EPAC: BARBARA - Remnants

[greenkat]

Will there still be a "B" storm if Barbara crosses over into the Atlantic Basin?

[euro6208]

BARBARA RECENTLY MADE LANDFALL IN THE MEXICAN STATE OF CHIAPAS AS A
CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
THIS IS THE EASTERNMOST LANDFALL LOCATION FOR AN EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC HURRICANE SINCE RELIABLE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1966. IT IS ALSO
THE SECOND-EARLIEST HURRICANE LANDFALL IN THE RELIABLE RECORD.

quite impressive...

[CrazyC83]

Will there still be a "B" storm if Barbara crosses over into the Atlantic Basin?

Yes there will be.

[Cyclenall]

NHC don't think it will regenerate in the BOC....lets hope they are right.......MGC

I hope they're wrong, I wouldn't mind seeing a cross-over storm for once. Its not like it would instantly become a category 5 hurricane the minute it touches the BOC. Barbara has the best shot of doing this over any storm I've tracked over the years and even now its a low %. It needs to speed up to the north and cross the thinnest part. And about the high upper level winds, maybe instead of magical wind shear it can be magical lack of .

Would of reached hurricane strength if it had an extra few hours over water.

This cliche didn't apply this time.

They might increase it in post-analysis.

I wouldn't hold my breath, remember Hurricane Carlotta from last season? Should have been upgraded to major status IMO. I thought for sure it would have been.

THIS IS THE EASTERNMOST LANDFALL LOCATION FOR AN EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC HURRICANE SINCE RELIABLE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1966. IT IS ALSO
THE SECOND-EARLIEST HURRICANE LANDFALL IN THE RELIABLE RECORD.

They must mean hurricane for the first record because obviously Hurricane Adrian from 2005 had a much further east landfall as a TD or something. I would have thought there would be other canes to make it that east but maybe not. Impressive stats for Barb.

I'm not certain on how prepared that area that got hit was as they don't get much that often. Probably going to be a shock. My guesses for intensity were 75 knots at peak and 70 knots at LF. It was funny reading everyone's thoughts about it not becoming a hurricane and making LF when both were false. At the end of the day, we can all blame the Mexican radar .

[Hammy]

by the looks of the latest satellite loop, Barbara is speeding up, its very near the 12z forecast point. It also seems to be pulling in warm Gulf air, as there are storms firing along the western feeder band, and high clouds are continuing to fan out away from it, so this could be the first system to move intact across Mexico since (I believe) 1949 if the trend continues.

[brunota2003]

Sorry for my lack of being around! I agree it looked stronger than 65 knots, I'd think 75 to 80 knots with the presentation she had.

[Kingarabian]

YES! She made it to the BOC!

The SSD floater is now listing Barbara under the North Atlantic section

Cold tops are forming over what is left of the center and Diurnal Maximum should help it some.

[Kingarabian]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 300835
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
200 AM PDT THU MAY 30 2013

BARBARA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES NORTHWARD OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. BASED ON THE TIME SPENT OVER LAND AND THE
LACK OF ANY REPORTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DISSIPATING
SOON...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THAT
REASONING. A REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST AT 12 HOURS OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH DISSIPATION SHOWN AT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION NORTH OF
THE CENTER IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IF ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION AND A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION ARE MAINTAINED...BARBARA
COULD EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
THIS MORNING. PLEASE NOTE THAT IF THIS OCCURS...THE NEXT ADVISORY
WOULD BE ISSUED WITH ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND
HEADERS.

DESPITE THE WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE...THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO
BE HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. DISTURBED
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BARBARA IS LIKELY
TO PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND A HEIGHTENED RISK OF DANGEROUS
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 17.8N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 18.7N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Who knows...

[HurricaneBill]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qx4-tWR6R78[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQn_QUc_Iow[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WH79ouoRBiQ[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ip8-eIEFSVs[/youtube]

[Kingarabian]

[weatherwindow]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 300835
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
200 AM PDT THU MAY 30 2013

BARBARA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES NORTHWARD OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. BASED ON THE TIME SPENT OVER LAND AND THE
LACK OF ANY REPORTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DISSIPATING
SOON...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THAT
REASONING. A REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST AT 12 HOURS OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH DISSIPATION SHOWN AT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION NORTH OF
THE CENTER IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IF ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION AND A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION ARE MAINTAINED...BARBARA
COULD EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
THIS MORNING. PLEASE NOTE THAT IF THIS OCCURS...THE NEXT ADVISORY
WOULD BE ISSUED WITH ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND
HEADERS.

DESPITE THE WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE...THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO
BE HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. DISTURBED
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BARBARA IS LIKELY
TO PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND A HEIGHTENED RISK OF DANGEROUS
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 17.8N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 18.7N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Who knows...

Good morning, King...from a quick perusal of the IR sat, we certainly have deep convection and a discernable circulation...Persistance will be the key. If so, I believe the NHC will pull the trigger at 1100 this morning...Rich

[dexterlabio]

The convection firing north of its center is interesting... And much more interesting if it's still called Barbara as it enters the Atlantic region. First named Atlantic tropical cyclone of the season that doesn't start with an 'A'? That's fun.

[StormingB81]

The convection firing north of its center is interesting... And much more interesting if it's still called Barbara as it enters the Atlantic region. First named Atlantic tropical cyclone of the season that doesn't start with an 'A'? That's fun.

I thought they get renumbered. I forgot what storm it was last year went from the atlantic and became a new invest when it entered into the pacific. If so how would that be counted as for the numbers? Sorry if it sounds liek a stupid question I am guessing it would be considered as any other storm whether its a TD or TS or whatever it would be counted as that in the numbers for how many storms we had in a year.

[dexterlabio]

^They were saying if Barbara remains a tropical cyclone, then it would still be Barbara as it enters the gulf. That is yet to be known, though. Forecasts say that the shear will be too high and Barbara will be an open wave soon BUT who knows. It will be just cool to see a crossover storm in the Atlantic region without changing its name.

[Frank2]

Southwesterly shear north of 20N is very strong and that's no doubt why the NHC has forecast dissipation beyond 24 hours, but as the NHC and others here have said apparently it's surviving the crossing into the Gulf (BOC)...

P.S. Our rainy season is off to a big start down here with 6-15 inches of rain during one rainfall event 10 days ago, and now 2-6 in a second event the past 2 days, but hard to say if the season will match the 8 feet of rain recorded at Miami International Airport in 2012, so any leftover moisture from Barbara will only add to what we already have accumulated this month...

Frank

[cycloneye]

A note to the members about the crossover by Barbara from EPAC to BOC is that Storm2k management will not do anything about changing titles,locking threads or adding Invest 90L to this forum until there is official word by NHC about this.

[cycloneye]

The new Best Track at 12z mantains as TD.

EP, 02, 2013053012, , BEST, 0, 183N, 943W, 25, 1004, TD

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 013.invest

[tolakram]

12:15Z, 8:15EDT

[tolakram]

Link for updating sat images: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

[Hurricaneman]

I have a feeling this will be moved to the atlantic basin as of 11AM, it just looks too good