EPAC: ALVIN - Post-Tropical

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013
200 PM PDT THU MAY 16 2013

...ALVIN STRUGGLING...
...MAY NOT SURVIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MUCH LONGER...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.5N 109.1W
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013
200 PM PDT THU MAY 16 2013

THERE IS SOME QUESTION WHETHER ALVIN STILL HAS A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE STORM IS STILL FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND
IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH FROM ANOTHER CLUSTER OF DEEP
CONVECTION A FEW HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES TO ITS SOUTHWEST. SINCE
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS WORSENED SINCE THIS MORNING...AND
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.5 FROM
SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT. THIS COULD BE
OVERLY GENEROUS.

ALVIN ACCELERATED A BIT THIS MORNING BUT HAS AN AVERAGE MOTION OF
285/10 KT. SINCE THE STORM HAS BEEN UNABLE TO DETACH ITSELF FROM
THE ITCZ...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT ALVIN WILL MAKE MUCH NORTHWARD
PROGRESS. IN DIRECT CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
NOW IN FULL AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING
THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG THE
INDIVIDUAL MODELS. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.

THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT ALVIN IS BEING AFFECTED
BY 20-25 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR...AND IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE SHEAR
WILL ABATE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE
STORM DOES NOT SUGGEST THAT STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY...AND THE NEW
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN LOWERED. THIS FORECAST
ESSENTIALLY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS.
ALVIN IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.
HOWEVER...ADVISORIES COULD BE TERMINATED AT ANY TIME IF IT IS
DETERMINED THAT THERE IS NO LONGER A CLOSED CIRCULATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 9.5N 109.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 9.8N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 10.8N 112.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 11.5N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 12.0N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 13.0N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 13.0N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/1800Z 13.0N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, Alvin is a crazy storm. IMO 3z will the be the last advisory.

[galaxy401]

Can't even see where the center is in all that mess.

[Hurricane Jed]

Looks like throw-up. Alvin is a dud once again.

[Cyclenall]

I had a small feeling this was a possibly but once saw the confidence of the NHC and other mets, discarded it. To see a reversal in forecast going from 80 knots peak to this is very rare in 24 hours or less. There are a few storms that did something like this after looking very promising and was thought to become great: Barbara (2007), Bud (at the very start) (2012), and many depressions in the Cpac. Good thing I'm really busy right now or I'd care about Alvin being floppy.

I noticed it was becoming embedded back into the ITCZ and wondered why. Usually storms don't dis-connect and then re-connect like that. It does look very bad and hard to find amongst the other blobs of convection which will likely end Alvin very soon. What a reversal.

Wow, Alvin is a crazy storm. IMO 3z will the be the last advisory.

Alvin is a pathetic storm like his 2007 counterpart.

This is not going to be slow, lol.

Your formatting for quotes has been wrong, click preview if in question.

lower right hand corner.

What is it?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Alvin remains a tropical storm, albeit down to 35 knots, according to the 0z ATCF update. I'm not sure how the National Hurricane Center is going to justify this now that it is completely embedded in the ITCZ and has no closed circulation.

EP, 01, 2013051700, , BEST, 0, 96N, 1101W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 0, 40, 1010, 180, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ALVIN, M,

[cycloneye]

Last advisory.


POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013
200 AM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013

ASCAT AND OSCAT DATA SHOW THAT ALVIN LACKS A CLOSED CIRCULATION IN
ITS WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES ALSO INDICATE
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME ELONGATED WITHOUT A WELL-DEFINED CENTER
AND FURTHER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THEREFORE...ALVIN IS NO
LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY.
ALTHOUGH THE REMNANTS WILL BE OVER WARM WATER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY SHOW PERSISTENT WESTERLY
SHEAR...WHICH WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY REGENERATION ATTEMPTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 10.3N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Hurricane Jed]

-sigh-. So much promise and yet....wind shear.......

[Hurricane Jed]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171738
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN...
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WELL
SOUTHWEST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE
GAINED SOME ORGANIZATION DURING THE MORNING...SIGNIFICANT
REDEVELOPMENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[supercane4867]

Alvin is definitely trying to make a come back


TXPZ21 KNES 181229
TCSENP

A. 01E (ALVIN)

B. 18/1200Z

C. 12.1N

D. 116.0W

E. FIVE/GOES-W

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM DEFINED BY PAIR OF CURVED HOOKING CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING AROUND PRESUMED LLCC. LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT POSITION OF CENTER
WITH NO LITTLE NEW MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND EXPANSIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
SHIELD. .35 BANDING GIVES DT=1.5. MET=2.0 BASED ON 24 HOUR DEVELOPMENT
TREND. PT=2.0. FT IS A HIGH END 1.5 BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RUMINSKI


Floaters up again

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT MAY 18 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
PERSISTED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER THIS MORNING...ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AS UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Yellow Evan]

FYI, no EPAC storm has regenerated since 2009.

[SouthDadeFish]

Doesn't look too bad right now:



However, upper-level winds dramatically pick up just to his NW so his future doesn't look promising. You can see the cirrus racing off to the NE on visible loops indicating the brisk winds in the upper levels.

[Hurricane Jed]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191134
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN ARE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ASSOCIATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Hurricane Jed]

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Any shot it had at redevelopment looks to have gone poof!