ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, - am following the report about a tornado toching down near Fernandina Beach. Meanwhile I have received just over 3 inches so far toady for this event with Andrea. I did meaure a gust to 34 mph in a squall whixh came throuigh my locale about 90 minutes ago.

[jlauderdal]

Yeah, - am following the report about a tornado toching down near Fernandina Beach. Meanwhile I have received just over 3 inches so far toady for this event with Andrea. I did meaure a gust to 34 mph in a squall whixh came throuigh my locale about 90 minutes ago.

fernandina and mayport NAS took a hit, could have been the same cell as it ran up the coast..my in laws on amelia probably didnt even realize there was a storm,

[feederband]

Nice rainage...Another please...

[SouthernBreeze]

Just wondering how much rain coastal SC/NC will get out of this -- we really don't need much rain up here right now.

[Sanibel]

Can't remember the last time one went into the Big Bend.

[Riptide]

Can't remember the last time one went into the Big Bend.

lol, last year - TS Debby. Granted it was not exactly centered inside the Big Bend, kind of a slow mover like Andrea.

[capepoint]

Just wondering how much rain coastal SC/NC will get out of this -- we really don't need much rain up here right now.

Maybe not down there, but the OBX is dry, grass is dying. We need a good heavy rain here. Latest reports say about 4 inches here with locally more.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
800 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2013

...ANDREA MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...
...WIND AND RAIN SPREADING NORTHWARD WELL AHEAD OF THE CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 83.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM NNE OF CROSS CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM W OF GAINESVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF
STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER
* FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTH FLORIDA NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST. ANDREA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15
MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA WILL CONTINUE MOVING INLAND
OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT...AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...AND ANDREA SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS BY SATURDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. CEDAR KEY FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF
43 MPH...69 KM/H. NOAA BUOY 41012 LOCATED 45 MILES EAST OF SAINT
AUGUSTINE FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 42 MPH...
68 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. CROSS CITY FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A
PRESSURE OF 993.4 MB...29.33 IN.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

FLAGLER BEACH NORTH TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...1 TO 2 FT

WATERS LEVELS ARE FALLING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. HOWEVER
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING
THE NEXT HIGH TIDE OVERNIGHT.

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SURGE-
RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND
THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...EASTERN PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...AND EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH DOWNEAST
MAINE.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND
NORTH CAROLINA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[northjaxpro]

Can't remember the last time one went into the Big Bend.

lol, last year - TS Debby. Granted it was not exactly centered inside the Big Bend, kind of a slow mover like Andrea.

Thankfully, Andrea was a fast mover compared to Debby's very slow trek across here a year ago. It appears that we will get fortunate in regards of the rainfall. I have received just over 3 inches at my locale for this event with Andrea to this point, compared to 16 inches I measured in Debby. That's a huge difference to say the least.

As for the waterspouts that hugged the shoreline and moved northward, there was some damage at Mayport NAS and up in Fernandina, but thankfully no one was injured.

Getting winds now steadily between 20-30 mph now that Andrea's weakening COC is now currently inland across the Suawanne River Valley. May see some gusts to tropical storm force this evening and a few more rain squalls move through as Andrea moves through Southeast GA. But, overall, compared to Debby's flooding rains from a year ago, we are coming away from Andrea relatively OK , other than the wind damage out at Mayport and Fernandina and isolated flooding in the area, namely at McCoys Creek near downtown Jax.

[SouthernBreeze]

Does anyone know the forward motion speed of Andrea now?

[ozonepete]

Does anyone know the forward motion speed of Andrea now?

Northeastward at 15 mph. I don't see any change yet but it will be moving faster as the night wears on.

[SouthernBreeze]

Does anyone know the forward motion speed of Andrea now?

Northeastward at 15 mph. I don't see any change yet but it will be moving faster as the night wears on.

THANKS OzonePete - just trying to calculate conditions for my 3AM 75 mi commute - probably not the worst of it, but quite rainy no doubt.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Just wondering how much rain coastal SC/NC will get out of this -- we really don't need much rain up here right now.

It's looking like less and less as the night goes along.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

If Andrea stays mostly over water, it could hold its strength or re-intensify?

I don't think there is very much concern for that at this time. So far the storm has been moving in the predicted directions.

[GTStorm]

Just wondering how much rain coastal SC/NC will get out of this -- we really don't need much rain up here right now.

It's looking like less and less as the night goes along.

As usual...looking like much, much less than forecasted.

[Sanibel]

Can't remember the last time one went into the Big Bend.

lol, last year - TS Debby. Granted it was not exactly centered inside the Big Bend, kind of a slow mover like Andrea.

Yeah. Got to get the carbon out if I'm mixing TS's and H's.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
1100 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2013

...ANDREA WEAKENING SLOWLY AS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE WELL AWAY FROM
THE CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 82.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE WEST COAST
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.4 WEST. ANDREA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF
ANDREA WILL MOVE FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
OVERNIGHT AND THEN MOVE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OVER WATER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER EASTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS AROUND 8
INCHES POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM EASTERN VIRGINIA TO
EASTERN MAINE. ADDITIONAL RAIN TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
IN OUTER BANDS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF ANDREA
OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

FLAGLER BEACH NORTH TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...1 TO 2 FT

WATERS LEVELS ARE FALLING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. HOWEVER
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING
THE NEXT HIGH TIDE OVERNIGHT.

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SURGE-
RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND
THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TORNADOES...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT OVER
COASTAL PORTIONS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA.
A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY FROM EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
NORTHWARD TO COASTAL VIRGINIA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
1100 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2013

ANDREA HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE MOVING INLAND EARLIER THIS
EVENING. THE ONLY REPORT OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ON LAND OR
OVER WATER HAS COME FROM A SHIP OBSERVATION EAST OF SAINT
AUGUSTINE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KT.
ANY WINDS THIS STRONG ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN RANBANDS OFFSHORE TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ANDREA BEARS
LITTLE RESEMBLANCE TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH A PRONOUNCED DRY
INTRUSION NOTED OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER AND THE DEEP
CONVECTION IN A BAND WELL REMOVED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. GIVEN
THAT ONLY SHALLOW CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER...
INTERACTION WITH BAROCLINIC FEATURES WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME THE
MECHANISM SUPPORTING THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS
ANDREA IS ABSORBED BY A LIFTING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE NEW NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS THINKING...AND SHOWS
ANDREA BECOMING POST-TROPICAL BY 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS COULD
OCCUR SOONER IF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE DOES NOT IMPROVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/13...AS THE CENTER SLOWED A LITTLE WHILE
MOVING ONSHORE. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CYCLONE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
U.S. EAST COAST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND THEN TURNING
QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE NEW NHC FORECST IS
A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS DUE
TO THE INITIAL MOTION AND IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AFTERWARD. THE NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF AND ALSO LIES NEAR THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT ANDREA WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS...WE DO NOT EXPECT TO EXTEND THE TROPICAL WARNINGS
ANY FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST. OUR CURRENT INTENTION IS THAT
ANY HAZARDOUS WIND CONDITIONS FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD
TO NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE HANDLED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WARNING PRODUCTS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 30.3N 82.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 07/1200Z 33.0N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 08/0000Z 36.8N 76.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 08/1200Z 41.0N 70.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/0000Z 44.7N 63.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/0000Z 45.5N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/0000Z 45.5N 24.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[WilmingtonSandbar]

So, the rain shield has broken down considerably this evening and night. As I am sitting here just south of Wilmington NC, we are currently getting a light but steady rain with intermittent slightly heavier stuff. I am wondering if there is anything that is going to regenerate and intensify the rain shield? I don't see it happening, and think that after this one band passes over us in a couple hours, tomorrow is going to be bright and sunny. Any thoughts?

[ozonepete]

So, the rain shield has broken down considerably this evening and night. As I am sitting here just south of Wilmington NC, we are currently getting a light but steady rain with intermittent slightly heavier stuff. I am wondering if there is anything that is going to regenerate and intensify the rain shield? I don't see it happening, and think that after this one band passes over us in a couple hours, tomorrow is going to be bright and sunny. Any thoughts?

Yup, it looks like all of SC and all of southern NC aren't going to get much rain out of this after all, and a sunny day tomorrow. For whatever reason (whatever dynamics this particular TC and synoptic setup have) the heavy rain will be concentrated north of you from Hatteras northward.

[GlennOBX]

The latest forecast from the local NWS office says we should expect tropical storm conditions for today (Friday) and tonight. But, they've dropped any mention of any wind gusts in the 45-50mph range, which were in the previous forecast, and they now show sustained wind speeds are expected to be lower than minimum tropical storm strength. Confusing.

Here's the forecast:

Friday
Tropical storm conditions expected. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 78. South wind 20 to 25 mph increasing to 31 to 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Friday Night
Tropical storm conditions expected. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11pm and 2am, then a chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Southwest wind 29 to 34 mph decreasing to 16 to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.