EPAC: BARBARA - Remnants

[AJC3]

either that or the radar thing was just some kind of anomaly and should be disreguarded

There has to be some sort of geo-location (mapping) error with the radar. It's the only logical explanation.

[lido]

would it still be barbara if it crossed over land into the boc?

[Kingarabian]

would it still be barbara if it crossed over land into the boc?

Yes. But it has to make it over 6 thousand foot mountain terrain first lol.



Well it's not too bad... considering it's located far away from the most rugged terrain.. but the NHC says there will be very high wind shear even if it were to emerge in the BOC.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks stronger than a minimal hurricane to me:



SSD dvorak gave it a T 4.5 at 18Z.

This rate of intensification from genesis to hurricane right before landfall is very reminiscent of Hurricane Humberto from the Atlantic.

[CrazyC83]

Looks to me like about 80 kt given that Dvorak estimate earlier and the strengthening trend. But that is just me...

[Kingarabian]

It appears to be making landfall.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
NO ADT ANALYSIS AVAILABLE

[Ptarmigan]

Looks stronger than a minimal hurricane to me:



SSD dvorak gave it a T 4.5 at 18Z.

This rate of intensification from genesis to hurricane right before landfall is very reminiscent of Hurricane Humberto from the Atlantic.

Looks quite impressive for a Category 1 hurricane.

[Kingarabian]

000
WTPZ62 KNHC 292012
TCUEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
110 PM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

...EYE OF HURRICANE BARBARA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND MEXICAN RADAR IMAGES FROM EL MOZOTAL INDICATE
THAT BARBARA MADE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATE OF
CHIAPAS AT 1250 PM PDT...1950 UTC...ABOUT 20 MILES...35 KM....WEST
OF TONALA.

SUMMARY OF 1250 PM PDT...1950 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 94.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM W OF TONALA MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM E OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

Well they kept it at 75mph. It looked stronger before though... too bad they didn't do a special update.

[CrazyC83]

000
WTPZ62 KNHC 292012
TCUEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
110 PM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

...EYE OF HURRICANE BARBARA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND MEXICAN RADAR IMAGES FROM EL MOZOTAL INDICATE
THAT BARBARA MADE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATE OF
CHIAPAS AT 1250 PM PDT...1950 UTC...ABOUT 20 MILES...35 KM....WEST
OF TONALA.

SUMMARY OF 1250 PM PDT...1950 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 94.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM W OF TONALA MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM E OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

Well they kept it at 75mph. It looked stronger before though... too bad they didn't do a special update.

They might increase it in post-analysis.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
200 PM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

BARBARA RECENTLY MADE LANDFALL IN THE MEXICAN STATE OF CHIAPAS AS A
CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
THIS IS THE EASTERNMOST LANDFALL LOCATION FOR AN EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC HURRICANE SINCE RELIABLE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1966. IT IS ALSO
THE SECOND-EARLIEST HURRICANE LANDFALL IN THE RELIABLE RECORD.

BARBARA SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AS IT CROSSES THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...AND MOVE INTO A REGION OF
WEAKER STEERING CURRENTS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A
DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS INLAND...RAPID WEAKENING WILL OCCUR...AND
BARBARA WILL PROBABLY BE REDUCED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 12
HOURS OR SO...AND TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE TIME IT ENTERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE SO DISRUPTED
BY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN THAT REGENERATION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IS UNLIKELY. IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO INCREASE IN THE GULF...WHICH WOULD ALSO DISCOURAGE
REDEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED...SHOULD BARBARA
MAINTAIN TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS ALL THE WAY INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...IT WOULD RETAIN ITS NAME.

EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING...DISTURBED WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH BARBARA OR ITS REMNANTS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS WOULD
EXACERBATE AN ALREADY DANGEROUS FLOOD THREAT OVER THE REGION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 16.2N 94.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
12H 30/0600Z 17.3N 93.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 30/1800Z 18.8N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 31/0600Z 19.3N 94.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Yellow Evan]

either that or the radar thing was just some kind of anomaly and should be disreguarded

There has to be some sort of geo-location (mapping) error with the radar. It's the only logical explanation.

MX radar does not have a good track record.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The intensity of the storm will probably be revised in post-season analysis. SAB came back with 90 mph a few hours before landfall, and the storm did nothing but organize up until that point. Now we wait to see if it survives the crossing. It's been over land for 3 hours and no noticeable changes have taken place.

[cycloneye]

Down to Tropical Storm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
500 PM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

...BARBARA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING STILL THE MAIN THREATS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 93.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM N OF TONALA MEXICO
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF TUXTLA GUTIERREZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM
SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE
HURRICANE WARNING FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO SALINA CRUZ HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* SALINA CRUZ TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST. BARBARA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...AND INTO THE
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS A REMNANT LOW LATER ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...AND BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. AN AUTOMATED MEXICAN NAVY OBSERVING STATION AT
PAREDON IN CHIAPAS MEASURED A PEAK GUST TO 75 MPH...120 KM/H
SEVERAL HOURS AGO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER EASTERN OAXACA AND WESTERN CHIAPAS MEXICO...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN
OAXACA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE AFFECTING THE COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD BE SUBSIDING DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BEVEN

[Alyono]

very unlikely that this survives. Iris in 2001 was a near cat 5 and it crosses the same mountains. It was also of a similar size. It dissipated about 12 hours after landfall

[JonathanBelles]

I just got home from work, and I have to apologize. According to that radar, Barbara was clearly on land when I posted the landfall status. I had looked at satellite and was guessing there was some core tilting going on.

Do we know what happened to the radar?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
800 PM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

BARBARA CONTINUES TO QUICKLY WEAKEN WHILE MOVING FURTHER INLAND OVER
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED
CONSIDERABLY...AND WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY RECENT REPORTS OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 45 KT BASED ON A NORMAL INLAND DECAY RATE. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS LIKELY BEING DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND BARBARA IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS BARBARA EMERGING OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AS A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...NONE OF
THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW A CLOSED SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION AT
THAT POINT...AND IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT BARBARA WILL DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING WATER. IN ANY CASE...ONCE THE REMNANTS OF BARBARA
REACH THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEY WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.

OF MORE IMMINENT CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT IS FALLING OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. EVEN THOUGH BARBARA IS
WEAKENING...DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ITS REMNANTS IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE A HEIGHTENED
RISK OF DANGEROUS FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE REGION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 17.1N 93.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 30/1200Z 18.1N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 31/0000Z 18.8N 93.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BEVEN

[CrazyC83]

It's over halfway to the Gulf it appears though...at what point will it lose its closed circulation though?

[CrazyC83]

very unlikely that this survives. Iris in 2001 was a near cat 5 and it crosses the same mountains. It was also of a similar size. It dissipated about 12 hours after landfall

Iris crossed at a much wider spot and had much more time over land. I doubt it will survive, but there is a chance.

[Yellow Evan]

I just got home from work, and I have to apologize. According to that radar, Barbara was clearly on land when I posted the landfall status. I had looked at satellite and was guessing there was some core tilting going on.

Do we know what happened to the radar?

Lesson to be learned: Never trust MX radar. IIRC it went down for nine years once.

[RL3AO]

If something is going to survive, this would be the perfect path to take. Its the narrowest part of Mexico and it has the easiest terrain.