SIO: HARUNA - Tropical Cyclone

[Meow]

The standard picture of Haruna released by NASA at 07:35 UTC.



http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=Haruna.A2013052.0735.2km.jpg

[mrbagyo]

it's making a landfall in the south western coast of Madagascar..the eye is intact but the stronger convection is in the western portion of the storm..

[euro6208]

WTXS31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 23.0S 43.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S 43.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 24.1S 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 25.1S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 26.4S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 26.9S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 26.9S 54.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 44.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HARUNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN OVER
MADAGASCAR FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH A SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING
TREND. THE WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED AND HAS
BEEN REDUCING IN SIZE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER LAND. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF
THE EYE HAS BEEN PROVIDING AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND IS CREATING A
LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT. AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER MADAGASCAR, FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL
PERSIST IN WEAKENING TC 16S. UPON MOVING BACK OVER WATER, DECREASING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND INCREASING VWS, ASSOCIATED WITH
GREATER INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, WILL FURTHER
ENHANCE THE WEAKENING TREND. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES TC 16S WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
(STH) AND WILL WEAKEN FURTHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING VWS
AND DECREASING SST VALUES. THE GUIDANCE INDICATES TC 16S WILL
DISSIPATE BELOW WARNING STATUS BY TAU 72. IT ALSO INDICATES THE STH
WILL WEAKEN, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TURN SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE LOW LEVEL BECOME ABSORBED IN THE GRADIENT FLOW.
BASED ON THE GOOD AGREEMENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 72, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z
AND 231500Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WTXS31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 25.4S 48.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 48.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 26.5S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 27.2S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 27.6S 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 27.1S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 49.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HARUNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A RAGGED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION
REBUILDING AROUND THE LLCC AS TC 16S HAS TRACKED BACK OVER WATER.
THIS IS READILY APPARENT IN A 231206Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, AS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS REBUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE MSI
LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45
KNOTS, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
ALL AGENCIES OF 35 KNOTS, BASED ON THE STRUCTURE SEEN IN THE
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS THERE IS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE
WESTERLIES BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS AT MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
LEVELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE ALSO MARGINAL AT
25 TO 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 16S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 16S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS GENERAL EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS
CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24, VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SSTS WILL DECREASE, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD BY TAU 48. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
SPREAD CONSIDERABLY AFTER TAU 12 WITH A LARGE DISAGREEMENT ON TRACK
SPEEDS. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS, DUE TO
CONSENSUS SHOWING A MUCH FASTER TRACK AS IT IS BEING PULLED BY THE
MUCH FASTER NOGAPS AND WBAR SOLUTIONS. DUE TO THE NOW LARGE SPREAD
IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS PAST TAU 12, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z.//
NNNN