ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

[Hurricane Andrew]

Getting interesting. Wish they would run BAMS/SHIPS guidance.

[Hurricaneman]

Getting interesting. Wish they would run BAMS/SHIPS guidance.

Not happening until there's an invest back up

[cycloneye]

Sun Jun 2 14:49:31 EDT 2013



585

WTNT80 EGRR 021800



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.06.2013



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 25.1N 89.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 05.06.2013 25.1N 89.0W WEAK

00UTC 06.06.2013 26.1N 90.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.06.2013 26.3N 88.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 07.06.2013 27.9N 86.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.06.2013 31.7N 83.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.06.2013 35.7N 78.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 08.06.2013 38.5N 74.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY





THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

[Hurricane Andrew]

Are we getting closer to a new invest then?

[Dave]

Cycloneye this came up on the board...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1005 AM EDT SUN 02 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-002

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 23.5N 87.5W AT 04/1800Z.

[BigB0882]

What do the models see that is pulling this to the North East? That seems like a path more typical of the end of hurricane season, not the first week.

I am very excited to have the season here, I hope things get interesting soon so I can enjoy all the conversation and amazing posts from all of you. I just hope everyone stays safe!

[Hurricane Andrew]

What do the models see that is pulling this to the North East? That seems like a path more typical of the end of hurricane season, not the first week.

I am very excited to have the season here, I hope things get interesting soon so I can enjoy all the conversation and amazing posts from all of you. I just hope everyone stays safe!

A trough

[Hurricane Andrew]

GEM is rolling.

[psyclone]

What do the models see that is pulling this to the North East? That seems like a path more typical of the end of hurricane season, not the first week.

I am very excited to have the season here, I hope things get interesting soon so I can enjoy all the conversation and amazing posts from all of you. I just hope everyone stays safe!

the northeast boot is common at either end of the season for the same reason...the westerlies tend to be farther south at that time of the year. that fits well with june climo.

[Hurricane Andrew]

GEM is weaker, but still the strong end of the guidance envelope.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_19.png

[TheStormExpert]

Good examples of tropical systems in June that took very similar tracks to what this could take are TS Alberto(2006), or TS Barry(2007). Even the famous 2004 season had some very strong troughs in August that caused TS Bonnie, and Hurricane Charley to hit florida from the west. So overall this type of track is very common especially at the beginning and end of a hurricane season.

[gatorcane]

12Z FIM at 78 hours. Trending more west with the low, similar to the UKMET:

[cycloneye]

Interesting the Marine Discussion by NHC.


MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
248 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF MON...THEN LOW TO AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO POSITION AND INTENSITY OF FORECAST SURFACE
LOW...CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE TOWARD ECMWF TRACK BUT SLOWER MOTION
OF THE GFS.


GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET ARE SUGGESTING
A GENERAL TRACK TO THE NE OF THE BROAD LOW PRES AREA AFTER ABOUT
MON. THE 12 UTC GFS TENDS TO LATCH ON TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE
CONVECTION FEEDBACK FROM CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF AND PULL IT
TO THE N TUE AND WED. THE GFS STILL APPEARS FASTER THEN THE ECMWF
THROUGH WED NIGHT...BUT IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE 10M WINDS.
THE ECMWF BECOMES FASTER IN TAKING THE LOW NE ACROSS W CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY THU. EVENING. AT THAT TIME... THE GFS STILL HOLDS BACK
THE LOW OVER THE NE GULF INTO FRI. AFTERNOON. IT THEN MOVES THE
LOW INLAND N FLORIDA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. THE UKMET
IS FARTHER TO THE W THAN THE REST OF GUIDANCE ENVELOP DURING THE
PERIOD...WHILE THE CANADIAN MODEL IS CONSISTENTLY TO STRONG IN
DEVELOPING THE LOW...BUT VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS IN TRACK THROUGH
WED NIGHT BEFORE ACCELERATING THE LOW IN A NNE DIRECTION MOVING IT
INLAND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THU AFTERNOON.

INTERESTINGLY...THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE KEEPS THE LOW IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE THROUGH DAY 5 (FRI)...WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE TAKES
IT NE TO ACROSS N FLORIDA FRI NIGHT. IN ANY EVENT AMPLE MOISTURE
OVER THE SE GULF WILL AND ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SCATTERED TOP NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...SOME WHICH MAY BE ATTENDED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAMIMATS.shtml

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS is trending weaker with a couple of weak lows that move NE from near the Yucatan into the West Coast of Florida. The 96 hours from now graphic is below.

[TheStormExpert]

Local news station meteorologist here in West Palm Beach, FL says some of the models are now not wanting to develop it. I kind of disagree though.

[Alyono]

Is Alan Huffman's model page at americanwx no longer viewable by the public?