WPAC: YAGI - Tropical Storm

[xtyphooncyclonex]

We have been experiencing severe thunderstorms with heavy rain and strong winds here in Cebu.

It's so scary because the rain gets heavy and persists for over 3 hours. The other night, it has been raining for over 12 hours and caused floods. Same thing happened yesterday, although it lasted for only 4 hours accompanied with winds.

And it's so dark outside and there is a thunderstorm coming.

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (YAGI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 20.1N 131.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 131.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 21.7N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 23.3N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 25.0N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 27.7N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 31.9N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 34.3N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 37.3N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 131.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 03W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 432 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z. //
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (YAGI) WARNING
NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 432 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS
CONVECTIVE DEPTH AS FEEDER BANDS WRAPPED SLIGHTLY TIGHTER AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A HOOK FEATURE ON A 082114Z
SSMI/S MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 42 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD, RESPECTIVELY. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS DIRECTLY UNDER AN ANTICYCLONE
IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND HIGHLY
EFFICIENT OUTFLOW ON ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE A
DESCENDING TROUGH OVER THE YELLOW SEA IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE. THE
STRONGEST OUTFLOW IS TOWARD A TUTT CELL TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. THE STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER AFTER TAU 24 AND
CAUSE TS 03W TO TRACK MORE NORTHWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT TAU 36-48, AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 48, COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE TS 03W.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS YAGI WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STEERING RIDGE AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. THE CYCLONE
WILL MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 96 NEAR ISE WAN ON THE ISLAND OF
HONSHU THEN DRAG ACROSS THE KANTO PLAIN. THE LAND INTERACTION COUPLED
WITH HIGH VWS ALOFT WILL CAUSE TS 03W TO RAPIDLY DECAY AND POSSIBLY
DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE
HAS BECOME WIDELY SPREAD AFTER TAU 24 WITH JGSM ON THE LEFT AND GFS
ON THE RIGHT MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST. //
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

We have been experiencing severe thunderstorms with heavy rain and strong winds here in Cebu.

It's so scary because the rain gets heavy and persists for over 3 hours. The other night, it has been raining for over 12 hours and caused floods. Same thing happened yesterday, although it lasted for only 4 hours accompanied with winds.

And it's so dark outside and there is a thunderstorm coming.

PAGASA is not saying its from the storm but it kind of is, inflow in to it. Plus another area in the Sulu sea is raising eye brows also being spun off the ITCZ.

[euro6208]

The size of Yagi is astonishing.

[mrbagyo]

wow... several models( GFS, NOGAPS, NAVGEM, CMC) are supporting a development in the West Philippine Sea/ South China Sea -
GFS, NOGAPS and NAVGEM takes it to Hainan province while CMC is taking it to Taiwan...
ECMWF?

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (YAGI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 21.2N 132.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 132.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 22.8N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 24.7N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 27.3N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 29.7N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 31.8N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 32.2N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 132.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 03W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 403 NM
SOUTHEASTWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.//
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yt8Gs_A_zGY[/youtube]

Most recent video I made.

[RobWESTPACWX]

wow... several models( GFS, NOGAPS, NAVGEM, CMC) are supporting a development in the West Philippine Sea/ South China Sea -
GFS, NOGAPS and NAVGEM takes it to Hainan province while CMC is taking it to Taiwan...
ECMWF?

Indeed, NAVGEM was gun ho on it yesterday they slowly backed off though. It will take some time but with the enhancement of the monsoon of the PI I think moisture for it to start off will be there. Any thoughts?

[dexterlabio]

Was actually more surprised that there were ensemble members (GFS) picking up something from the wake of Yagi...but they kinda backed off in the next runs... If I'm not mistaken, NAVGEM was also picking up something to develop in the Philippine Sea this week..

By the way, Euro was also on board with the tropical system in SCS this week.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Storm Yagi

[Meow]

A banding eye

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (YAGI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 22.5N 133.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5N 133.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 24.5N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 27.1N 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 29.3N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 31.0N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 31.8N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 23.0N 133.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 03W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 393 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND
110300Z. //
NNNN

[euro6208]

A banding eye

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 986.0mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.5 4.0

USING THE EYE TECHNIQUE WITH AN OW EYE, OW SURROUNDING
RING AND MG FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. PT AND MET
YIELD A 3.0. DT NOT CONSIDERED REPRESENTATIVE, SO FT IS BASED ON
PT AND MET.

this is a typhoon!

[RobWESTPACWX]

Short lived though, it looks like it was lost just as quick as it came in.

[mrbagyo]

here's the visible loop



Uploaded with ImageShack.us


looks like a severe tropical storm or maybe an entry level typhoon

[Hurricane_Luis]

A banding eye

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 986.0mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.5 4.0

USING THE EYE TECHNIQUE WITH AN OW EYE, OW SURROUNDING
RING AND MG FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. PT AND MET
YIELD A 3.0. DT NOT CONSIDERED REPRESENTATIVE, SO FT IS BASED ON
PT AND MET.

this is a typhoon!

Any ideas why JMA or JTWC have not upgraded to at least a severe tropical storm.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Mainly because it quickly fell apart afterwards. At I just didnt hold up in the long run. Any how here are my thoughts below for today.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RvdsgaAs6XM

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Storm Yagi

[RobWESTPACWX]

My latest video update, a little weather share from Shibuya as well.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bzhfqRG2DQ8[/youtube]

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (YAGI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 30.9N 138.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 30.9N 138.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 30.9N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 30.5N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 29.9N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 30.9N 138.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 03W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM SOUTHWARD
OF CAMP FUJI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.//
NNNN