENING OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
AFTER TAU 24, TC FELLENG WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF WBAR
THAT CONTINUES TO DEFLECT THE VORTEX TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH
IS LAID JUST TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
310300Z AND 311500Z. //
NNNN

[galaxy401]

Really strengthening now. Hopefully it won't get any closer to Madagascar.

[supercane4867]

It's really weakening now, down to 105kts and continues to deteriorate

[Hurricane_Luis]

My forecast track for ITC Felleng



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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the offical MRF La Reunion or JTWC products.

[supercane4867]

No longer considers as intense

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/7/20122013
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FELLENG)
2.A POSITION 2013/01/31 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 51.8 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :41 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 410 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 240 SW: 200 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

[Crostorm]

Precipitation from 29.1. to 1.2. on La Réunion

- North: 365 mm at the Plaine des Chicots;

- Eastern Region: 781 mm Commerson;

- Southeast Region: 271 mm to Crete;

- South Region: Plain 641 mm to the Kaffirs;

- Western Region: 297 mm Aurère.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reu ... pluie.html

[euro6208]

WTXS31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 25.9S 51.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.9S 51.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 28.2S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 30.5S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 33.0S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 36.4S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 26.5S 51.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FELLENG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF ELONGATION AS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
BANDS ARE DISPLACED EASTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THIS IS ALSO READILY APPARENT ON A 020422Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
PASS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND ON THE
SSMIS IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH AND WEST OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH) TO THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STH
AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TRACK ON A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION. AS
TC 13S TRACKS FURTHER POLEWARD, THE STRONG VWS IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 36, THE CYCLONE WILL COMMENCE
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT GETS EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE,
BECOMING A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH WBAR ON THE LEFT OF AND
UKMET ON THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE LEFT OF AND SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS
30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z AND 030900Z. //
NNNN

[euro6208]

WTXS31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 31.1S 52.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.1S 52.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 33.4S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 36.0S 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 38.5S 57.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 31.7S 53.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FELLENG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 605 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED
AND DISPLACED SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS
REMAINED EXPOSED AND HAS NOW BEGUN TO UNRAVEL. THIS IS CLEARLY
EVIDENT ON A 030411Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE ABOVE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN CURRENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF
35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF A
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS) WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH THAT HAS WEAKENED WITH THE APPROACH
OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
DIGGING THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM AND CAUSING SEVERE
SUBSIDENCE. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MINIMUM GALE FORCE
INTENSITY AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, BECOMING A COLD
CORE LOW BY TAU 36; HOWEVER, THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE
CYCLONE WILL DISSIPATE WELL BEFORE TAU 36 DUE TO THE HIGH VWS. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND LENDS HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS EAST OF AND SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
030600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z AND 40900Z. //
NNNN