ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al912013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201306030025
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2013, DB, O, 2013060300, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912013
AL, 91, 2013060300, , BEST, 0, 220N, 868W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 013.invest

[cycloneye]

All models here.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Here we go.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Why is the map not updating yet?

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like they went with the vortmax near the tip of the Yucatan, looks to be getting better organized faster than I predicted, and I do predict that this will be a typical tropical system with most if not all the precipitation on the east side

[Hurricane Andrew]

Give it an hour or so.

[gatorcane]

Looking at the WV image, we see dry air over the GOM (orange), plus if you loop the image, you can see the clouds moving quickly ENE north of the Yucatan which indicates high shear over the GOM just north of 91L plus there is some shear over 91L and land interaction issues. For those reasons, I believe is why the NHC is indicating only marginally favorable environmental conditions.

Loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[Alyono]

why a new thread for this? This is the exact same general area as 90L, which was a broad low

[SouthDadeFish]

I just finished a blog on newly named Invest 91L. For those interested, here are my thoughts:

http://fischerwx.wordpress.com/

[wxman57]

Looks fairly certain that whatever does eventually develop is heading NE toward Florida. Shear doesn't appear to be extremely strong south of 24N. I anticipate a TD or a weak TS by Wed as it heads toward the FL Peninsula. Main threat will be rainfall.

[Hurricane Andrew]

why a new thread for this? This is the exact same general area as 90L, which was a broad low

Because it is a new designation, new model guidance, new initialization.

[SouthDadeFish]

why a new thread for this? This is the exact same general area as 90L, which was a broad low

90L was essentially the remnants of Barbara in the Bay of Campeche, while Invest 91L is designated for the area of convection that originated in the NW Caribbean. And Storm2k always starts new threads for new invests

[cycloneye]

First Tropical Model plots


044
WHXX01 KWBC 030037
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0037 UTC MON JUN 3 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912013) 20130603 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130603 0000 130603 1200 130604 0000 130604 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.0N 86.8W 23.3N 87.9W 24.2N 88.5W 24.7N 89.3W
BAMD 22.0N 86.8W 23.4N 86.2W 24.8N 85.3W 26.3N 84.1W
BAMM 22.0N 86.8W 23.3N 87.1W 24.2N 87.2W 24.8N 87.5W
LBAR 22.0N 86.8W 23.1N 86.5W 24.6N 86.0W 26.2N 85.1W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 29KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130605 0000 130606 0000 130607 0000 130608 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.9N 90.0W 24.2N 91.9W 22.6N 93.3W 22.1N 95.0W
BAMD 27.9N 82.7W 31.3N 78.1W 34.8N 71.4W 39.2N 65.2W
BAMM 25.6N 87.8W 26.0N 88.5W 25.9N 88.2W 27.6N 84.2W
LBAR 27.8N 83.6W 30.4N 79.9W 33.4N 75.8W 40.0N 68.9W
SHIP 29KTS 26KTS 21KTS 16KTS
DSHP 29KTS 26KTS 21KTS 16KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.0N LONCUR = 86.8W DIRCUR = 25DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 21.2N LONM12 = 87.2W DIRM12 = 27DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 19.9N LONM24 = 87.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Hurricane Alexis]

Is there a general consensus of where it's headed?

[Hurricane Andrew]

Is there a general consensus of where it's headed?

Florida, then scoots NE.

[cycloneye]

why a new thread for this? This is the exact same general area as 90L, which was a broad low

90L was essentially the remnants of Barbara in the Bay of Campeche, while Invest 91L is designated for the area of convection that originated in the NW Caribbean. And Storm2k always starts new threads for new invests

He said it all.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Is there a general consensus of where it's headed?

Florida, then scoots NE.

But specifically what part of FL? Even though the impacts won't change.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Is there a general consensus of where it's headed?

Florida, then scoots NE.

But specifically what part of FL? Even though the impacts won't change.

West Coast, AL/FL border to Tampa.

[SouthDadeFish]

SHIPS keeps shear around 25-30 knots for most of the next 72 hours.

[cycloneye]

Why is the map not updating yet?

All is in motion for this invest as they have runned the Bams and that will trigger the updating of the graphic.