EPAC: ALVIN - Post-Tropical

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Based on satellite imagery, 90E has developed a low-level center of circulation and appears to be in the process of detaching from the monsoon trough. Happened a little sooner than I expected it to.

Thinking Thursday for classification.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1245 PM PDT TUE MAY 14 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED IF NECESSARY...AND
ROUTINE OUTLOOKS WILL BEGIN AT 5 AM PDT TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Yellow Evan]

The EPac really seems like it just throws on a switch come May 15. Fun to watch.

Yea, in the EPAC, the switch is either on or off. There is no in between.

[SouthDadeFish]

Starting to look a little better on both conventional satellite imagery and microwave imagery:

[galaxy401]

Just in time for the season to start! Wonder how active this season is going to be.

[supercane4867]

TXPZ21 KNES 150016
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90E)

B. 14/2345Z

C. 7.4N

D. 101.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...POSSIBLE DEVELOPING LLCC WITH LESS THAN 2/10 BANDING
THEREFORE THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY. MI DATA NOT USEFUL YET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...AND IT APPEARS THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES
COULD BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

System should be declared over the next few hours.

Honestly wasn't expecting it to organize so quickly...it looks like it will be classified a full 24 hours before I thought it would.

This is good for it..the system has more time to organize as a tropical cyclone now. It may follow the GFS's solution in becoming a minimal hurricane.

[SouthDadeFish]

This 37 GHz TRMM pass was at 09Z and continues to show slightly improved structure:



Here is a 4 panel from the same pass:

[Yellow Evan]

Is the ATCF out? The "if trend continue crap" usually means we have a TD on our hands at 15z.

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep902013_ep012013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201305151245
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

[cycloneye]

EP, 01, 2013051512, , BEST, 0, 80N, 1031W, 30, 1006, TD

[supercane4867]

invest_RENUMBER_ep902013_ep012013.ren

Here comes the first storm!!! Have been witing this for months

[Meow]

Yes this is Tropical Depression One-E (01E).

[cycloneye]

Is not official until NHC releases the first advisory.

[MGC]

Well, will be an impressive start to the EPAC season. 90E has come together quickly.....MGC

[Meow]

TCFA

Code: Select all

WTPN21 PHNC 151330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.8N 102.0W TO 9.5N 109.1W WITHIN
THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 151130Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 103.1W. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.0N 103.1W,
APPROXIMATELY 560 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION OVER A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED NEAR A COL REGION OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE, WHICH IS PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD VENTING AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS TO WARNING STATUS. DUE TO THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION
OF THE LLCC AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE  WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
161330Z.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Is official!

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013
800 AM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON HAS WASTED NO TIME
GETTING STARTED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE BEEN
MONITORING SOUTH OF THE MEXICAN COAST BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT...AND A NEARLY UNBROKEN BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW WRAPS
AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW T2.0 FROM TAFB AND
T1.5 FROM SAB...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A 30-KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE DEPRESSION
IS SITUATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC
WATERS. EVEN THOUGH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO AMPLIFY IN THE
VICINITY OF CALIFORNIA IN THE COMING DAYS...THE DEPRESSION IS SO
FAR SOUTH THAT ANY EFFECTS ON STEERING SHOULD BE MINIMAL. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS POSSIBLE IN 4 TO 5 DAYS ONCE THE SYSTEM
REACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SOLUTIONS THAT SHOW A
STRONGER SYSTEM...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS...BAM MEDIUM...AND BAM DEEP.

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A ZONE OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO
THE EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET...AND IT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE
WARMEST WATERS OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS
BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND
APPROACHES COOLER WATERS. SINCE CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE...IT
SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD AT LEAST BE ABLE TO
KEEP UP WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL INTENSIFICATION RATE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING AND A HIGHER PEAK
INTENSITY THAN SHIPS AND LGEM SINCE THE CLIMATOLOGY-PERSISTENCE
MODEL SHIFOR IS HIGHER THAN EITHER OF THOSE TWO MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 8.2N 103.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 8.6N 105.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 9.1N 107.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 9.5N 108.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 10.0N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 11.5N 113.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 13.0N 115.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 15.5N 117.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Hurricane_Luis]

Now that's good timing east pacific.

Tropical Depression 01E

[RL3AO]

Good looking system. Looks like something that could intensify quicker than expected.