ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Still no ATCF file but the models came out.

[cycloneye]

Is strange that ATCF hasn't plot yet for 93L but the models are out.



CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1353 UTC SUN JUN 16 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932013) 20130616 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130616 1200 130617 0000 130617 1200 130618 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 82.5W 14.6N 85.4W 15.0N 88.1W 15.5N 90.3W
BAMD 14.0N 82.5W 15.0N 84.6W 15.9N 86.6W 16.9N 88.6W
BAMM 14.0N 82.5W 14.8N 85.0W 15.4N 87.2W 16.0N 89.0W
LBAR 14.0N 82.5W 15.1N 84.6W 16.3N 86.8W 17.6N 88.9W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 25KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130618 1200 130619 1200 130620 1200 130621 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.1N 92.2W 16.8N 95.2W 17.4N 98.0W 18.0N 101.1W
BAMD 17.8N 90.5W 19.2N 94.0W 20.1N 97.3W 20.8N 101.3W
BAMM 16.4N 90.8W 17.1N 94.2W 17.4N 97.7W 17.5N 101.5W
LBAR 18.9N 90.8W 21.8N 93.7W 24.4N 94.9W 25.7N 95.4W
SHIP 37KTS 40KTS 45KTS 42KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 82.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 13.4N LONM12 = 80.5W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 78.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[lrak]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Floater is up too...hmmm sure looks good on the visible.

[cycloneye]

First mission slated for Monday afternoon.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 16 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-016

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 17/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 17/1700Z
D. 17.0N 87.0W
E. 17/1930-2330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL MISSION FOR 18/2000Z
NEAR 19.5N AND 91.5W

[Hurricane Andrew]

Wow! Taking this rather seriously. That is tomorrow. Won't it be over land?

[ScottNAtlanta]

It looks to me like the models initialized this too far south. I see whats looking like banding on the southern side thats still over water north of the land mass. While this may not be at the low levels its becoming easier to see on the floater

[gatorcane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/93L/flash-vis-long.html
Floater is up too...hmmm sure looks good on the visible.

Yes it is definitely looking good. The only thing that looks to be an inhibiting factor is land as upper-level conditions look good for development.

Lots of high pressure over the Gulf and Florida will prevent it from moving that way.

72-hour surface forecast from TAFB showing the low over Mexico just south of the BOC:

[Sanibel]

No doubt about it trying to curl up.

[cycloneye]

If 93L gains a little more latitude then it may have the chance to develop into at least a TD before it reaches the Yucatan. And depending on how much latitude it has gained prior to emerge at BOC,that will be the key to a more substantial development in that body of water.

[MGC]

Showing some spin this morning, little shear and good amount of convection. Only question is land interaction. I do recall a TD forming over the swamps down there so I guess it is possible.......MGC

[cycloneye]

Decent outflow.

[Aric Dunn]

It looks like the northern convection i mentioned yesterday was the area to watch. it maybe developing a surface circ just offshore and may skirt the northern coast of Honduras

[HURAKAN]

still needs to do a lot of work

[cycloneye]

12z GFS doesn't develop 93L as is hugging the Mexican coast at BOC.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Really interesting. I will make my first prediction tonight.

[SFLcane]

Heavy rains spreading into central america..bla.

Can we fast foward to august?

[Alyono]

I'd say based upon the 12Z guidance, an EPAC TC is more likely than a BOC one

Does look organized though. Almost certainly would have developed if it would have remained offshore

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE COASTS OF
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. ALTHOUGH
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THE DISTURBANCE
EMERGES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN A DAY OR SO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN

[Alyono]

that also means a 70 percent chance of the system not developing, which means development is not being forecast

[Aric Dunn]

strong ridging to the north not going much farther than it is now. except for if a surface circ can develop offshore to the north in the convection which is quite possible.