18.5S 148.6E
SPAC: SANDRA - Tropical Cyclone
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
supercane4867
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
SPAC: SANDRA - Tropical Cyclone
18.5S 148.6E
Last edited by supercane4867 on Thu Mar 07, 2013 1:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
Meow
-
supercane4867
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Wednesday the 6th of March 2013 and valid until end of
Saturday
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
At 12pm AEST, the monsoon trough extended across the northern Coral Sea to a low
near 17.6S 153.8E, about 770km east-northeast of Townsville. The low is forecast
to move northeast while intensifying and is likely to reach tropical cyclone
strength during Thursday. The system is expected to continue intensifying while
moving generally east to southeast on Friday and Saturday, remaining well
offshore from the Queensland coast. This system is not expected to affect the
Queensland coast during the outlook period.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Thursday: High
Friday: High
Saturday: High
NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Wednesday the 6th of March 2013 and valid until end of
Saturday
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
At 12pm AEST, the monsoon trough extended across the northern Coral Sea to a low
near 17.6S 153.8E, about 770km east-northeast of Townsville. The low is forecast
to move northeast while intensifying and is likely to reach tropical cyclone
strength during Thursday. The system is expected to continue intensifying while
moving generally east to southeast on Friday and Saturday, remaining well
offshore from the Queensland coast. This system is not expected to affect the
Queensland coast during the outlook period.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Thursday: High
Friday: High
Saturday: High
NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%
0 likes
-
Meow
Tropical Low 13U
AXAU21 ABRF 071255
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1254 UTC 07/03/2013
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 13U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 15.4S
Longitude: 155.4E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: northeast [041 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 300 nm [555 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 08/0000: 15.1S 156.2E: 065 [120]: 040 [075]: 988
+24: 08/1200: 15.0S 157.3E: 090 [165]: 045 [085]: 985
+36: 09/0000: 15.4S 158.2E: 110 [200]: 055 [100]: 979
+48: 09/1200: 15.8S 159.2E: 130 [235]: 070 [130]: 967
+60: 10/0000: 16.5S 160.1E: 150 [275]: 085 [155]: 954
+72: 10/1200: 17.2S 160.7E: 165 [310]: 085 [155]: 953
REMARKS:
DT=2.0, based on curved band 0.3 to 0.4 wrap. MET is 3.0, PAT is 2.5. Final T
based on PAT. Movement over the last 12 hours has been northeast, although some
uncertainty exists in the current position. Over the next 24 to 48 hours
movement is expected to be towards the east due to the easterly propagation of
the low level monsoon surge and an increase in weak upper level ridging to the
west of the system. Currently the system sits in a low shear environment with
shear over the system of the order of 10 to 15 knots.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 07/1900 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
0 likes
-
supercane4867
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
-
Meow
Higher than Dvorak. 
WTPS31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 14.9S 157.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 157.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 15.2S 158.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 15.6S 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.1S 160.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 16.7S 160.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 18.5S 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.8S 163.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 23.5S 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 157.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (SANDRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 645 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM AN EYE FEATURE ON A
080957Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
DEVELOPING EYE IN THE SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS WEST OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED
EASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO DEEP TROUGHING NEAR THE DATELINE. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS SLIGHT POLEWARD ENHANCEMENT TO THE OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
AFTER TAU 48, AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD AND ASSUME STEERING, BRINGING THE CYCLONE TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY. ALL ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SUPPORT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A PEAK OF 100 KNOTS
EXPECTED BY TAU 72. TC 19S SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY TAU 96 AS VWS
INCREASES AND OCEAN PARAMETERS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH GFS THE SLOWEST AND TO THE RIGHT
OF CONSENSUS. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES JUST TO THE LEFT OF AND
FASTER THAN CONSENSUS TO OFFSET GFS. DUE TO THE IMPROVED MODEL
AGREEMENT, THERE IS NOW A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 090300Z AND 091500Z. //
NNNN
WTPS31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 14.9S 157.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 157.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 15.2S 158.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 15.6S 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.1S 160.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 16.7S 160.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 18.5S 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.8S 163.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 23.5S 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 157.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (SANDRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 645 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM AN EYE FEATURE ON A
080957Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
DEVELOPING EYE IN THE SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS WEST OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED
EASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO DEEP TROUGHING NEAR THE DATELINE. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS SLIGHT POLEWARD ENHANCEMENT TO THE OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
AFTER TAU 48, AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD AND ASSUME STEERING, BRINGING THE CYCLONE TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY. ALL ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SUPPORT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A PEAK OF 100 KNOTS
EXPECTED BY TAU 72. TC 19S SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY TAU 96 AS VWS
INCREASES AND OCEAN PARAMETERS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH GFS THE SLOWEST AND TO THE RIGHT
OF CONSENSUS. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES JUST TO THE LEFT OF AND
FASTER THAN CONSENSUS TO OFFSET GFS. DUE TO THE IMPROVED MODEL
AGREEMENT, THERE IS NOW A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 090300Z AND 091500Z. //
NNNN
0 likes
-
Meow
TCWC Brisbane upgraded Sandra to a category 3 severe tropical cyclone. TCWC Nadi takes responsibility later.
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1827 UTC 09/03/2013
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Sandra
Identifier: 13U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.8S
Longitude: 159.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [111 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 974 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 160 nm [295 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 160 nm [295 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 55 nm [100 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 55 nm [100 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 55 nm [100 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 55 nm [100 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 270 nm [500 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 10/0600: 16.4S 160.8E: 045 [080]: 080 [150]: 961
+24: 10/1800: 17.1S 161.5E: 070 [130]: 090 [165]: 951
+36: 11/0600: 18.1S 162.0E: 090 [165]: 085 [155]: 951
+48: 11/1800: 19.4S 162.3E: 110 [200]: 075 [140]: 961
+60: 12/0600: 20.7S 162.6E: 130 [235]: 065 [120]: 970
+72: 12/1800: 21.6S 162.7E: 145 [270]: 055 [100]: 978
REMARKS:
DT is 4.5 based on poorly formed OW eye in LG [E5.0, -0.5 for poor eye].MET and
PAT support. Final T 4.5.
Tropical Cyclone Sandra has generally developed at a standard rate over the last
24 hours.
Sandra should continue to develop at this rate over the next 24 hours, as the
system is expected to continue to move in a low wind shear environment and over
warm sea surface temperatures.
Sandra is expected to continue to move in an east to southeast direction over
the next 24 hours due to the influence of a mid-level trough moving across the
Pacific Ocean to the southeast of New Caledonia. The system should adopt more of
a south to southeast track on Monday as the mid-level trough weakens and as a
result allows an upper level ridge to the north of Fiji to become the dominant
steering influence.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system issued by Brisbane TCWC -
future bulletins will be issued by Nadi TCWC.
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1827 UTC 09/03/2013
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Sandra
Identifier: 13U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.8S
Longitude: 159.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [111 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 974 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 160 nm [295 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 160 nm [295 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 55 nm [100 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 55 nm [100 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 55 nm [100 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 55 nm [100 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 270 nm [500 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 10/0600: 16.4S 160.8E: 045 [080]: 080 [150]: 961
+24: 10/1800: 17.1S 161.5E: 070 [130]: 090 [165]: 951
+36: 11/0600: 18.1S 162.0E: 090 [165]: 085 [155]: 951
+48: 11/1800: 19.4S 162.3E: 110 [200]: 075 [140]: 961
+60: 12/0600: 20.7S 162.6E: 130 [235]: 065 [120]: 970
+72: 12/1800: 21.6S 162.7E: 145 [270]: 055 [100]: 978
REMARKS:
DT is 4.5 based on poorly formed OW eye in LG [E5.0, -0.5 for poor eye].MET and
PAT support. Final T 4.5.
Tropical Cyclone Sandra has generally developed at a standard rate over the last
24 hours.
Sandra should continue to develop at this rate over the next 24 hours, as the
system is expected to continue to move in a low wind shear environment and over
warm sea surface temperatures.
Sandra is expected to continue to move in an east to southeast direction over
the next 24 hours due to the influence of a mid-level trough moving across the
Pacific Ocean to the southeast of New Caledonia. The system should adopt more of
a south to southeast track on Monday as the mid-level trough weakens and as a
result allows an upper level ridge to the north of Fiji to become the dominant
steering influence.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system issued by Brisbane TCWC -
future bulletins will be issued by Nadi TCWC.
0 likes
-
jaguarjace
- Category 4
- Posts: 975
- Age: 29
- Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
- Location: Khon Kaen, Thailand
Re: SPAC: SANDRA - Tropical Cyclone
RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Severe Tropical Cyclone SANDRA
Warning Number 18 issued 0712 UTC Monday 11 March 2013.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Severe Tropical Cyclone SANDRA
Warning Number 18 issued 0712 UTC Monday 11 March 2013.
0 likes
Owner of the Tropical Archive YouTube channel
Web Developer at Force Thirteen
Twitter/X : @force13_support
Web Developer at Force Thirteen
Twitter/X : @force13_support
Re: SPAC: SANDRA - Tropical Cyclone
reached a peak of 110 knots, category 3 on the SSHS but down to 90 knots...hopefully it stays away from new caledonia....
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
-
jaguarjace
- Category 4
- Posts: 975
- Age: 29
- Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
- Location: Khon Kaen, Thailand
RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Severe Tropical Cyclone SANDRA
Warning Number 22 issued 0739 UTC Tuesday 12 March 2013.
MAR 11 1832 UTC - MAR 12 0832 UTC Floater Loops:
>WATER VAPOR Enhancement
>RGB Enhancement
>RAINBOW Enhancement
>RBTOP Enhancement
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Severe Tropical Cyclone SANDRA
Warning Number 22 issued 0739 UTC Tuesday 12 March 2013.
MAR 11 1832 UTC - MAR 12 0832 UTC Floater Loops:
>WATER VAPOR Enhancement
>RGB Enhancement
>RAINBOW Enhancement
>RBTOP Enhancement
0 likes
Owner of the Tropical Archive YouTube channel
Web Developer at Force Thirteen
Twitter/X : @force13_support
Web Developer at Force Thirteen
Twitter/X : @force13_support
-
RobWESTPACWX
- WestPACMet
- Posts: 1616
- Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
- Location: Tokyo, Japan
- Contact:
Re: SPAC: SANDRA - Tropical Cyclone
I wrote a video up on this yesterday. I seen the site was down so couldnt post it, any how here it is.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9voEPzf4noQ[/youtube]
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9voEPzf4noQ[/youtube]
0 likes
Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
-
jaguarjace
- Category 4
- Posts: 975
- Age: 29
- Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
- Location: Khon Kaen, Thailand
AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone SANDRA
Issued at 9:58 am EST Wednesday 13 March 2013.
Remarks:
At 5:00 am EDT Tropical Cyclone Sandra, Category 2 was estimated to be
1040 kilometres north northeast of Lord Howe Island and
950 kilometres northwest of Norfolk Island and
moving south at 15 kilometres per hour.
The cyclone is currently weakening, however it still may reintensify as it moves further south towards the Lord Howe Island region.
Very rough seas, heavy swells and abnormally high tides are expected to develop about Lord Howe Island Thursday, and to persist during Friday.
Gales with damaging gusts to about 110 km/hr may develop on Lord Howe Island late on Thursday. Winds may increase further during Friday, and Storm Force Winds with destructive gusts to about 130 km/hr could occur.
MAR 12 0832 UTC - MAR 12 2232 UTC Floater Loops:
>WATER VAPOR Enhancement
>RGB Enhancement
>RAINBOW Enhancement
>RBTOP Enhancement
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone SANDRA
Issued at 9:58 am EST Wednesday 13 March 2013.
Remarks:
At 5:00 am EDT Tropical Cyclone Sandra, Category 2 was estimated to be
1040 kilometres north northeast of Lord Howe Island and
950 kilometres northwest of Norfolk Island and
moving south at 15 kilometres per hour.
The cyclone is currently weakening, however it still may reintensify as it moves further south towards the Lord Howe Island region.
Very rough seas, heavy swells and abnormally high tides are expected to develop about Lord Howe Island Thursday, and to persist during Friday.
Gales with damaging gusts to about 110 km/hr may develop on Lord Howe Island late on Thursday. Winds may increase further during Friday, and Storm Force Winds with destructive gusts to about 130 km/hr could occur.
MAR 12 0832 UTC - MAR 12 2232 UTC Floater Loops:
>WATER VAPOR Enhancement
>RGB Enhancement
>RAINBOW Enhancement
>RBTOP Enhancement
0 likes
Owner of the Tropical Archive YouTube channel
Web Developer at Force Thirteen
Twitter/X : @force13_support
Web Developer at Force Thirteen
Twitter/X : @force13_support
-
jaguarjace
- Category 4
- Posts: 975
- Age: 29
- Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
- Location: Khon Kaen, Thailand
Re: SPAC: SANDRA - Tropical Cyclone
AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone SANDRA
Issued at 9:01 pm EDT Wednesday 13 March 2013.
Remarks:
TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA, CATEGORY 1, is situated over the central Coral Sea and is moving to the south. The latest forecasting guidance suggests a weak category 1 system will continue tracking south over the next 12 to 18 hours. It is then expected to reintensify into a system with category 2 impacts during Thursday afternoon as it approaches Lord Howe Island.
Damaging surf, heavy swells and abnormally high tides are expected to develop about Lord Howe Island during Thursday and persist into Friday. This may lead to beach erosion.
Gales with damaging gusts to about 110 km/hr are expected to develop on Lord Howe Island during Thursday morning. Destructive wind gusts up to 150km/hr will then possibly develop during Thursday afternoon and evening.
Areas of heavy rain which may lead to flash flooding are also expected to develop over Lord Howe Island during Thursday and persist into Friday.
MAR 12 2232 UTC - MAR 13 1232 UTC Floater Loops:
>WATER VAPOR Enhancement
>RGB Enhancement
>RAINBOW Enhancement
>RBTOP Enhancement
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone SANDRA
Issued at 9:01 pm EDT Wednesday 13 March 2013.
Remarks:
TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA, CATEGORY 1, is situated over the central Coral Sea and is moving to the south. The latest forecasting guidance suggests a weak category 1 system will continue tracking south over the next 12 to 18 hours. It is then expected to reintensify into a system with category 2 impacts during Thursday afternoon as it approaches Lord Howe Island.
Damaging surf, heavy swells and abnormally high tides are expected to develop about Lord Howe Island during Thursday and persist into Friday. This may lead to beach erosion.
Gales with damaging gusts to about 110 km/hr are expected to develop on Lord Howe Island during Thursday morning. Destructive wind gusts up to 150km/hr will then possibly develop during Thursday afternoon and evening.
Areas of heavy rain which may lead to flash flooding are also expected to develop over Lord Howe Island during Thursday and persist into Friday.
MAR 12 2232 UTC - MAR 13 1232 UTC Floater Loops:
>WATER VAPOR Enhancement
>RGB Enhancement
>RAINBOW Enhancement
>RBTOP Enhancement
0 likes
Owner of the Tropical Archive YouTube channel
Web Developer at Force Thirteen
Twitter/X : @force13_support
Web Developer at Force Thirteen
Twitter/X : @force13_support
-
jaguarjace
- Category 4
- Posts: 975
- Age: 29
- Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
- Location: Khon Kaen, Thailand
Re: SPAC: SANDRA - Tropical Cyclone
AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone Sandra
Issued at 12:55 pm EDT Thursday 14 March 2013.
Remarks:
TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA, CATEGORY 1, is situated over the far northern Tasman Sea and is moving to the south. The system is expected to strengthen over the next 6 hours as it approaches Lord Howe Island and category 2 impacts are possible across the island from late this afternoon through until the early hours of Friday.
Damaging surf, heavy swells and abnormally high tides are expected about Lord Howe Island during today and through Friday. This may lead to beach erosion.
Gales with damaging gusts to about 110 km/hr are now developing on Lord Howe Island and are forecast to persist until Friday evening. Destructive wind gusts up to 150km/hr are possible from late this afternoon through until the early hours of Friday.
Areas of heavy rain which may lead to flash flooding are possible over Lord Howe Island during Thursday and Friday.
MAR 13 1232 UTC - MAR 14 0232 UTC Floater Loops:
>WATER VAPOR Enhancement
>RGB Enhancement
>RAINBOW Enhancement
>RBTOP Enhancement
MAR 14 0232 UTC - MAR 14 1632 UTC Floater Loops:
>WATER VAPOR Enhancement
>RGB Enhancement
>RAINBOW Enhancement
>RBTOP Enhancement
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone Sandra
Issued at 12:55 pm EDT Thursday 14 March 2013.
Remarks:
TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA, CATEGORY 1, is situated over the far northern Tasman Sea and is moving to the south. The system is expected to strengthen over the next 6 hours as it approaches Lord Howe Island and category 2 impacts are possible across the island from late this afternoon through until the early hours of Friday.
Damaging surf, heavy swells and abnormally high tides are expected about Lord Howe Island during today and through Friday. This may lead to beach erosion.
Gales with damaging gusts to about 110 km/hr are now developing on Lord Howe Island and are forecast to persist until Friday evening. Destructive wind gusts up to 150km/hr are possible from late this afternoon through until the early hours of Friday.
Areas of heavy rain which may lead to flash flooding are possible over Lord Howe Island during Thursday and Friday.
MAR 13 1232 UTC - MAR 14 0232 UTC Floater Loops:
>WATER VAPOR Enhancement
>RGB Enhancement
>RAINBOW Enhancement
>RBTOP Enhancement
MAR 14 0232 UTC - MAR 14 1632 UTC Floater Loops:
>WATER VAPOR Enhancement
>RGB Enhancement
>RAINBOW Enhancement
>RBTOP Enhancement
0 likes
Owner of the Tropical Archive YouTube channel
Web Developer at Force Thirteen
Twitter/X : @force13_support
Web Developer at Force Thirteen
Twitter/X : @force13_support
-
jaguarjace
- Category 4
- Posts: 975
- Age: 29
- Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
- Location: Khon Kaen, Thailand
SPAC: SANDRA - Ex-Tropical Cyclone
Remnants of Sandra roughly west of Auckland, New Zealand.
MAR 16 1032 UTC - MAR 17 0032 UTC Floater Loops:
>WATER VAPOR Enhancement
>RGB Enhancement
>RAINBOW Enhancement
>RBTOP Enhancement
MAR 16 1032 UTC - MAR 17 0032 UTC Floater Loops:
>WATER VAPOR Enhancement
>RGB Enhancement
>RAINBOW Enhancement
>RBTOP Enhancement
0 likes
Owner of the Tropical Archive YouTube channel
Web Developer at Force Thirteen
Twitter/X : @force13_support
Web Developer at Force Thirteen
Twitter/X : @force13_support
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 36 guests