WPAC: RUMBIA - Tropical Storm

[supercane4867]

[dexterlabio]

So it got renumbered. GFS, CMC and NAVGEM all showing this to develop. I expect Euro to show something when an actual depression has formed.

[dexterlabio]

The latest NAVGEM and GFS runs show this possible TC to be stronger than Bebinca. GFS shows it becoming pretty tight before hitting land.


I am surprised though that models are showing this 4 days before this phantom system is expected to make landfall.

[jaguarjace]

Starting to spin this early morning.

[dexterlabio]

18z GFS shows this system to peak at high-end TS strength before brushing the landmass (59 knots). I just knew how to read the track file texts on the NCEP Page. There is the latest 00z run but the text file is not uploaded yet. .still the same scenario being a threat to landmass...

Wow am I the only one surprised that models are showing this all of a sudden? I wonder how things will go for this disturbance...istill disorganized but of course it's a wait and see game again. .

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.4N 133.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH DISORGANIZED, YET PERSISTENT, DEEP
CONVECTION. A 262046Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED, AT
BEST, DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (~10 KNOTS) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 12 DEGREES
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

interestingly euro doesn't develop this at all...

[vrif]

Looking at the latest 0Z EC run, the wind forecast looks the same as previous runs but the accumulated precipitation has increased before it reaches the Phillipines. The long range track seems like it is creeping westwards towards HK with each model run.

Edit: EC has it intensifying in the SCS. Interesting.

[dexterlabio]

Actually Euro has already been showing a weak low pressure system with GFS in the area but keeps it very weak,not even a TD. This year though Euro seems to not handle TC genesis forecasting very well, but gets the intensity and track forecasts accurately when an actual TC has formed so I still call it efficient. We just have to wait and see if something will develop.



Edit- the recent ECMWF run is interesting...i think it's starting to get in line with the GFS, NAVGEM and CMC forecasts.

[RobWESTPACWX]

GFS is developing a strong storm by Saturday, here is a look at the GFS MODEL OUTPUT for Saturday night.



Today has really surprised me as well, this storm is quickly developing. This Evenings IR is rather impressive.



If you asked me yesterday I would say no to this storm, today though. hmmmmm I think we are going to be surprised more.

[dexterlabio]

^I was very surprised on the other hand. It was like 2 days ago when the models weren't showing any significant development.



How strong do you think this will get for now, Rob? I'm not sure if GFS is still showing a strong TS out of this, am not good at analyzing the charts.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

To be honest, i think this might be a Category 1 typhoon.

We did not even have a single typhoon this season. Sonamu was just a 95 km/h tropical storm.

[stormstrike]

yeah it's looking quite impressive right now..

[dexterlabio]

now expected to become a tropical storm within the next 24 hours- JMA



TD
Issued at 13:20 UTC, 27 June 2013

<Analyses at 27/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N9°30'(9.5°)
E130°50'(130.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 28/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°50'(11.8°)
E129°40'(129.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[dexterlabio]

oh and upgraded to MEDIUM by JTWC

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5N
133.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 131.0E, APPROXIMATELY 670 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME
MORE DEFINED AS A CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTH HAS BEGUN TO FORM AND
WRAP INTO THE LLCC. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 271106Z 37 GHZ SSMI/S
MICROWAVE PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
APPROXIMATELY 12 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS OPENED UP OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS, EXTRAPOLATED FROM
RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA, ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. IN VIEW OF THE
IMPROVING STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE AND THE ENHANCED OUTFLOW, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[mrbagyo]

I really hope this one recurve to open sea.
we're having a celebration on Sunday and rains might discourage our guests.

[RL3AO]

Worth watching. Its still June, but systems have a nasty habit of ramping up very quickly and running into the islands.

[RobWESTPACWX]

To be honest, i think this might be a Category 1 typhoon.

We did not even have a single typhoon this season. Sonamu was just a 95 km/h tropical storm.

Im thinking TS to STS likely, I woudlnt rule out anything stronger, main reason is this is already doing stuff we didnt expect.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5VkwfT00ri0[/youtube]

[mrbagyo]

forecast track from PAGASA

[dexterlabio]

it has to battle with the strong steering ridge to its north if it is to recurve. that would destroy itself if it does.