ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KNHC 191900
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022013
A. 19/18:17:30Z
B. 19 deg 39 min N
095 deg 00 min W
C. NA
D. 39 kt
E. 082 deg 33 nm
F. 119 deg 40 kt
G. 053 deg 113 nm
H. EXTRAP 1006 mb
I. 22 C / 396 m
J. 24 C / 396 m
K. 23 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF308 0102A CYCLONE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 40 KT 053/113 17:36:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 41 KT 231/21 18:25:10Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
Convection NE of center. Little convection SW of center.

[Florida1118]

#26


000
URNT15 KNHC 191934
AF308 0102A CYCLONE HDOB 26 20130619
192500 1953N 09521W 9668 00357 //// +225 //// 064026 027 024 000 01
192530 1954N 09522W 9662 00366 //// +223 //// 064027 028 024 000 01
192600 1955N 09523W 9664 00363 //// +223 //// 065027 028 025 000 01
192630 1956N 09524W 9665 00365 //// +223 //// 064028 028 025 000 01
192700 1957N 09525W 9666 00365 //// +224 //// 065028 029 026 000 01
192730 1958N 09527W 9663 00370 0081 +225 +223 064029 031 024 001 01
192800 1959N 09528W 9661 00373 //// +225 //// 066027 030 024 001 01
192830 2000N 09529W 9668 00368 //// +225 //// 062027 029 024 000 01
192900 2002N 09530W 9663 00373 0083 +225 +223 066029 031 024 000 01
192930 2003N 09531W 9668 00368 //// +225 //// 070028 028 023 000 01
193000 2004N 09533W 9666 00372 0085 +227 +220 069029 030 023 000 00
193030 2005N 09534W 9666 00372 0086 +227 +222 069028 030 021 000 00
193100 2006N 09535W 9667 00373 0087 +228 +223 072025 027 022 000 00
193130 2007N 09536W 9664 00377 0087 +230 +225 070026 026 022 000 00
193200 2009N 09537W 9660 00379 0088 +229 +228 069024 025 021 000 01
193230 2010N 09539W 9661 00379 0088 +229 +227 071024 025 019 001 01
193300 2011N 09540W 9664 00377 0089 +229 +226 072023 023 021 000 00
193330 2012N 09541W 9668 00374 0090 +228 +226 070022 023 021 000 01
193400 2013N 09542W 9664 00379 //// +224 //// 068022 024 023 001 01
193430 2014N 09543W 9672 00374 //// +225 //// 067022 024 023 001 01
$$
;

[cycloneye]

Second VDM.

URNT12 KNHC 191935 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022013
A. 19/19:18:10Z
B. 19 deg 38 min N
095 deg 04 min W
C. NA
D. 36 kt
E. 138 deg 31 nm
F. 267 deg 27 kt
G. 141 deg 23 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 22 C / 392 m
J. 24 C / 398 m
K. 24 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF308 0102A CYCLONE OB 09 CCA
MAX FL WIND 41 KT 227/16 18:24:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 31 KT 312/34 19:29:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT

[Florida1118]

#27


000
URNT15 KNHC 191944
AF308 0102A CYCLONE HDOB 27 20130619
193500 2015N 09544W 9662 00384 0094 +226 +225 071021 022 019 000 01
193530 2017N 09546W 9662 00384 0095 +228 +224 073021 022 018 000 00
193600 2018N 09547W 9669 00378 0096 +228 +225 071020 021 014 001 00
193630 2019N 09548W 9661 00387 //// +225 //// 069020 020 016 000 05
193700 2019N 09550W 9660 00387 //// +225 //// 060018 019 /// /// 05
193730 2018N 09550W 9662 00385 //// +225 //// 062016 019 009 002 01
193800 2017N 09550W 9666 00380 0096 +227 +220 063018 019 010 001 00
193830 2015N 09550W 9664 00384 0097 +230 +217 066018 019 012 002 00
193900 2013N 09550W 9664 00383 0097 +227 +223 067016 017 013 001 01
193930 2012N 09550W 9663 00384 //// +225 //// 060016 016 013 002 01
194000 2010N 09551W 9664 00383 //// +225 //// 060016 017 011 001 01
194030 2009N 09551W 9662 00387 //// +227 //// 050013 017 008 000 01
194100 2007N 09551W 9668 00378 //// +225 //// 053014 015 006 001 01
194130 2005N 09551W 9662 00384 //// +242 //// 053014 015 007 003 01
194200 2004N 09551W 9670 00377 //// +233 //// 044013 014 013 003 01
194230 2002N 09551W 9665 00382 //// +224 //// 042012 014 013 003 01
194300 2001N 09551W 9664 00383 //// +221 //// 028010 012 009 003 01
194330 1959N 09551W 9661 00385 //// +219 //// 011008 011 010 001 01
194400 1957N 09551W 9664 00384 0097 +222 //// 349012 017 019 004 01
194430 1956N 09551W 9666 00384 //// +212 //// 317025 029 025 002 01
$$
;

[cycloneye]

Barry looks to be organizing at a good rate by looking at this visible image.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Satellite says the center may be in the process of relocating farther north.

Recon found 45 knot flight-level, 40 knot surface, and still haven't investigated the SE side where I believe the strongest winds are.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 192004
AF308 0102A CYCLONE HDOB 29 20130619
195500 1920N 09553W 9664 00367 0080 +226 +195 326048 049 038 004 00
195530 1919N 09553W 9664 00368 0079 +230 +188 325048 048 036 001 00
195600 1917N 09553W 9665 00367 0077 +242 +186 326041 047 036 001 00
195630 1915N 09553W 9668 00363 0076 +247 +183 328043 044 036 001 00
195700 1913N 09553W 9663 00368 0076 +248 +182 329044 045 036 001 00
195730 1911N 09553W 9663 00368 0076 +246 +182 328046 046 034 001 00
195800 1909N 09553W 9668 00363 0078 +235 +202 331045 046 030 000 00
195830 1908N 09553W 9660 00371 0077 +238 +195 330046 047 030 001 00
195900 1906N 09553W 9667 00363 0076 +240 +195 330046 047 030 001 00
195930 1904N 09553W 9670 00362 0077 +236 +196 332044 046 027 002 03
200000 1902N 09553W 9660 00370 0076 +235 +198 330042 043 025 002 00
200030 1901N 09551W 9666 00363 0075 +236 +194 329043 044 025 002 00
200100 1900N 09549W 9667 00362 0074 +238 +192 328044 044 027 001 03
200130 1900N 09548W 9660 00368 0074 +239 +186 328043 044 /// /// 03
200200 1901N 09547W 9667 00363 0076 +231 +195 330042 043 029 000 00
200230 1902N 09546W 9665 00366 0077 +227 +199 330041 043 029 000 00
200300 1903N 09545W 9670 00360 0075 +237 +183 329042 043 031 000 00
200330 1904N 09543W 9659 00368 0074 +241 +182 328039 041 031 002 00
200400 1905N 09542W 9666 00363 0074 +236 +189 330040 041 032 002 00
200430 1906N 09541W 9668 00362 0075 +235 +192 329038 039 035 000 00
$$
;

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 191935 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022013
A. 19/19:18:10Z
B. 19 deg 38 min N
095 deg 04 min W
C. NA
D. 36 kt
E. 138 deg 31 nm
F. 267 deg 27 kt
G. 141 deg 23 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 22 C / 392 m
J. 24 C / 398 m
K. 24 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF308 0102A CYCLONE OB 09 CCA
MAX FL WIND 41 KT 227/16 18:24:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 31 KT 312/34 19:29:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;

[Dave]

DECODED VDM FROM ABOUT 30 MINS AGO

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 19:35Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Tropical Depression: Number 2 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 19:18:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°38'N 95°04'W (19.6333N 95.0667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 181 miles (291 km) to the NW (309°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the SE (138°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 267° at 27kts (From the W at ~ 31.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the SE (141°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 392m (1,286ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 398m (1,306ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 24°C (75°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the quadrant at 2:27
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 31kts (~ 35.7mph) in the quadrant at 3:12
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX FL WIND 41 KT 227/16 18:24:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 31 KT 312/34 19:29:00Z

[Dave]

[Dave]

00
URNT15 KNHC 192014
AF308 0102A CYCLONE HDOB 30 20130619
200500 1907N 09540W 9658 00370 0075 +232 +192 326038 039 034 001 00
200530 1908N 09539W 9664 00363 0075 +225 +202 327036 037 033 002 00
200600 1909N 09538W 9662 00366 0076 +218 +206 323039 040 036 001 00
200630 1910N 09537W 9664 00362 0075 +215 +207 321041 044 036 003 00
200700 1911N 09536W 9656 00370 0073 +220 +199 319044 046 038 003 00
200730 1912N 09535W 9667 00359 0073 +219 +204 317041 043 038 004 00
200800 1913N 09534W 9665 00360 0072 +224 +199 315040 044 039 003 00
200830 1914N 09533W 9664 00360 0071 +220 +206 315040 042 039 001 00
200900 1915N 09532W 9670 00354 0070 +217 +208 317041 042 035 003 00
200930 1917N 09531W 9666 00357 0070 +216 +210 317041 042 036 003 00
201000 1918N 09529W 9661 00362 0069 +216 +210 315041 042 036 000 00
201030 1919N 09528W 9664 00357 0069 +215 +209 313042 043 038 000 00
201100 1920N 09527W 9666 00356 //// +214 //// 314038 041 039 001 01
201130 1921N 09526W 9668 00355 //// +212 //// 312035 036 038 001 01
201200 1922N 09525W 9663 00360 //// +212 //// 307038 039 037 002 01
201230 1923N 09524W 9666 00356 0070 +212 //// 302040 041 036 001 01
201300 1924N 09523W 9662 00360 //// +211 //// 298039 041 037 000 01
201330 1925N 09521W 9668 00352 //// +210 //// 298039 041 037 000 01
201400 1926N 09520W 9665 00354 //// +211 //// 296039 041 038 002 01
201430 1927N 09519W 9660 00359 //// +214 //// 296036 040 038 002 01
$$
;

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 192024
AF308 0102A CYCLONE HDOB 31 20130619
201500 1929N 09518W 9660 00357 //// +216 //// 293031 036 037 001 01
201530 1930N 09517W 9663 00352 //// +220 //// 290025 029 037 001 01
201600 1931N 09516W 9660 00355 //// +223 //// 289022 026 032 003 01
201630 1932N 09515W 9663 00351 //// +223 //// 291019 021 029 001 01
201700 1934N 09514W 9666 00345 //// +227 //// 301016 018 026 002 01
201730 1935N 09514W 9666 00346 //// +226 //// 291014 014 023 001 01
201800 1935N 09514W 9666 00346 0055 +230 //// 307013 015 020 004 01
201830 1938N 09512W 9672 00344 //// +230 //// 007008 012 018 005 05
201900 1939N 09511W 9662 00352 0057 +233 //// 025006 008 019 001 05
201930 1939N 09510W 9661 00352 0056 +232 //// 034007 007 020 000 05
202000 1938N 09508W 9663 00349 //// +231 //// 026007 008 017 001 01
202030 1938N 09507W 9664 00347 //// +234 //// 018005 006 016 000 01
202100 1937N 09505W 9665 00346 0052 +235 +234 000005 006 017 001 01
202130 1937N 09504W 9664 00345 //// +235 //// 287003 004 012 000 01
202200 1936N 09502W 9664 00346 //// +235 //// 219007 009 011 000 05
202230 1937N 09501W 9662 00349 //// +235 //// 202010 011 016 000 01
202300 1938N 09459W 9667 00347 //// +234 //// 163008 009 016 000 01
202330 1939N 09458W 9662 00352 //// +231 //// 155011 012 014 001 01
202400 1940N 09457W 9664 00350 //// +230 //// 134015 017 015 001 01
202430 1941N 09456W 9661 00355 //// +229 //// 131017 018 020 000 01
$$
;

[TexasF6]

Barry is looking good! What quick organization...The BOC doesn't disappoint with perfect conditions! Perhaps the "C" storm will help us fill up Lake Travis....

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 192029
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022013
A. 19/20:21:40Z
B. 19 deg 37 min N
095 deg 03 min W
C. NA
D. 39 kt
E. 232 deg 36 nm
F. 318 deg 46 kt
G. 232 deg 39 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 22 C / 393 m
J. 24 C / 396 m
K. 24 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF308 0102A CYCLONE OB 12
MAX FL WIND 47 KT 270/42 19:50:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
Scattered convection on west semicircle and outbound to NE
;

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 192029
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022013
A. 19/20:21:40Z
B. 19 deg 37 min N
095 deg 03 min W
C. NA
D. 39 kt
E. 232 deg 36 nm
F. 318 deg 46 kt
G. 232 deg 39 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 22 C / 393 m
J. 24 C / 396 m
K. 24 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 01
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF308 0102A CYCLONE OB 12
MAX FL WIND 47 KT 270/42 19:50:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
Scattered convection on west semicircle and outbound to NE
;

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 192034
AF308 0102A CYCLONE HDOB 32 20130619
202500 1942N 09455W 9663 00351 //// +227 //// 127019 020 023 001 01
202530 1943N 09454W 9667 00350 //// +229 //// 129020 020 024 000 01
202600 1944N 09453W 9667 00351 0061 +227 +227 125021 022 028 002 01
202630 1946N 09451W 9659 00359 0062 +228 +226 128024 025 033 001 01
202700 1947N 09450W 9669 00351 //// +219 //// 123028 030 034 002 01
202730 1948N 09449W 9663 00357 //// +222 //// 128029 030 035 003 01
202800 1949N 09448W 9668 00356 //// +221 //// 123032 033 036 001 01
202830 1950N 09447W 9661 00362 //// +218 //// 121035 036 034 002 01
202900 1951N 09446W 9664 00361 0073 +216 //// 122036 036 035 005 01
202930 1952N 09445W 9662 00363 0076 +220 +220 124037 037 036 010 00
203000 1953N 09444W 9667 00359 0076 +223 +223 125036 038 038 011 00
203030 1954N 09443W 9667 00362 0076 +222 +219 127038 038 033 007 00
203100 1955N 09442W 9661 00368 0077 +220 +220 127037 038 031 005 01
203130 1956N 09441W 9662 00369 //// +217 //// 131035 036 031 000 01
203200 1957N 09440W 9666 00367 0080 +223 +217 129036 037 029 002 00
203230 1958N 09439W 9665 00368 0081 +220 +219 130034 035 029 001 01
203300 1959N 09438W 9666 00369 0082 +222 +221 130032 033 028 000 01
203330 2000N 09436W 9659 00375 0083 +222 //// 130032 033 028 000 01
203400 2001N 09435W 9663 00372 0083 +225 +223 130030 031 025 002 01
203430 2002N 09434W 9665 00370 //// +224 //// 130028 030 025 002 01
$$
;

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARRY ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
400 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2013
HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 95.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES




TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
400 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM BARRY...THE SECOND
NAMED CYCLONE OF THE 2013 SEASON. SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM
THE AIRCRAFT YIELD AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. SOME SFMR
VALUES WERE A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT THESE WINDS WERE RAIN
CONTAMINATED AND WERE DISCARDED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR BARRY TO
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY JUST BEFORE LANDFALL DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS. RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES
INLAND...BUT RAINS WILL CONTINUE.

BARRY HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARS SPEED IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. ONCE INLAND...AND THE CENTER
BECOMES DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WESTWARD OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ UNTIL
DISSIPATION. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS FLOW PATTERN IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST WESTWARD MOTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND
WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO PRIMARILY IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SO PLEASE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER
LOCATION OF THE CYCLONE.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 19.6N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 19.6N 96.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 19.6N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 21/0600Z 19.5N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA