WPAC: BEBINCA - Tropical Storm

[Meow]

In the South China Sea

[dhoeze]

what is the chance of this developing?

[vrif]

what is the chance of this developing?

According to JTWC for the next 24 hours... low.

ABPW10 PGTW 182300

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.5N 115.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 600 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DISORGANIZED-FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 182001Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES NO DISCERNIBLE LLCC, HOWEVER, THERE ARE HINTS OF
FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A
NEARBY SHIP REPORT INDICATES 11 KNOT WINDS AT 1002 MB. THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW (5 TO 10 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (~30 DEG CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED OUTFLOW BY A TUTT CELL LOCATED NEAR 22N
120E. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WITH A TRACK
MEANDERING NORTHWARD WITHIN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[vrif]

Now upgrade to a medium

ABPW10 PGTW 190300

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.5N 115.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 600 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED-FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A
182229Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES NO DISCERNIBLE LLCC, HOWEVER,
THERE ARE HINTS OF FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
OF THE LLCC. A NEARBY SHIP REPORT INDICATES 10 KNOT WINDS AT 1003
MB. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW (5
TO 10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (~30 DEG CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ENHANCED ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT POLEWARD OUTFLOW MAY BE ENHANCED BY THE PRESENCE OF A TUTT CELL
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS WITH A TRACK MEANDERING NORTHWARD WITHIN THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION AND PROXIMITY
TO A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5N
115.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 115.6E, APPROXIMATELY 242 NM
NORTHWEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED-FLARING DEEP CONVECTION.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE NO DISCERNIBLE LLCC, HOWEVER,
FORMATIVE BANDING, ALBEIT FRAGMENTED, IS APPARENT OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KKNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALSO, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WITH A TRACK
MEANDERING NORTHWARD WITHIN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE SUSTAINED
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[Typhoon Hunter]

It's looking pretty solid right now, tight curve on satellite and very intense convection. I wouldn't be surprised if this goes on to become TS Bebinca in the next few days. Model consensus shows a threat to S China.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[vrif]

TPPN11 PGTW 200038
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (E OF VIETNAM)
B. 19/2332Z
C. 15.5N
D. 116.5E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. FRAGMENTED .30 WRAP ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PET AGREES,. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
19/1945Z 15.4N 116.8E SSMI
19/2215Z 15.2N 116.9E SSMS
BERMEA



WTPQ21 RJTD 192100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 192100UTC 14.8N 116.9E POOR
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 202100UTC 17.8N 114.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[vrif]

TCFA


WTPN21 PGTW 200430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6N 118.0E TO 19.3N 116.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
200400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N
118.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5N
115.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 118.0E, APPROXIMATELY 185 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
LLCC. A 192215Z SSMIS IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THAT THE LLCC IS ORGANIZING
WITH A MORE DEFINED STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (15 TO 25 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY FAIR OUTFLOW. TWO SHIP
OBSERVATIONS AT 20/00Z (100 NM NNW AND 80 NM ESE) CONTINUE TO
INDICATE 22 TO 32 KNOT SUSTAINED PERIPHERAL WINDS AND SLP AS LOW AS
1003 MB; HOWEVER, CORE WINDS AND STRUCTURE ARE BEGINNING TO
CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001
MB. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK NORTHWARD INTO LOWER VWS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210430Z.//
NNNN

[vrif]

WDPN32 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A DEVELOPING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CURVED BANDING. AN
OLDER 201300Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED THE LLCC HAS BECOME SYMMETRIC
WITH 30 KNOT WIND SPEEDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 05W IS LOCATED
UNDER A DIVERGENT REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN CHINA. THE STR IS ALSO CREATING MODERATE LEVELS (15 TO 20
KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), HELPING TO VENT THE SYSTEM
ALONG THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE AT 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 05W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
REFLECTION OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR, THE
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN
THE TIMING OF THE STR BUILDING NORTH OF TD 05W. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO FAVORABLE
SSTS AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, THE MODERATE LEVELS OF
VWS WILL MITIGATE MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS. BEYOND TAU 48, TD 05W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER
SOUTHEAST CHINA AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72.
C. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LLCC WILL REMAIN OVER
SOUTHERN CHINA AND WILL BE FULLY DISSIPATED BY TAU 96.//
NNNN

TPPN11 PGTW 202118

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (E OF VIETNAM)

B. 20/2032Z

C. 17.9N

D. 116.8E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .35 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 2.0 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
20/1732Z 17.2N 117.3E MMHS


BERMEA








WTPQ21 RJTD 202100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 202100UTC 18.0N 116.4E POOR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 212100UTC 20.2N 114.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[vrif]

Besides White Typhoon Warnings being issued in Guangdong coastal regions of mainland China. HK hoisted T1 warning at 7:40 HKT (201306202340 UTC) and Macau hoisted T1 at 8:00 HKT (201306210000 UTC)

[vrif]

JMA has upgraded 05W to TS BEBINCA

WTPQ21 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1305 BEBINCA (1305) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210000UTC 18.0N 116.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 220000UTC 20.1N 113.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 230000UTC 20.9N 111.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 240000UTC 22.5N 109.4E 160NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[vrif]

WDPN32 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS BUILDING TOWARD A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A RECENT 202202Z SSMIS
AND THE POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WERE USED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE MSI TO POSITION THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
TD 05W IS LOCATED UNDER A DIVERGENT REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. THE STR IS ALSO CREATING MODERATE
LEVELS (15 TO 20 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HELPING TO VENT
THE SYSTEM ALONG THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE AT 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
TD 05W HAS BEEN TRACKING MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, WITH WBAR COMING INTO CLOSER ALIGNMENT WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS. DUE TO THE INCREASED TRACK SPEEDS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, THERE IS NOW HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO FAVORABLE SSTS AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, THE MODERATE LEVELS OF VWS WILL
MITIGATE MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS TD
05W CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST, LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN CHINA HAS BEEN FORECAST TO OCCUR
AROUND TAU 36. BEYOND TAU 36, TD 05W WILL WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS THROUGH ITS DISSIPATION AROUND TAU 72.//
NNNN

[Alyono]

Not sure about the tracks north of the Gulf of Tonkin. Both the GFS and EC have this in the Gulf of Tonkin

Latest GFS has landfall in about 24 hours

[vrif]

WDPN32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (BEBINCA) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (BEBINCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 228 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
AN AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 211223Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY-
CURVED, SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER
WITH AN ISOLATED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT DUE TO STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35
KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND A SHIP
OBSERVATION, LOCATED 37 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER, INDICATING
WINDS 010 AT 32 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, THE INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED
BY A 210400Z OSI-SAF OSCAT IMAGE AS WELL AS THE SSMIS WIND DATA.
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE IR
ANIMATION AND SSMIS IMAGE. TS 05W IS TRACKING QUICKLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER
SOUTHEAST CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 36 THEN SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 THEN DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. THIS FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REMAINS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION, WHICH HAS REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT AND SHOWS A MORE
REALISTIC TRACK INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM UNDER THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED
STR. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 12 DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION AND CONTINUED STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVER VIETNAM BY TAU 48. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[Hurricane_Luis]

June; The month of sheared and disorganised systems.

Tropical Storm Bebinca

[Typhoon Hunter]

Yup, it's usual to see sheared systems in the S China Sea in June like Bebinca. This storm actually reminds me a lot of recent systems such as tropical storm Nangka in 09, Haima and Sarika in 2011 and Doksuri last year.

Won't be long before the shear relaxes and the threat of "red meat" tropical systems exists in the SCS ie. Vicente last July.

Also of interest was the west shift in the modelling and forecasts for Bebinca. I've noticed this happen a lot in the past (models underestimating the strength of the ridge?) and will be interesting to see if this occurrs with other storms near East Asian landmass this season.

[euro6208]

WTPN32 PGTW 220300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 009A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 19.6N 111.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 111.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.8N 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.4N 107.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.5N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 22.8N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 110.8E. TROPICAL STORM 05W (BEBINCA),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 229 NM SOUTHWESTWARD OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z,
222100Z AND 230300Z.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED TYPOGRAPHICAL ERROR ON
WIND-SPEED FORECAST AT TAU 48. //
NNNN

[euro6208]

landfall...

[euro6208]

WTPN32 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 19.5N 109.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 109.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.0N 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 20.7N 107.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 21.5N 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.2N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 109.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (BEBINCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 217 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z
AND 231500Z. //
NNNN

[Meow]

JTWC: 25kt
JMA: 40kt