WPAC: RUMBIA - Tropical Storm

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Here's the ADT from CIMSS:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.4
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 JUN 2013 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 16:53:50 N Lon : 116:48:09 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 992.1mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.1 3.1

Center Temp : -68.9C Cloud Region Temp : -58.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 57km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.8 degrees

[vrif]

Current Warnings in the PRD area.


Current observed winds at 26UTC. The closest location is at blowing 16.4 m/s.


Edit:
Rumbia is looking good

[vrif]

Latest ASCAT-B 301347Z showing the strong winds on the right portion of Rumbia.

[vrif]

Latest OSCAT 301542Z

[vrif]

WDPN31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (RUMBIA) WARNING
NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 374 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING (TCB) OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE
NORTH QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 301213Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THE
IMPROVED TCB ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE CORRESPONDING 37 GHZ IMAGE AS WELL AS A
301008Z 37 GHZ WINDSAT IMAGE DEPICT A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH
LENDS GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT MOTION. THE
RECENT CONSOLIDATION IS LIKELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
OVERALL, THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
THE WEAK VWS, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND WARM SST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TS 06W IS
TRACKING QUICKLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 06W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 50 NM
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24, JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ADDITIONALLY,
THE DYNAMIC MODELS (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JENS) NOW SUPPORT A
POLEWARD TURN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
STR AFTER TAU 36. THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS ALSO
STABILIZED AND SHOWS AGREEMENT ON A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS
AROUND TAU 24. THE MESOSCALE MODELS, GFDN AND HWRF, ARE THE PRIMARY
OUTLIERS AND PEAK THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT 60 TO 65 KNOTS. THE
JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT IN BOTH TRACK AND PEAK INTENSITY
(55 KNOTS), FAVORING THE STIPS GUIDANCE, WHICH INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING (STRONG) VWS AS IT TRACKS
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS NORTHERLY VWS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA AND THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA
SEA. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 30, TS 06W SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY
DUE TO VWS AND LAND INTERACTION AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 48.
OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Storm Rumbia is just refusing to strengthen, dose anyone know why?

[Hurricaneman]

vertical shear is being disruptive to the circulation keeping it in check

[vrif]

Here is the latest TRMM pass

[vrif]

I see an eye wall and eye.

[mrbagyo]

RUMBIA is a legit TYPHOON for sure !!


i'm excited how different agency will assess its strength.
IMO, cat 2 to low end cat 3

[mrbagyo]

[vrif]

CMA and HKO upgraded Rumbia to a STS from a TS earlier (using their own grading system). My guess JTWC might only upgrade it to a CAT1. Not quite sure if JMA will increase it to a Typhoon, but perhaps a STS. We will see in the coming hours.

All the warnings in the PRD region.

[vrif]

That is one nice looking eye wall.

[mrbagyo]

Not quite sure if JMA will increase it to a Typhoon, but perhaps a STS. We will see in the coming hours.

just a severe tropical storm for JMA

STS 1306 (RUMBIA)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 1 July 2013

<Analyses at 01/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N19°00'(19.0°)
E112°35'(112.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E330km(180NM)
W280km(150NM)

[RobWESTPACWX]

Nice imagery of the eye, that one of the radar is really impressive, looks like its starting to fill now though, it was really short lived.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Not quite sure if JMA will increase it to a Typhoon, but perhaps a STS. We will see in the coming hours.

just a severe tropical storm for JMA

STS 1306 (RUMBIA)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 1 July 2013

<Analyses at 01/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N19°00'(19.0°)
E112°35'(112.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E330km(180NM)
W280km(150NM)

I personally think they will keep it STS, politics mostly. They dont want have it explode to a TY in a few hours and drop from 985hpa to 970hpa. But hey you never know!

[mrbagyo]

Nice imagery of the eye, that one of the radar is really impressive, looks like its starting to fill now though, it was really short lived.

yeah , it's filling up, maybe because of the increasing VWS

[vrif]

Nice imagery of the eye, that one of the radar is really impressive, looks like its starting to fill now though, it was really short lived.

yeah , it's filling up, maybe because of the increasing VWS

Strong VWS ahead of it

[vrif]

OSCAT 0701 0358Z
4 hours ago.

[dexterlabio]

I thought it was gonna pull off a Vicente before hitting China. Oh well the eyewall filled in quickly, just like Leepi weeks ago. At least it was kinda close to be called a typhoon. And it also developed a CDO which was an improvement compared to the previous sheared tropical storms we had. It seems that the favorable conditions across WPAC and SCS are coming in a bit late.