WPAC: YAGI - Tropical Storm

[dexterlabio]

98W INVEST
15kts
1010mb

at 7.7 N 129.5 E



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This could be the area the models were showing...after the previous 2 invests failed to become anything..

[dexterlabio]

It actually looks broad but somehow impressive.



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[Meow]

It looks better than some storm in Atlantic.

[Meow]

Will it be a subtropical low?

Code: Select all

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.1N 129.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 330 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KOROR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION,
PRIMARILY LOCATED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC. A 052311Z SSMIS IMAGE
SHOWS FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC
WITH SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION EAST OF 130 EAST LONGITUDE. A 060057Z
ASCAT IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC AND SHOWS 10
TO 15 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY WITH STRONGER WINDS DISPLACED
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK TUTT CELL NEAR 20N 135E. DYNAMIC MODELS
INDICATE WEAK DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH OF 20N AND
INTENSIFIES AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[mrbagyo]

[RobWESTPACWX]

Those in Okinawa would find this output from NAVGEM interesting.

[RobWESTPACWX]

It looks better than some storm in Atlantic.

I agree, we aren't blessed with C-130s to fly in to storms out here, all honesty this is more organized than "Andrea" but no way to confirm a center of circulation on it.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Another Map I made up

[mrbagyo]

I agree, we aren't blessed with C-130s to fly in to storms out here

yes, we don't have C-130 or P3 Orion,
but how about using AEROSONDE which was used on tropical storm Ophelia way back in 2005.
It would be a much cheaper and safer alternative( though I don't know if it can withstand a wpac's typhoon wind ) ...

I hope a weather agency here in the WPAC can do a partnership with the Australian manufacturer
http://www.aerosonde.com

we need this \/

[dexterlabio]

Hey guys check out the Euro solution. I don't if it's the same system as this one but it shows a possible TD south of Taiwan then ramping up as it tracks towards Hongkong. That is roughly a week out and this is the first model run from Euro that shows a tropical cyclone....i don't know but Euro hasn't been as reliable as it was some years ago for me when it comes to medium-range forecasts........

[dexterlabio]

Now it seems that Euro is forecasting late development to happen in the next few days and so the system is not deep enough to get streered to the east. That's why it is showing TC formation off Taiwan. Haha do I get this right?

Though right now I think the Euro is underestimating its recent devlopment because it seems that TC formation will happen sooner.

[Meow]

I cannot trust ECMWF so much. In 2010, it estimated Megi would make landfall over Hainan. In this April, it estimated Imelda would be a VITC.

I wonder if the dynamic model mentioned by JTWC is ECMWF, which also estimates slow development until 20N.

[RobWESTPACWX]

ECMWF I love using after the storm gets going, its very accurate and detailed in the forecast. Initialization I have noticed lacks though.

[mrbagyo]

Euro is showing a formation near taiwan and a landfall near Hong Kong??

IMO Euro is at its best when it comes to mid latitude cyclones

Initialization I have noticed lacks though.

I agree, they seem to do second emotions on TC formations

[dexterlabio]

Got to agree the Euro gets it right once a well-defined circulation has formed. To be fair ECMWF was the first to hint central Mindanao landfall of Bopha, and the northeast US landfall of Sandy as a gargantuan extratropical storm. Its forecast skill in medium range is now gone...unlike what it was back in 2009. I wonder what kind of change or upgrade that they did on the computer model...

[euro6208]

This is such a huge monster storm It's been very breezy, cloudy, and rainy these past couple of days and I expect nothing will change until it moves further north near Okinawa.

[euro6208]

It looks better than some storm in Atlantic.

Not some but mostly many

[Meow]

Not some but mostly many

Actually I meant Andrea, but it looks better now. I doubt if 98W can really intensify so soon, as JTWC even does not support.

[supercane4867]

Not some but mostly many

Actually I meant Andrea, but it looks better now. I doubt if 98W can really intensify so soon, as JTWC even does not support.

Andrea had a closed circulation when it got named, but this doesn't have one yet

[Meow]

A tropical depression at 18Z.



WWJP25 RJTD 061800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 061800.
...
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 13N 129E WNW SLOWLY.
...

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=