SIO: GINO - Tropical Cyclone

[supercane4867]

8.0S 92.0E

[supercane4867]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9S 91.5E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9S 91.0E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS UNORGANIZED AND FLARING CONVECTION AROUND A WEAK AND ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 081401Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS SOME FORMATIVE BANDING ON THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERIES OF THE ELONGATED LLCC BUT OTHERWISE REMAINS UNORGANIZED.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE (28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR
DEVELOPMENT. NUMERIC MODELS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFS, AND ECMWF ARE
GENERALLY DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM WITHIN 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Invest 92S

[Grifforzer]

AWIO20 FMEE 091201
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2013/02/09 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

Transequatorial monsoon inflow is established over the whole basin. It feeds a well defined ITCZ axed between 05S and 07S from west to east and east of 50E. The monsoon trough is well defined east of 60 where it is axed along 10S. It shows 2 noticeable areas of deep convection: one located to the south west of the Chagos archipelago and another one located over the far northeastern part of the basin. If the area located to the south-west of Diego-Garcia is not considered as a suspect area, the eastern one has shown some clear signs of organisation since the last 24 hours.

Disturbed weather area over the northeastern part of the basin:

Classical satellite imagery along with latest scatt data show a broad and east-west elongated low level circulation located between 07S/13S and 80E/95E. Multiple surface centers are likely within this broad area, however latest satellite animation suggest that the center shown by the latest ascat pass of this morning near 9.3S/86.5E, could become the main one. Associated convective activity is scattered, locally strong. Some convective bands located to the south of the circulation this afternoon start to show some curvature. MSLP is estimated at 1006 hPa and associated winds are weak close to the center but reach 20-25 kt far from the center in the monsoon or tradewinds flows.

Upper level divergence is good associated with a pretty nice cirrus outflow on satellite imagery. The system is located just to the north of the upper level ridge in an area of moderate easterly shear (20-30 kt according to cimss data of 09Z).

The oceanic potential appear god with SST in the 28-29°C range over the area.
Consequently, conditions appear conducive for further development of this system. Give the current broad nature of the low level circulation, development should be slow initially. A faster rate of intensification is likely as soon as the system will have a better defined low level circulation. The system should track westwouthwestwards to southwestwards within the next 2 to 3 days.

Beyond, all available numerical guidances and the European Ensemble Forecast System, suggest with a high probability, that the system should curve towards the mid-lat east of 70E.

For the next 24 hours, the potential for the development of a tropical depression is poor. It
becomes good monday and tuesday.

[euro6208]

WTXS31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101451Z FEB 13//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 12.1S 82.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 82.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 13.2S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 14.5S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 16.0S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 17.5S 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 20.6S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 24.5S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 27.0S 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 82.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING AND INCREASING CENTRAL CONVECTION WHICH IS
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 102329Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS BROKEN DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING ALONG THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE LLCC BEING OBSCURED IN THE IR IMAGERY
AND THE AMBIGUITY IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW DUE TO THE OVERALL IMPROVING
STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEVELOPING POINT SOURCE
NEAR THE SYSTEM AND AMPLE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS
BEING ENHANCED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN
AUSTRALIA. TC 15S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
AFTER TAU 36, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL RE-ORIENT THE STR CAUSING
TC 15S TO TRACK MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH TAU 72, AFTER WHICH, TC 15S
WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AND TRACK WESTERLY AS IT BEGINS TO ENTER
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (27 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES(SSTS), AND AMPLE OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 72, TC 15S
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER VWS AND COOLER SSTS,
AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, THEREFORE, THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 101451Z FEB 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 101500). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z AND 120300Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WTXS31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GINO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GINO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 16.6S 79.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 79.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 18.5S 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 20.5S 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 22.3S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 24.3S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 27.4S 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 79.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GINO), LOCATED 700 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A
RAGGED EYE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH DEEP BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 120819Z 37H
TRMM IMAGE SUPPORTS THE RECENT IMPROVEMENTS IN ORGANIZATION OBSERVED
IN MSI. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A VIGOROUS RADIAL OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE LLCC,
WHICH IS ALSO CREATING A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES INDICATING 75 KNOTS. TC 15S CONTINUES TO TRACK AROUND THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING AROUND THE STR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE (28
DEGREES CELSIUS) BUT WILL STEADILY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS,
BECOMING UNFAVORABLE BY TAU 36. IN ADDITION, VWS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
BECOMING UNFAVORABLE (GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS) BY TAU 48. EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY TAU 48 AS DECREASING SST
VALUES, INCREASING VWS, AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH LEAD TO THE
TRANSITION OF THE SYSTEM TO A COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 72. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 23
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z AND 131500Z.//
NNNN

[supercane4867]

90kts

[euro6208]

WTXS31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GINO) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (GINO) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 20.1S 79.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 79.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 22.2S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 23.8S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 25.5S 83.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 26.7S 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 28.2S 89.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 79.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (GINO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 875 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE DEEPEST AREAS OF CONVECTION
AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AND IS SUPPORTED BY
THE RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE EYE HAS BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS BECOMING OBSCURED BY
CONVECTION AS IT IS SHEARED FROM THE BAND ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. A RECENT SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES SUPPORTS THE WEAKENING
OF THE EYE IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A SLIGHT INCREASE FROM LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AS THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS BECOME
SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. TC 15S CONTINUES TO
TRACK AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST, AND HAS
SHIFTED FROM A SOUTHWESTERN TRACK TO A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STR, AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY LEAD TO STRONG VWS OVER THE LLCC. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL AND HAS BEEN STEADILY
DECLINING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH FURTHER COOLING EXPECTED
THROUGH TAU 72. THE STEADY WEAKENING TREND AND INCREASING
INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 48. ETT WILL BE COMPLETE BY TAU 72 AS VWS
AND SST VALUES RAPIDLY DETERIORATE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 140300Z AND 141500Z.//
NNNN