EPAC: BARBARA - Remnants

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Re:

#181 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 30, 2013 2:57 pm

thetruesms wrote:Actually, I think the fairly strange placement of the center (which I think has slightly more to do with surface obs than satellite imagery) is not a reluctance to move Barbara over, but rather to keep her.

Pretty simply, I don't see anything at the surface at all right now, especially when you consider surface obs. But - there might be in the future with some luck since there's still some midlevel spin and obviously some low level convergence over the water where convection is flaring. So, for continuity's sake, they'll keep Barbara around for one more advisory and see what happens. This is nothing new from NHC.

But that introduces a problem - where do you put her? There's not really anything to pin it to. So, do you move her to the Atlantic in case she beats the odds and pulls something together in the Bay of Campeche? You could, but it's probably a whole lot of work, and if you don't really think it's going to pull together over water, kind of pointless. Or since you're picking a conservative route to begin with, do you stay conservative, and keep her in the EPac over land and see what happens? It looks like they used some surface obs (namely an "apparent land breeze" where there should be a sea breeze) to pick something over land to the west of where a new center over water might form.

I don't think either is technically right; for that you'd probably call the circulation opened, declare Barbara done, and start up Andrea if something comes back together at the surface. And that's also precisely what you'd do if you didn't want to shift Barbara to the Atlantic. The fact that she's still around says more to me of their willingness, rather than reluctance to open the Atlantic season with a B storm.


Thank you so much for this detailed post! This should answer most questions out there.
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Tropical Depression

#182 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 30, 2013 3:33 pm

Last Advisory

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
200 PM PDT THU MAY 30 2013

...BARBARA DISSIPATES...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 94.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNW OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT BARBARA NO
LONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND IS THEREFORE
NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST. THE
REMNANTS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH...35 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF BARBARA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...BRINGING STORM TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON BARBARA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH






REMNANTS OF BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
200 PM PDT THU MAY 30 2013

THREE SURFACE OBSERVING SITES NEAR COATZACOALCOS MEXICO HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENTLY REPORTING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...YET
HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING A
WEAK CIRCULATION CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THESE SITES. APPARENTLY
THE LATTER CIRCULATION IS EITHER NOT AT THE SURFACE OR IS EXTREMELY
WEAK AND ILL DEFINED. SINCE BARBARA DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER OF SURFACE CIRCULATION AND LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION...IT NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND
ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED. OUR OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT IS
THAT BARBARA DID NOT MAKE IT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE HAS DISSIPATED...DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF BARBARA IS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND A HEIGHTENED RISK OF DANGEROUS FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES
WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 18.5N 94.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNANTS
12H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Remnants

#183 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Thu May 30, 2013 3:59 pm

I think that barbara has just about made it across, there may be some surface circulation where the black arrow is, but correct me if I am wrong.

Image
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Remnants

#184 Postby MGC » Thu May 30, 2013 4:12 pm

Granted there may not be a circulation at the surface, but a decent circulation appears to be moving NNE into the GOM. Don't know if it will reestablish a surface circulation, only time will tell......MGC
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Remnants

#185 Postby Airboy » Thu May 30, 2013 4:13 pm

Hurricane_Luis wrote:I think that barbara has just about made it across, there may be some surface circulation where the black arrow is, but correct me if I am wrong.



I have been thinking the same watching the sat loop from the last two hours, looks like something is still alive and have started to build up again?
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#186 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 30, 2013 4:15 pm

Question is, (since it's now a disturbance) if it does regenerate will it retain it's name?
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#187 Postby RL3AO » Thu May 30, 2013 4:21 pm

No, it would be 01L.
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#188 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu May 30, 2013 4:23 pm

Although it looks fairly pathetic at the moment, I wouldn't write this thing off yet:

Image

CIMSS TPW shows moisture increasing in the area and shear is around 20 knots.
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Re:

#189 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 30, 2013 4:25 pm

RL3AO wrote:No, it would be 01L.

Even with the MLC still intact?
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#190 Postby RL3AO » Thu May 30, 2013 4:34 pm

For it to keep a name when changing basins, it has to maintain itself as a tropical cyclone.
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Re:

#191 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 30, 2013 4:52 pm

RL3AO wrote:For it to keep a name when changing basins, it has to maintain itself as a tropical cyclone.

Say it maintained itself while crossing but then died. But then re-generated?
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Re: Re:

#192 Postby NONAME » Thu May 30, 2013 5:09 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
RL3AO wrote:For it to keep a name when changing basins, it has to maintain itself as a tropical cyclone.

Say it maintained itself while crossing but then died. But then re-generated?


The NHC said it didn't maintain itself as a Tropical Cyclone. The final advisory lets us know this.
If it would of made it in the Atlantic Basin and maintained itself as a Tropical Cyclone then it would of retained Barbara and Advisories would be put out as such.
So if advisories were initiated in the Atlantic as Barbara and then after it dissipated and regenerated then it would most likely be renamed Barbara again because advisories were already issued with that name in the Atlantic.

From the Final NHC Advisory.

THREE SURFACE OBSERVING SITES NEAR COATZACOALCOS MEXICO HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENTLY REPORTING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...YET
HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING A
WEAK CIRCULATION CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THESE SITES. APPARENTLY
THE LATTER CIRCULATION IS EITHER NOT AT THE SURFACE OR IS EXTREMELY
WEAK AND ILL DEFINED. SINCE BARBARA DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER OF SURFACE CIRCULATION AND LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION...IT NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND
ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED. OUR OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT IS
THAT BARBARA DID NOT MAKE IT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
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#193 Postby brunota2003 » Thu May 30, 2013 5:18 pm

Occurring to the rules (as far as I know), it has to maintain it's low level circulation. They can stop issuing advisories, as long as it maintains the original LLC, it maintains the name. Once the LLC dissipates, it is done.

Edit: I see that has changed, and now it has to maintain itself as a TC, according to the AOML FAQs.
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#194 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu May 30, 2013 5:19 pm

While CIMSS TPW shows a surge of moisture associated with Barbara's remnants, water vapor imagery shows dry air creeping in:

Image
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Remnants

#195 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Thu May 30, 2013 8:40 pm

Howdy gang! First post of the season for me! Wonder how much trouble i can get into this year? LOL. Anyway, just thought I would link from the NOAA Frequently Asked Questions page about the name of a storm crossing over. Man I just felt like John Edwards was in the room. Kudos if you got that joke. :cheesy:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/B5.html
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Re: EPAC: BARBARA - Remnants

#196 Postby dexterlabio » Thu May 30, 2013 9:02 pm

ohhhhh..... I really wished Barbara hanged on in the gulf just for the sake of a crossover tropical cyclone. :lol: Though this could lead to a rebirth as Andrea, maybe?
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#197 Postby Hurricane Jed » Thu May 30, 2013 9:11 pm

Soooooooooooooooo close.
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