EPAC: COSME - Post-Tropical

[Extratropical94]

06Z BT says Cosme at next advisory:

EP, 03, 2013062406, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1048W, 35, 1003, TS, COSME,

[euro6208]

Very much like a WPAC system development wise. This is what we've been missing this year

The size of this storm is actually small for a WPAC storm.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013
200 AM PDT MON JUN 24 2013

DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND SEVERAL SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL
STORM COSME. IN FACT...ASCAT-B AND ASCAT-A SCATTEROMETER PASSES AT
0404Z AND 0450Z...RESPECTIVELY...INDICATED SEVERAL 34- TO 37-KT
WIND VECTORS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE ASCAT DATA ALSO
REVEALED THAT COSME HAD MOVED MORE WESTWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND THAT THE CENTER AS LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A
SMALL CDO-LIKE CONVECTIVE FEATURE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/09 KT. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
MID-LEVEL SHEAR OF 10-15 KT AS INDICATED IN UW-CIMMS SHEAR ANALYSES
IS THE LIKELY REASON FOR THE RECENT WESTWARD MOTION. HOWEVER...
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A TEMPORARY MOTION AND COSME IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
CYCLONE GRADUALLY MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. AFTERWARDS...A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF COSME
SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY 48
HOURS. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE EXPECTED WEAKENING
AND VERTICALLY SHALLOW CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED WESTWARD WITHIN
THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. SINCE COSME IS ALREADY AT
LEAST 30 NMI TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...THE NEW
ADVISORY TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...
AND BASICALLY LIES ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN EDGE OF TIGHTLY
PACKED MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN UNDERCUTTING THE
OTHERWISE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS BEEN
HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER. HOWEVER...AS COSME CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...THE
CYCLONE WILL ENTER A LESS HOSTILE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR UNTIL THE SYSTEM
REACHES MUCH COOLER WATERS BY 72 HOURS. DESPITE VERY FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...THE
LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF AT LEAST 90 NMI SHOULD KEEP
INTENSIFICATION SLOWER THAN THE AVERAGE RATE OF ONE T-NUMBER PER
DAY. BY 72 HOURS...COSME WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND
RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO ENSUE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS SIMILAR TO A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND SHIFOR INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 12.8N 105.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 13.9N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 15.2N 108.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 16.2N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 17.0N 113.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 18.5N 118.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 19.7N 124.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 20.0N 129.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track up to 45kts

EP, 03, 2013062412, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1058W, 45, 998, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 013.invest

[gatorcane]

Nice looking system this morning, with very deep convection over the center (upper-left hand corner of image):

[tolakram]

Live global composite IR view: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Early Visible

[mrbagyo]

nice overshooting top near the center

The size of this storm is actually small for a WPAC storm.

this isn't small! average sized TC if in WPAC, IMO.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013
800 AM PDT MON JUN 24 2013

A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF COSME BEGAN JUST
AFTER 0600 UTC AND HAS PERSISTED SINCE THAT TIME. SOME NORTHERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR STILL APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING THE
CYCLONE...YET TAFB AND SAB BOTH PROVIDED INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45
KT. THE OBJECTIVE UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE IS EVEN HIGHER AT 50 KT.
EITHER WAY...COSME IS STRENGTHENING...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BEING SET AT 45 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.

THE CENTER HAS JUST RECENTLY BECOME EASIER TO LOCATE BASED ON A 1241
UTC SSMIS OVERPASS AND THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES. THE BLOW-UP
OF CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE CAUSED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO JUMP
TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...BUT SMOOTHING THE TRACK YIELDS A 12-HOUR
MOTION OF 315/11 KT. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IN 2-3 DAYS...WHICH WILL
TEND TO STEER COSME WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK
MODELS...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE.

THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
AROUND COSME SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE CYCLONE TO
CONTINUE STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS PERIOD
ALSO HAPPENS TO COINCIDE WITH THE TIME THAT THE CYCLONE IS OVER
WATER WARMER THAN 26C. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN
INCREASED DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
RECENT STRENGTHENING...AND THEY ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST
SHOWN BY THE LGEM. WEAKENING SHOULD STILL BEGIN BY 72 HOURS...WITH
THE CYCLONE LIKELY DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 14.1N 105.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 15.0N 107.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 16.0N 110.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 16.7N 112.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 17.5N 114.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 19.0N 120.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 20.0N 125.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 20.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[brunota2003]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

RI forecast:
It appears that my indicator popped up around 11Z or 12Z (7 am to 8 am EDT). Given an offset of 4 to 6 hours, I'm expecting RI to begin most likely around 11 am to 2 pm. Based off of the 12Z BT intensity of 45 knots, a 30 knot increase in 24 hours (the basis for RI) would put Cosme at least at 75 knots by 12Z tomorrow morning.

Prediction: Cosme will be in the 75 to 85 knot range by tomorrow morning. If the RI burst occurs, Cosme may peak in the 85 to 95 knot range.

Pros:
Warm water
Decent conditions
Away from land

Cons:
Some wind shear is still in the area, according to the NHC
Systems don't always like conforming to predictions.

[Yellow Evan]

So, this morning I was expecting to wake up to a struggling tropical storm. Well, I was wrong! We have an intensifying TS. I think if this undergoes RI, MH status is not out of the picture.

Here is my forecast:
12hr 60 knt
24 hr 75 knt
36 hr 85 knt
48 hr 80 knt
72 hr 45 knt
96 hr 30 knt
120hr gone

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 50kts

EP, 03, 2013062418, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1065W, 50, 995, TS

[tolakram]

Lumbering into the GOES WEST view.

Live Visible java loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Latest

[cycloneye]

I find this place cool to see the ATCF updates. Look how large the circulation is.



http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013
200 PM PDT MON JUN 24 2013

...COSME CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 107.1W
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES




TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013
200 PM PDT MON JUN 24 2013

THE CENTER OF COSME IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE
AREA OF COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
CONVECTIVE BANDING NOW DEVELOPING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...AND THERE IS NOW A LITTLE MORE CURVATURE TO THE CONVECTIVE
BANDS NEAR THE CENTER ITSELF. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING
BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE
NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OBSERVED STRENGTHENING...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND
OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A MORE CONFIDENT 310/12...AS THE
CENTER HAS BEEN EASIER TO TRACK FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT...OR NORTH OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT ASIDE FROM THAT
THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
COSME IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. LATE IN THE PERIOD...AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES...COSME
IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST WHILE IT WEAKENS TO A REMNANT
LOW. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION
AND MOTION AND AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...THE NHC TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 15.0N 107.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 16.0N 108.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 17.0N 111.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 17.7N 113.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 18.3N 116.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 19.5N 121.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 20.5N 126.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 20.5N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Yellow Evan]

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY COSME WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM NEAR MANZANILLO THROUGH CABO
CORRIENTES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

[brunota2003]

Is anyone else having issues getting into the NRL page? I can't get it to load!

[cycloneye]

Is anyone else having issues getting into the NRL page? I can't get it to load!

Same issue here.

[zeehag]

these are a lot more fun to watch when they arent forming this close to neighborhoods i am residing in..here in barra de navidad, where my boat and i are , is stormy --on the edge of the huge width of this one. we are just now getting some wind, not much. and thunder. manzanillo is 20 miles south.
thankyou for allowing me to watch these with you.

[Kingarabian]

Can't load the NRL page as well.

Does anyone have access to the most recent microwave passes over Cosme?

[Yellow Evan]

these are a lot more fun to watch when they arent forming this close to neighborhoods i am residing in..here in barra de navidad, where my boat and i are , is stormy --on the edge of the huge width of this one. we are just now getting some wind, not much. and thunder. manzanillo is 20 miles south.
thankyou for allowing me to watch these with you.

I think you will be fine, despite the large size, this storm is quite offshore. I imagine you get thunderstorms all the time. Still, I hope you are safe and good luck riding out the thunderstorms.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.