WPAC: LEEPI - Tropical Storm

[supercane4867]

6.0N 132.0E

[Typhoon Hunter]

Models picking up this one and want to develop it.

CMC does what it usually does and turns it into quite a strong storm hitting Taiwan. (Will treat that with a pinch of salt for now.)

Below are GFS and UKMET, the latter being quite aggressive for so early in the game. One to watch:





It's going to be passing over some very high SSTs and some of highest OHC in the basin. Lets see if atmospheric conditions will give it a helping hand too!

[mrbagyo]

the TUTT to the north will provide a good outflow channel for 91w and can help it's intensification process(but it can also hamper the development if it creates to much VWS).
The biggest concern for the PI though is the south west monsoon aka "HABAGAT" that will be enhanced by this system once it goes up north since there is a huge chunk of cloudiness in the South China Sea/ West Philippine Sea.

[ManilaTC]

This potential storm and another one to the SCS by mid next week will definitely ramp up the rain totals for Southern Luzon

[Typhoon Hunter]

Hi Clark.

Nice image there but do you have any reference for it ie what the colours means and over how long a period? Thanks!

[euro6208]

This is such a large disturbed area of disturbance producing torrential showers. I wouldn't want to be cruising over the Philippine sea

[vrif]

ABPW10 PGTW 152000

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.6N 129.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 365 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DISORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 151647Z
AMSU-B IMAGE INDICATES NO DISCERNIBLE LLCC, HOWEVER, THIS IMAGE
HINTS AT FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 151215Z ASCAT IMAGE AND A 151454Z OSCAT
IMAGE PROVIDE THE PRIMARY EVIDENCE FOR A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE AND
SHOW A DEFINED, SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 10-15 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER AND HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY EASTERLY,
DIFFLUENT FLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL LOCATED NEAR 20N 130E. THE
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD,
PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST OF THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.6N
129.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 126.9E, APPROXIMATELY 375 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WEAK, BROADLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 160134Z
ASCAT PASS SUPPORTS THE OBSERVED ELONGATION OF THE LLCC IN MSI, WITH
THE WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
WITHIN A MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY EASTERLY,
DIFFLUENT FLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KNOTS).
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
TUTT CELL LOCATED NEAR 20N 128E. THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD, PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST OF THE
PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[mrbagyo]

PAGASA is now classifying 91w as Tropical Depression "Emong"



JMA also...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 12N 128E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[vrif]

Upgraded to Medium

ABPW10 PGTW 161830

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.3N
126.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 127.7E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
161636Z PARTIAL AMSU IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. A 161544Z OSCAT IMAGE INDICATED AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS WITH HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TUTT
CELL LOCATED NEAR 21N 127E. THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD, PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST OF THE
PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Meow]

What are you folks waiting for? It will be a tropical storm within 24 hours!



TD
Issued at 22:05 UTC, 16 June 2013

<Analyses at 16/21 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N13°05'(13.1°)
E127°00'(127.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 17/09 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N15°00'(15.0°)
E125°55'(125.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)
Radius of probability circle 150km(80NM)

<Forecast for 17/21 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°55'(16.9°)
E125°00'(125.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[dexterlabio]

If you're waiting for the JTWC warning, it has already a TCFA issued. I am just too tired to copy and paste texts.

Nonetheless, this is already a TD.

[Meow]

If you're waiting for the JTWC warning, it has already a TCFA issued. I am just too tired to copy and paste texts.

Nonetheless, this is already a TD.

At least we can post the first advisory to prove.

[Meow]

JTWC’s forecasting is more northward than JMA’s.

Code: Select all

WTPN21 PGTW 162200
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 127.6E TO 18.7N 126.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 162130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.3N 127.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5N
127.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 127.2E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED, CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 161851Z SSMI IMAGE
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND SOUTH
QUADRANT WITH A BROAD LLCC. A 161544Z OSCAT IMAGE INDICATED AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS WITH HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL
LOCATED NEAR 21N 127E. THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT TRACKS
NORTHWARD, PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST OF THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
172200Z.//

[mrbagyo]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

it's consolidating its rain bands beautifully

[vrif]

ABPW10 PGTW 170600

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.3N
127.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 126.9E, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH IMPROVED, CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A
162149Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND SOUTH QUADRANT WITH A
BROAD LLCC. A 161541Z OSCAT IMAGE INDICATED AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION
WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS WITH HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A GENERALLY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS A
POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE STARTS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE LLCC. THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS BEING FURTHER ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL
LOCATED NEAR 22N 127E. THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD, PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST OF THE
PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21
PGTW 162200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Hey guys, my latest video on this. Likely a TS through Tuesday but not a Typhoon at all. My quick thoughts, here is the video. Also I just changed the title.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBioAtepGhA[/youtube]

[RobWESTPACWX]

Where JMA expects the storm to be Wednesday Morning.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Jeez COAMPS!! A little aggressive eh?

[euro6208]

TD02 in the atl looked the same way as this system over 24 hours ago but still no upgrade although this is more organized with plenty of convection...weird

PGTW- 1.5
KNES- 1.0