ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Remains at 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND OVER BELIZE
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...
BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Aric Dunn]

very surprised......

[Hurricaneman]

I think the NHC is going to be conservative until recon gets there to be honest which is a good approach until land pressures start really lowering

[floridasun78]

ok this now coving more nw carribbean sea this pretty strong wave for june

[ozonepete]

The maximzed upper-level divergance is centered almost exactly where a low-level circulation seems to be organizing. Maybe a tad farther west.

I'm just wondering are they sending recon to 93L

Tentatively scheduled for tomorrow I think, right Luis?

I'm not Luis but I think he's away the moment. Recon is scheduled to take off at 17z (1pm EDT).

Thanks, T13. Btw, there is a known skew to those divergence and convergence charts in CIMSS (and others as well, including shear). They have grid placement problems so that they are often off by 50-100 miles. I don't know that they have ever tried to fix it or why they can't, but you should always keep that in mind.

[Alyono]

the dynamical models can be initialized a bit to the south and it will not affect the forecast. Contrary to what many post here... they are able to depict center reformations since they are dynamical models

[Aric Dunn]

the dynamical models can be initialized a bit to the south and it will not affect the forecast. Contrary to what many post here... they are able to depict center reformations since they are dynamical models

in most cases yeah but in this particular case its a matter of being over land or water and atm... the water scenario appears to be taking shape so the 50 to 100 miles is rather important atm...

also there ability to forecast reformations is known. however they have not seen the changes today thus the initialization would of course affect the model runs being over land or water...

[ozonepete]

very surprised......

(that prob remains at 30%)

Me too. I don't understand why they would say it's still disorganized. At a minimum I would say it's more organized than this morning.

[Aric Dunn]

very surprised......

(that prob remains at 30%)

Me too. I don't understand why they would say it's still disorganized. At a minimum I would say it's more organized than this morning.

yeah more organized but still disorganized in terms of a organized "tropical system "

[ozonepete]

the dynamical models can be initialized a bit to the south and it will not affect the forecast. Contrary to what many post here... they are able to depict center reformations since they are dynamical models

Yeah but they are still really bad at center reformations in developing TCs, especially when the center is close to land and 50-100 miles makes a big difference. So your point is important, but in this case I think the models will have to go noticeably more to the north.

[ROCK]

I have never seen a model forecast center refromations with ANY type of skill or consistency. IMO, the center is still offshore and is reforming to the lower pressure around those -80C cloud tops would be my guess. Will make a difference in track and might make the BOC.....JMO

[Alyono]

probably what NHC means is that there are no signs of a surface circulation

though the convection is also disorganized with most well away from the MLC

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 93, 2013061700, , BEST, 0, 154N, 848W, 20, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal932013.dat

[vbhoutex]

This is what Jeff Lindner has to say about 93L:

Strong tropical wave moving into the western Caribbean Sea/central America currently producing numerous thunderstorms over the SW Caribbean Sea. Visible images and sporadic surface observations from the Honduran coast suggest any center of circulation has moved inland over central America early this afternoon.

This disturbance is forecast to track WNW mainly inland over central America and may very briefly emerge over the extreme SW Caribbean Sea near Belize on Monday. There will not be enough time over water for the system to organize and intensify. After that the system will maintain a WNW track and enter into the Bay of Campeche on Tuesday or Wednesday. Conditions in the southern Bay of Campeche looks extremely favorable for development of this system due to light wind shear and water waters. Additionally the concave shape of the southern Gulf tends to help organize low level circulations. There is little global guidance support for this system, and this is likely due to some of the models keeping the system inland over Mexico and not reaching the Bay of Campeche. Should the low level center reach the Bay of Campeche there is a good chance of a quick development tropical storm.

Mid level ridging along the US Gulf coast will keep the system moving toward the WNW with a landfall likely along the eastern Mexican coast Thursday. Any effects of this system are currently expected to remain well south of the TX coast including any potential for increased rain chances as ridging looks too strong currently to allow any potential northward movement of moisture

.

[ozonepete]

probably what NHC means is that there are no signs of a surface circulation

though the convection is also disorganized with most well away from the MLC

Yup. That makes sense to me. I'm still surprised by how much more of a northerly component there is to the developing circulation. Must be that the mid to upper trough is pulling out more quickly and the ridge has not built back in a lot yet. The other negative for development before landfall is the pretty decent forward speed, though that's a little hard to judge. But I would think all of this puts you guys in south Texas a little more in play.

[gatorcane]

NHC experimental marine graphic depicting the situation:

[Aric Dunn]

looking at obs there appears to be weak broad surface circ offshore the eastern tip of Honduras.

[cycloneye]

looking at obs there appears to be weak broad surface circ offshore the eastern tip of Honduras.

How do you see the position of 00z Best Track?

AL, 93, 2013061700, , BEST, 0, 154N, 848W, 20, 1009, DB

[Aric Dunn]

looking at obs there appears to be weak broad surface circ offshore the eastern tip of Honduras.

How do you see the position of 00z Best Track?

AL, 93, 2013061700, , BEST, 0, 154N, 848W, 20, 1009, DB

too far south by about 100 miles and over land lol and there are multiple pressures of 1008 but hey only one mb

[Hurricaneman]

I have a feeling recon tomorrow will find this well NE of where best track is going to put it at that time