EPAC: BARBARA - Remnants

[CrazyC83]

It looks like it is sitting in the Gulf now...the center appears to have emerged from my view...the ATCF position is over water as well.

[RL3AO]

This would be a first to survive the EPac to Atlantic passage correct? Like I said last night, it took the perfect path.

[SouthDadeFish]

SSD has Barbara listed under the Atlantic section now:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

[wxman57]

It may not last long there.

[SouthDadeFish]

The convective burst has quickly faded:



However, it may have been just enough to warrant the continuation of advisories. We will see.

[greenkat]

There seems to be something going on to the south of Barbara's COC now... another convection burst, maybe?

[tolakram]

The mid level circulation may be shearing off to the east, hard to tell. Doesn't look good at the moment.

[RL3AO]

One advisory as a depression is all I ask for lol.

[cycloneye]

The new Best Track at 12z mantains as TD.

EP, 02, 2013053012, , BEST, 0, 183N, 943W, 25, 1004, TD

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 013.invest

ATCF updated the position on the 12z Best Track.

EP, 02, 2013053012, , BEST, 0, 184N, 949W, 25, 1004, TD

[JonathanBelles]

ATCF updated the position on the 12z Best Track.

EP, 02, 2013053012, , BEST, 0, 184N, 949W, 25, 1004, TD

That seems really far west when you look at satellite.

[ozonepete]

Yup. Satellite loops of course can often be deceiving, but it looks like the center has reformed ENE of that position right on the coast or a tad over the water. We need a satellite image of the lower levels to ascertain that, and or surface readings from the area.

[vbhoutex]

Barbara made it across the isthmus a lot more intact than I expected. Is it a game changer? Too early to tell especially with the llc apparently now just offshore. Still looks like plenty of shear to her N so if there is a process of regeneration I would expect it to be slow. Once she gets further N and more into the shear I don't hold out a lot of hope for an intact core.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
800 AM PDT THU MAY 30 2013

...BARBARA NEAR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO BUT VERY ILL DEFINED...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 95.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BARBARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE
95.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3
MPH...6 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER WILL BE MOVING VERY NEAR OR ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BARBARA IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN A
DAY OR SO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...
BRINGING STORM TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA


TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
800 AM PDT THU MAY 30 2013

FINDING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN A REAL
CHALLENGE THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF ROTATION THAT IS EVIDENT ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH SURFACE WIND
OBSERVATIONS FROM STANDARD AND AUTOMATED MEXICAN WEATHER STATIONS.
IN FACT...THERE IS SOME DOUBT THAT A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER
EVEN EXISTS. HOWEVER...WE THINK THE MOST PRUDENT ACTION AT THIS
TIME IS TO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION UNTIL ADDITIONAL
VISIBLE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA BECOME AVAILABLE. THE CURRENT
ADVISORY POSITION IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE WIND
DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 310/3. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER WILL NOT MOVE VERY FAR INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. SINCE THE SURFACE CENTER HAS BECOME VERY DISRUPTED
AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE FAR FROM LAND...THE FORECAST SHOWS THE
SYSTEM DISSIPATING IN A DAY OR SO.

ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE SHOULD DISSIPATE SOON...HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A
SERIOUS CONCERN. DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF BARBARA IS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF DANGEROUS FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES WILL CONTINUE
OVER THIS REGION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 18.5N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 31/0000Z 18.7N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 31/1200Z 18.8N 96.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA

[Iune]

This would be a first to survive the EPac to Atlantic passage correct? Like I said last night, it took the perfect path.

I believe the last time was in 1949.

[Alyono]

There is nothing where NHC put the center. Not sure how they got 95W. I wonder if they simply do not want this in the BOC since it should die soon anyways

[tolakram]

I don't think there is much at the surface.

[JonathanBelles]

There is nothing where NHC put the center. Not sure how they got 95W. I wonder if they simply do not want this in the BOC since it should die soon anyways

That's what I was thinking.

[weatherwindow]

There is nothing where NHC put the center. Not sure how they got 95W. I wonder if they simply do not want this in the BOC since it should die soon anyways

That's what I was thinking.

With the NHCs choice of verbiage, the handwriting is on the wall. They are following the typical timeline: retain the system for one or two advisories, allowing it to winddown and then drop it. A little disappointed I was looking forward to being on hand for a 50 or 100year event

[TheEuropean]

This would be a first to survive the EPac to Atlantic passage correct? Like I said last night, it took the perfect path.

I believe the last time was in 1949.

Last time it was Northeast Pacific Hurricane Cosme that became Atlantic Tropical Storm Allison (June 1989).

Source: FAQ http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/tcfaqHED.html
(german version: http://www.naturgewalten.de/hurrikan/hurrfaq.htm)

Thomas

[Cyclenall]

I'm still confused as to what is happening with Barb but I'm praying its in the BOC for real, a historical moment for us all to enjoy . No convection? No problem.

There is nothing where NHC put the center. Not sure how they got 95W. I wonder if they simply do not want this in the BOC since it should die soon anyways

The NHC is cheating now . What can of worms does making this technically in the GOM open? I bet the NHC is not looking forward to such can being opened because then the media will jump and pounce, maybe other unknown procedures start .