WPAC: Shanshan - Remnants
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supercane4867
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WPAC: Shanshan - Remnants
Southeast of Yap
Last edited by supercane4867 on Sat Feb 23, 2013 5:08 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/98W/98W_floater.html
monitoring those bunch of clouds for days, now we have one
monitoring those bunch of clouds for days, now we have one
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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W
could this be related to the possible TC shown by the GFS? (i'm expecting the Euro will be brought up here lol) been checking the model runs from time to tome to see if it's just a noise or something but again, it's becoming pretty consistent. I have no access to the NCEP models page today and that's the only site I know to check the models. I don't know if they're still showing the same thing. 
Can someone post a link? Thanks!
Can someone post a link? Thanks!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W
maybe this one can help...
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=soas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=prec&HH=3&BASE=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=soas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=prec&HH=3&BASE=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W
the area to the east looks more interesting...
EURO doesn't develop this much...
EURO doesn't develop this much...
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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W
^agreed. the area near 150E has more potential IMO with robust convection. i'm waiting if it will be declared as invest soon.
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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W
98W was repositioned to the area I was talking about previously. So this is now the area expected by the models to develop. this is interesting for me because it is not often that you get a February tropical cyclone. this will already be the Philippines's 3rd storm this year if ever things pan out..
So this is now the area expected by the models to develop. this is interesting for me because it is not often that you get a February tropical cyclone. this will already be the Philippines's 3rd storm this year if ever things pan out..
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W
I've noticed that in the past runs of GFS, they have an interaction of 2 weak system with one being absorbed by the other, now its only one..
IMO ECMWF is better in forecasting mid latitude cyclones than the tropical ones..
Having this invest this part of the year is not a good news especially for those living in Mindanao..
IMO ECMWF is better in forecasting mid latitude cyclones than the tropical ones..
Having this invest this part of the year is not a good news especially for those living in Mindanao..
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stormstrike
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W
NGPS and GFS finally at same starting point. 
Almost the same with UKM.. CMC has it nearer. Euro only makes it a rain maker.
Anyway, at this point development is only a slim possibility. If ever it develops, most possibly a weak one.
NOGAPS Track
GFS Track
CMC Track
Almost the same with UKM.. CMC has it nearer. Euro only makes it a rain maker. Anyway, at this point development is only a slim possibility. If ever it develops, most possibly a weak one.
NOGAPS Track
GFS Track
CMC Track
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stormstrike
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W
And wind shear on that area is increasing. It would be a rough ride for 98W.
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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W
watching how this will develop is kinda interesting. more stable air, lower OHC and stronger VWS plague much of the WPAC during this time of the year..that's why the months of Feb-March are often very quiet in terms of TC's...
i predicted that by April, we're gonna have our next TC..but this one is messing up with my prediction lol..
i predicted that by April, we're gonna have our next TC..but this one is messing up with my prediction lol..
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W
Satellite Analysis for Today (2/15/13; 12:00 PM PHT)
Edited using Paint.NET.
Edited using Paint.NET.
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REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
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Meow
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.4N 137.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH SPORADIC CONVECTION. A RECENT 170013Z ASCAT PASS
MISSED THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LLCC, BUT DOES INDICATE THE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY ARE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS.
ADDITIONALLY, IT INDICATES STRONGER GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS ARE
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC AND ARE HELPING TO FUEL RECENT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS CREATING MODERATE LEVELS OF
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, IN ADDITION TO LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LLCC ARE BETWEEN 28 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
OBSERVATIONS AT KOROR, PALAU SHOW A ONE MILLIBAR PRESSURE FALL OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH THE CURRENT SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1005 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH SPORADIC CONVECTION. A RECENT 170013Z ASCAT PASS
MISSED THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LLCC, BUT DOES INDICATE THE WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY ARE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS.
ADDITIONALLY, IT INDICATES STRONGER GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS ARE
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC AND ARE HELPING TO FUEL RECENT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS CREATING MODERATE LEVELS OF
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, IN ADDITION TO LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LLCC ARE BETWEEN 28 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
OBSERVATIONS AT KOROR, PALAU SHOW A ONE MILLIBAR PRESSURE FALL OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH THE CURRENT SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 1005 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Meow
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RobWESTPACWX
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W
Defiantly a big rain maker, here is some of my thoughts on it.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qgr4wzG4v4Y[/youtube]
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qgr4wzG4v4Y[/youtube]
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RobWESTPACWX
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Satellite Analysis for Today (2/15/13; 12:00 PM PHT)
http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/8497 ... lysis2.png
Edited using Paint.NET.
I like it! Nice analysis.
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xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W
RobWESTPACWX wrote:xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Satellite Analysis for Today (2/15/13; 12:00 PM PHT)
http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/8497 ... lysis2.png
Edited using Paint.NET.
I like it! Nice analysis.
Your welcome!
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xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W
Next Name to be used: Shanshan
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REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
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Meow
Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Next Name to be used: Shanshan
It is a female name provided by Hong Kong. We have not seen a February named storm in this basin for long time.
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