SPAC: TIM - Tropical Cyclone

[supercane4867]

13.0S 136.0E

[supercane4867]

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
185 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9S 139.9E TO 13.8S 147.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
122030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.7S
140.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 139.4E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 140.9E, APPROXIMATELY 85 NM WEST OF TIP OF
CAPE YORK PENINSULA, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM WEIPA DEPICT A BROAD, ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHIN AN EXPANSIVE TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA. A 121529Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION IS ALONG A FORMATIVE BAND TO THE NORTH THAT IS BEGINNING
TO CURL INTO THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
(10-20 KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER, THIS IS ALSO
PROVIDING A GOOD EASTWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER EAST. NUMERIC WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS,
INCLUDING GFS, NAVGEM, AND ECMWF ARE FORECASTING THIS CYCLONE TO
DEVELOP TO A 35-KNOT SYSTEM IN 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
132100Z. //

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Low
Issued at 4:55 pm EST Wednesday 13 March 2013.



Remarks:
The tropical low is expected to deepen and continue moving east-southeast across the Coral Sea in the next few days and is likely to strengthen to tropical cyclone strength on Thursday.
There is currently no direct threat to the Queensland coast during the next few days.

MAR 12 2232 UTC - MAR 13 1232 UTC Floater Loops:
>WATER VAPOR Enhancement
>RGB Enhancement
>RAINBOW Enhancement
>RBTOP Enhancement

[supercane4867]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 9:19 am EST on Thursday 14 March 2013
At 7 am EST Thursday, Tropical Cyclone Tim (Category 1) with central pressure
996 hPa was located over the northwest Coral Sea near latitude 13.7 south
longitude 148.2 east, which is about 440 km northeast of Cairns and 345 km
northwest of Willis Island.

The low is moving east southeast at about 29 kilometres per hour.

Tropical cyclone Tim is expected to continue moving east-southeast across the
Coral Sea over the next few days and is likely to slowly strengthen. There is
currently no direct threat to Queensland during the next few days.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 5 pm EST.

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone Tim
Issued at 10:56 am EST Thursday 14 March 2013.



MAR 13 1232 UTC - MAR 14 0232 UTC Floater Loops:
>WATER VAPOR Enhancement
>RGB Enhancement
>RAINBOW Enhancement
>RBTOP Enhancement

MAR 14 0232 UTC - MAR 14 1632 UTC Floater Loops:
>WATER VAPOR Enhancement
>RGB Enhancement
>RAINBOW Enhancement
>RBTOP Enhancement

[brunota2003]

Aww...they named a TC after me? How sweet

[RobWESTPACWX]

Haha! Awesome, no storms recently have been named Robert. Whats with that?

Any how I think this one has about had it, its falling apart and dosent look like the bulk of the winds will not reach the coastline and not a tremendous amount of rain. What Im curios about is the next one, GFS was to grab at a area coming from the North East next week.

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Cyclone Tim
Issued at 11:08 am EST Sunday 17 March 2013.



Remarks:
Tropical Cyclone Tim is forecast to continue moving southwest during today and take on a westerly track in the next 24 hours. The system is expected to weaken below tropical cyclone strength.

In the longer term, the remnant low is forecast to move west-northwest towards the tropical Queensland coast during the early part of the week. This should bring a general increase in showers and rain areas about the Central Coast, Herbert and Burdekin and North Tropical Coast districts from Tuesday onwards.

MAR 16 1032 UTC - MAR 17 0032 UTC Floater Loops:
>WATER VAPOR Enhancement
>RGB Enhancement
>RAINBOW Enhancement
>RBTOP Enhancement