EPAC: COSME - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 250841
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013
200 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013

MICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE INTERNAL
AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD STRUCTURES HAVE CHANGED LITTLE SINCE
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN FACT...UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES HAVE
LEVELED OFF AT ABOUT T3.6/57 KT FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS. THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS RECENTLY BECOME ELONGATED NORTH-TO-SOUTH AND THE CENTER
IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. A
BLEND OF DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...RECENT ADT VALUES...
AND CIRA AND CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 47 KT AND 49 KT...
RESPECTIVELY...YIELDS AN AVERAGE INTENSITY OF 55 KT...WHICH WAS
USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS
SYMMETRICAL AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.

MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK
WERE USED TO DETERMINE THE LOCATION OF COSME...WHICH YIELDS AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/14 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. COSME IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG AND WESTWARD-EXPANDING MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. AFTER THAT...A RAPIDLY WEAKENING COSME
SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND
FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE SUITE...AND FOLLOWS THE SPEED OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCA.

UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATE THAT COSME
HAS AGAIN MOVED INTO A MODERATELY UNFAVORABLE MID-LEVEL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH MAY BE THE CAUSE OF THE RECENT DISHEVELED
LOOKING INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MORE FAVORABLE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
REGIMES LATER TODAY...ALLOWING COSME TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE
BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES SUB-25C SSTS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. STEADY TO
RAPID WEAKENING IS THEN FORECAST TO BEGIN AFTER THE CYCLONE MOVES
OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS BY 48 HOURS...AND COSME IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY
FORECAST...AND REMAINS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE DECAY-SHIPS AND LGEM
INTENSITY MODELS.

THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE PROVIDED BY
THE TAFB IS THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL
FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH WILL IN TURN AFFECT MUCH OF
THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LARGE SWELLS PROPAGATE NORTHWARD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 16.5N 109.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 17.2N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 17.9N 113.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 18.5N 116.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 19.3N 118.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 20.4N 124.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 20.9N 129.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0600Z 20.9N 134.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[brunota2003]

Well, it does look like my forecast is going to bust, at least as far as RI goes. Wind shear, combined with size, appears to have prevented the inner core from completely coming together. Oh well, maybe next time

[cycloneye]

Close to be a hurricane if not is already.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track up to 60kts

EP, 03, 2013062512, , BEST, 0, 173N, 1102W, 60, 990, TS

[cycloneye]

Cosme becomes a Hurricane


BULLETIN
HURRICANE COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013
800 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013

...COSME BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...CENTER TO PASS NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 110.7W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES



HURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013
800 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT COSME HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A WELL-DEFINED
CONVECTIVE BAND PATTERN AND OCCASIONAL APPEARANCES OF AN EYE.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 65 KT.
IN ADDITION...A RECENT AMSU OVERPASS SHOWED AN ALMOST-CLOSED
EYEWALL WITH AN ACCOMPANYING INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 67 KT. BASED ON
ALL OF THE ABOVE...COSME IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.

COSME HAS JOGGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY WITH
A 12-HOUR MOTION OF 305/16. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. COSME IS EXPECTED TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTWARD-EXPANDING MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. AFTER THAT TIME...COSME SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY
WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW AS IT WEAKENS. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS PARALLEL TO...BUT NORTH OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK
BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. THE NEW TRACK LIES NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHICH IS MORE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED THAN NORMAL.

COSME IS IN A LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK HAS IT REACHING 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS SHOWS SOME
STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS...FOLLWED BY STEADY
WEAKENING OVER DECREASING SSTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 24-36 HOURS...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT
72 HOURS...AND SUBSEQUENTLY DECAY INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 96
HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE PROVIDED BY
THE TAFB IS THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL
FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 17.7N 110.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 18.2N 112.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 18.9N 114.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 19.6N 117.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 20.4N 119.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 21.5N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 21.5N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1200Z 21.5N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Yellow Evan]

Looking like it wants to see eventually.

[Yellow Evan]

Eyewall steadily devloping.

[Ntxw]

Only major system going in tropics across the globe. Also only area with MJO influence.

[tolakram]

Cosme from the FTP site

ftp://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/goeswest-l ... view2/vis/

17:00Z, 1 PM EDT



Someone has to say it .... Cosme looks cosmic.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Up to 80 mph per the 18z ATCF update.

EP, 03, 2013062518, , BEST, 0, 177N, 1118W, 70, 985, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 20, 0, 20, 1009, 300, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, COSME, D,

[Hurricane_Luis]

Hurricane Cosme

[Yellow Evan]

Cosme looking really nice. Won't be shocked to see it go to 75 knots at 21z.

[gatorcane]

Yeah Cosme is looking really good. With high SSTs and low shear, should continue to strengthen.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013

VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN EYE HAS
FORMED...THOUGH INFRARED IMAGERY ONLY PERIODICALLY SHOWS THIS
FEATURE. CORRESPONDINGLY...THE TAFB/SAB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE VALUES HAVE
INCREASED AND SUGGEST A RANGE OF 65 TO 77 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KT...SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...COSME JOGGED BACK TO THE LEFT SOME AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ANALYZED TO BE 295/15. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS
NORTHWEST. AS COSME GRADUALLY SPINS DOWN OVER COOLER WATERS...THE
SYSTEM SHOULD TURN TOWARD A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY AT A SOMEWHAT
SLOWER SPEED AS IT IS ADVECTED ALONG BY THE MID TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION AT THE
12 AND 24 HOUR POINTS AND CLOSE TO THE TRACK THEREAFTER. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GLOBAL AND
REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS.

WHILE WEAK NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OCCURRING NOW AND FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...
COSME INSTEAD WILL LIKELY BE PEAKING SHORTLY IN INTENSITY DUE TO
ITS TRAVERSING RAPIDLY COOLING WATERS. ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK...COSME SHOULD PASS THE 26C ISOTHERM TONIGHT AND REACH
SUB-22C SSTS BY THURSDAY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE
PEAKING SHORTLY FOLLOWED BY RATHER QUICK WEAKENING DUE TO RATHER
HOSTILE THERMODYNAMICS. THE PREDICTION ANTICIPATES THE CYCLONE TO
BECOME A REMANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...BUT THIS COULD EVEN OCCUR
SOONER IF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISSIPATES EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
CLOSEST TO THE LOGISTIC GROWTH EQUATION MODEL.

THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII IN ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF THE CYCLONE PROVIDED BY TAFB IS THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH
SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH
WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND
THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 17.9N 112.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 18.5N 114.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 19.3N 116.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 20.3N 119.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 20.9N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 21.8N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1800Z 22.0N 136.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

[Yellow Evan]

Just me, but I think Cosme could weaken slower than expected due to it's large size.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track up to 75kts

EP, 03, 2013062600, , BEST, 0, 178N, 1128W, 75, 981, HU

[Yellow Evan]

Just looking better and better.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013

A BANDING EYE HAS BEEN INTERMITTENTLY PRESENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT COSME NEARLY HAD A CLOSED EYEWALL AROUND 0000 UTC. DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 75 KT.
HOWEVER...THE WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE CLOSING.
COSME IS LOCATED OVER A SHARP GRADIENT IN SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...AND IS MOVING INTO A HOSTILE OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT.
STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT...AND COSME IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS.

COSME CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED AT 290/12. WHILE THIS RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER
COSME GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE MAY LIFT SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD...ALLOWING COSME TO GAIN A LITTLE LATITUDE. AFTER
THAT...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES
INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE NEW
FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND HAS NOT
CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII ARE THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH
SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 17.9N 113.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 18.6N 115.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 19.5N 117.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 20.3N 120.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 20.9N 123.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 21.7N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0000Z 22.0N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0000Z 22.0N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/PASCH

[Yellow Evan]

I think Cosme is peaking.

[Cyclenall]

Just looking better and better.

I wasn't impressed even at 02z, looks worse now. Didn't see much of a huge structural change of the cyclone yesterday. It kept trying to wrap-around and only had some mild success.