SIO: RUSTY - Post-Tropical

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supercane4867
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SIO: RUSTY - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Feb 21, 2013 12:28 am

12.0S-127.0E
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Last edited by supercane4867 on Tue Feb 26, 2013 2:49 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 97S

#2 Postby Grifforzer » Thu Feb 21, 2013 12:51 am

A low [10U] in the Northern Region near 11S 129E is slowly developing and is
expected to move into the Western Region during Friday or early Saturday. This
low may develop into a tropical cyclone late on Saturday or on Sunday. Next
week there is a significant risk that this system will become a severe tropical
cyclone and impact the Pilbara or West Kimberley. People in the Pilbara and
Kimberley are advised to stay up to date with weather forecasts and warnings.
There are no other significant lows and none are expected to develop over the
next three days.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday Low
Saturday Moderate
Sunday High
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#3 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Thu Feb 21, 2013 9:36 am

Invest 97S

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Re: SIO: INVEST 97S

#4 Postby Grifforzer » Fri Feb 22, 2013 12:51 am

A weak low [10U] is located in the monsoon trough near 13.0S 122.0E at midday WST, about 500 km north of Broome. The low is forecast to develop and become a tropical cyclone on Sunday. Further intensification is then expected and there is a significant risk that this system will become a severe tropical cyclone and impact the Pilbara or West Kimberley early next week.

People in the Pilbara and Kimberley are advised to stay up to date with weather forecasts and warnings.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=====================================
Saturday: Low
Sunday: High
Monday: High
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Re: SIO: INVEST 97S

#5 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Feb 22, 2013 2:56 pm

Image

0hr 2 am February 23 tropical low 14.5S 119.8E 110
+6hr 8 am February 23 tropical low 14.8S 119.1E 105
+12hr 2 pm February 23 tropical low 15.1S 118.7E 130
+18hr 8 pm February 23 tropical low 15.4S 118.6E 150
+24hr 2 am February 24 tropical low 15.8S 118.7E 175
+36hr 2 pm February 24 1 16.4S 118.8E 210
+48hr 2 am February 25 2 17.0S 118.7E 245
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Re: SIO: 10U - Tropical Low

#6 Postby euro6208 » Sat Feb 23, 2013 10:20 am

Image


WTXS21 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.3S 118.3E TO 18.4S 117.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
230230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.0S
117.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.6S
120.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 117.9E, APPROXIMATELY 485 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC.
A 230001Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO
A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC. A SHIP OBSERVATION AT 23/00Z (16.7S
118.8), ABOUT 110 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER, SHOWED EASTERLY
WINDS AT 23 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 999 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT FLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL CONSOLIDATE QUICKLY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD UNDER THE UPPER-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
240300Z.//
NNNN
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Re: SIO: 10U - Tropical Low

#7 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sat Feb 23, 2013 12:21 pm

Tropical Low 10U

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Re: SIO: Rusty - Tropical Cyclone

#8 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Feb 24, 2013 2:29 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 7
Issued at 2:36 pm WST on Sunday 24 February 2013

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Wallal to Whim Creek.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Broome to Wallal and Whim
Creek to Mardie and extending inland to Marble Bar.

At 2:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Rusty, Category 1 was estimated to be
350 kilometres north of Port Hedland and
435 kilometres west of Broome and
moving south at 8 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Rusty is moving slowly towards the coast. Gales are expected
to commence on the coast late on Sunday night or early on Monday.

During Monday the system will continue to intensify and there is a high risk
that it will cross the coast as a severe tropical cyclone on Tuesday or
Wednesday.

Rusty is a large tropical cyclone and is expected to move slower than usual
resulting in higher than usual rainfall. Widespread very heavy rainfall is
expected during Tuesday and Wednesday and is likely to lead to major flooding
in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding in the Fortescue is also likely.
Image
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Re: SIO: Rusty - Tropical Cyclone

#9 Postby tropicana » Sun Feb 24, 2013 11:01 am

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued at 8:52 pm WST on Sunday 24 February 2013

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Broome to Whim Creek,
including Port Hedland.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Mardie
including Karratha and Dampier and extending inland to Marble Bar and Millstream

At 8:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Rusty, Category 1 was estimated to be
330 kilometres ( 205 miles) north of Port Hedland and
445 kilometres ( 275 miles) west of Broome and
moving south at 6 kilometres per hour.( 4mph)

Tropical Cyclone Rusty is moving slowly towards the coast. Gales are expected
on the coast overnight between Wallal and Whim Creek and then extending north
to Broome during Monday.

Further intensification is likely as the cyclone approaches the coast on Monday
and Tuesday and there is a high risk that it will cross the coast as a severe
tropical cyclone. However, the slow motion of the cyclone means that the
crossing time and location is uncertain.

Rusty is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement should result in higher
than usual rainfall in the Pilbara and western Kimberley. Very heavy rainfall
is expected in near coastal parts of the eastern Pilbara and western Kimberley
on Monday. During Tuesday and Wednesday widespread heavy rainfall is likely to
lead to major flooding in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding in the
Fortescue is also likely.

DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in communities between Broome and Whim Creek need to prepare
for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit,
torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

People between Whim Creek and Mardie and inland parts of the central and
eastern Pilbara should listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Rusty at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.4 degrees South 118.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour ( 75 mph)
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 985 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am WST Monday 25 February.
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Re: SIO: RUSTY - Tropical Cyclone

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 24, 2013 2:15 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued at 11:58 pm WST on Sunday 24 February 2013

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Broome to Whim Creek,
including Port Hedland.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Mardie including Karratha and Dampier and extending inland to Marble Bar and Millstream

At 11:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Rusty, Category 1 was estimated to be
325 kilometres north of Port Hedland and
430 kilometres west of Broome and moving south at 5 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Rusty is moving slowly towards the coast. Gales are expected on the coast between Wallal and Whim Creek and then extending north to Broome during Monday.

Further intensification is likely as the cyclone approaches the coast on Monday and Tuesday and there is a high risk that it will cross the coast as a severe tropical cyclone. However, the slow motion of the cyclone means that the crossing time and location is uncertain.

Rusty is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement should result in higher than usual rainfall in the Pilbara and western Kimberley. Very heavy rainfall is expected in near coastal parts of the eastern Pilbara and western Kimberley on Monday. During Tuesday and Wednesday widespread heavy rainfall is likely to lead to major flooding in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding in the Fortescue is also likely.

DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in communities between Broome and Whim Creek need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

People between Whim Creek and Mardie and inland parts of the central and
eastern Pilbara should listen for the next advice.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Rusty at 11:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.4 degrees South 118.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 5 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Monday 25 February.

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#11 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Feb 24, 2013 3:56 pm

Nice-looking cyclone.

Most certainly higher than the 70 mph it has been assigned.

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#12 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Feb 24, 2013 10:30 pm

And just like that, the storm fell completely apart.
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Rusty is Busty

#13 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Feb 25, 2013 12:20 am

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:And just like that, the storm fell completely apart.

Those were my thoughts as well, just as it looked like it was bombing out, IR scans and microwave imagery shows it is pretty broad and loose (the center). The convection is broken for a good part of what should be a building eyewall. Its possible what we saw was a failed "wrap around" like we see in the Epac commonly. Unless that inner core tightens I don't see it "going places".

The prospects for landmass are still severe and we will have to see what this morning's Euro shows. It keeps showing Rusty going to high-end CAT4 (US) status and making landfall...perhaps in a prone area to very severe flooding. Could be the big-one for Australia this season.
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#14 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Feb 25, 2013 7:34 am

Attempt #2 at developing a well-defined eye:

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Re: SIO: RUSTY - Tropical Cyclone

#15 Postby euro6208 » Mon Feb 25, 2013 11:02 am

Image




WTXS32 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (RUSTY) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (RUSTY) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 18.2S 119.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 119.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 19.0S 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.6S 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.1S 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.7S 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 22.6S 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 26.3S 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 119.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (RUSTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AS CONVECTIVE BANDS
DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED
FROM A 250518Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND APRF TO REFLECT THE OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN THE
STRUCTURE OF TC 17S. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH BIAS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
(STH) OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE STH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS CAUSING TC 17S TO TRACK ON A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY. AFTER TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STH AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO REVERT TO A
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. TC RUSTY WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. AFTER TAU 24, THE CYCLONE WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR PORT
HEDLAND. LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING VWS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE
CYCLONE. TC 17S WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TC OVER LAND BY TAU
96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252100Z AND 260900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S
(EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN
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Re: SIO: RUSTY - Tropical Cyclone

#16 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Feb 25, 2013 1:19 pm

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Re: SIO: RUSTY - Tropical Cyclone

#17 Postby tropicana » Mon Feb 25, 2013 10:02 pm

RUSTY HAS INTENSIFIED TO A CAT 3 WITH 120mph SUSTAINED WINDS

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 21
Issued at 9:01 am WST on Tuesday 26 February 2013

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Mardie, and
adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara, including Marble Bar, Nullagine and
Millstream.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for adjacent inland areas of the Pilbara including
Tom Price, Newman and Telfer.
The Cyclone Warning for coastal areas from Broome to Bidyadanga has been
cancelled.

At 8:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty, Category 3 was estimated to be
170 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and
320 kilometres northeast of Karratha and
moving south at 6 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty intensified overnight and continues to move
slowly southwards towards the coast. The slow motion and large size of Rusty
means that the destructive and very destructive winds will occur on the coast
well before the centre crosses the coast, and will extend some distance from
the centre. Wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are already being experienced
in Port Hedland and conditions there are likely to get slowly worse during
Tuesday and into Wednesday.

Gales are occuring on the coast between Sandfire Roadhouse and Whim Creek, with
destructive winds extending from near Port Hedland to around Wallal. Gales may
extend west to Karratha and begin to extend inland towards Marble Bar and
Millstream on Wednesday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 195 kilometres per hour are likely to
develop in coastal parts between Whim Creek and Pardoo during Wednesday as
Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty approaches the coast.

This is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement is likely to result in
an extended period of destructive winds near the track, with rainfall that is
heavier than that associated with a typical system. During Tuesday and
Wednesday widespread very heavy rainfall is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in
the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding is also likely in the Fortescue
catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty's intensity, size and slow movement is also
likely to lead to a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre nears the
coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark
with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS COASTAL INUNDATION.

DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in communities between Wallal and Whim Creek, including
Pardoo, De Grey and Port Hedland, need to take action and get ready to shelter
from a cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in communities between Bidyadanga and Wallal and between
Whim Creek and Mardie, including Karratha and extending to adjacent inland
areas including Marble Bar, Nullagine and Millstream, need to prepare for
cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch,
portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
ALL CLEAR: People in or near Broome are advised that the danger of hazardous
wind and storm surge has passed.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 18.9 degrees South 119.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 195 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 957 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm WST Tuesday 26 February.
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Re: SIO: RUSTY - Tropical Cyclone

#18 Postby euro6208 » Tue Feb 26, 2013 9:37 am

tropicana wrote:RUSTY HAS INTENSIFIED TO A CAT 3 WITH 120mph SUSTAINED WINDS



i read the entire paragraph and no mention of winds that high...it does says 195 kph though... :wink:

bom bases a storm's intensity (cat 1,2,3) on wind gust not sustained. is that true?
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Re: SIO: RUSTY - Tropical Cyclone

#19 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Feb 26, 2013 10:23 am

It remains stationary for so long that upwelling is about to cause problem

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Re: SIO: RUSTY - Tropical Cyclone

#20 Postby tropicana » Tue Feb 26, 2013 10:34 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 27
Issued at 8:55 pm WST on Tuesday 26 February 2013

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Mardie
including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier, and adjacent inland areas of the
Pilbara, including Marble Bar, Nullagine and Millstream.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for remaining central and eastern areas of the
Pilbara including Tom Price, Newman, Telfer and adjacent Gascoyne district.

At 8:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty, Category 3 was estimated to be
125 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and
285 kilometres northeast of Karratha and
near stationary.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty has been near stationary over the last few hours
but is expected to resume a southerly track towards the Pilbara coast early
Wednesday. The slow motion and large size of Rusty means that the destructive
and very destructive winds will occur on the coast well before the centre
crosses the coast, and will extend some distance from the centre. Wind gusts to
120 kilometres per hour have already been experienced in Port Hedland and
conditions there are likely to get slowly worse during Wednesday.

Gales are occuring on the coast between Sandfire Roadhouse and Whim Creek, with
destructive winds extending from near Port Hedland to around Wallal. Gales may
extend west to Karratha and begin to extend inland towards Marble Bar and
Millstream on Wednesday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 165 kilometres per hour are
likely to develop in coastal parts between Whim Creek and Pardoo during
Wednesday as Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty approaches the coast.

This is a large tropical cyclone and its slow movement is likely to result in
an extended period of destructive winds near the track, with rainfall that is
heavier than that associated with a typical system. Widespread very heavy
rainfall overnight and on Wednesday is likely to lead to MAJOR FLOODING in the
De Grey catchment. Significant flooding is also likely in the Fortescue
catchment and in Pilbara coastal streams.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty's intensity, size and slow movement is also
likely to lead to a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre nears the
coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark
with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS COASTAL INUNDATION.

DFES State Emergency Service (SES) advises of the following community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near communities between Pardoo and Whim Creek,
including Port Hedland and South Hedland need to go to shelter immediately.
YELLOW ALERT: People in communities between Wallal and Pardoo, extending inland
to Marble Bar need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in communities between Bidyadanga and Wallal and between
Whim Creek and Mardie, including Karratha and extending to inland areas
including Nullagine and Millstream, need to prepare for cyclonic weather and
organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare
batteries, food and water.


Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 19.3 degrees South 119.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... near stationary
.Wind gusts near centre... 195 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 957 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am WST Wednesday 27 February.
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