SIO: JAMALA - Tropical Cyclone

[supercane4867]

4.2S 79.7E

[supercane4867]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.5S 80.1E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.0S 86.7E, APPROXIMATELY 870 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
ELONGATED, CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 060757Z AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWS AN
ORGANIZED LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING. DESPITE THE WEAK
BANDING, A 060412Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES AN IMPROVED, DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH WEAK CORE WINDS AND 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

TCFA issued:

WTXS21 PGTW 080200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.7S 83.3E TO 9.9S 79.5E WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
080130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.2S
82.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.0S 83.5E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.2S 82.6E, APPROXIMATELY 605 NM EAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING
HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CONSOLIDATED AND DEEPENED AS THE LLCC HAS BECOME
BETTER-DEFINED. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES, THE LATEST OF WHICH IS A
072334Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE PASS, SHOW THE PROGRESSIVE CONSOLIDATION OF
THE FEEDER BANDS THAT ARE MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) NORTHERLY VWS. THE VWS,
HOWEVER, IS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO START TRACKING MORE POLEWARD INTO LOWER VWS.
THE DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. IN VIEW OF THE SIGNIFICANT
CONSOLIDATION AND ANTICIPATED LOWER VWS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
090200Z. //
NNNN

[supercane4867]

Tropical Cyclone 24S

[Meow]

It’s quite weird that MFR only takes it as a low-pressure area.

[SouthDadeFish]

CIMSS 18Z analysis shows about 25-30 knots of easterly shear over the center of the storm, which is confirmed by this 89 GHz microwave pass:

[cycloneye]

Is now TC JAMALA.

WTXS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JAMALA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JAMALA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 8.7S 86.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.7S 86.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 9.2S 86.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 9.7S 86.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 10.2S 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 10.5S 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 10.9S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 11.5S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 12.0S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 8.8S 86.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JAMALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 820 NM EAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON
AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES RANGING FROM 35 TO
45 KNOTS. TC 24S IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY
FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN
INCREASINGLY WESTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG HIGH ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE UKMO TRACKER, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM EASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE
MODELS ARE NOW CONSISTENT IN TURNING TC 24S WESTWARD BUT DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THIS TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION.
THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AND SLIGHTLY FASTER TO OFFSET THE UKMO SOLUTION. BASED ON THE
IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
AFTER TAU 12, VWS IS FORECAST TO RELAX, ALLOWING FOR FURTHER
CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION. TC 24S SHOULD PEAK AT ABOUT 70
KNOTS BY TAU 72 THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE INFUSION OF COOLER,
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH TO THE SOUTH.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 102100Z AND 110900Z.//

[euro6208]

WTXS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JAMALA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JAMALA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 9.4S 86.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.4S 86.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 9.9S 87.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 10.4S 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 10.6S 86.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 10.8S 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 10.9S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 10.8S 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 11.2S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 9.5S 86.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (JAMALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 854 NM
EASTWARD OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR IMAGERY
ALONG WITH A 101523Z AMSU-B IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. TC 24S IS LOCATED WITHIN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC
24S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
THROUGH TAU 24. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN INCREASINGLY
WESTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG HIGH ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH. THE MODELS ARE NOW
CONSISTENT IN TURNING TC 24S WESTWARD BUT DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THIS TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION.
THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AND SLIGHTLY FASTER TO OFFSET THE UKMO SOLUTION. BASED ON THE
IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
AFTER TAU 24, VWS IS FORECAST TO RELAX AND BECOME MORE IN PHASE WITH
STORM MOTION, ALLOWING FOR FURTHER CONSOLIDATION AND
INTENSIFICATION. TC 24S SHOULD PEAK AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS BY TAU 72 THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE INFUSION OF COOLER, DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z.//
NNNN