WPAC: RUMBIA - Tropical Storm

[stormstrike]

Stormstrike, may I ask for the link of that NOAA FLOATER?

Here:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 9.7N 128.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7N 128.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 11.0N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 12.4N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 14.2N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 15.7N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 19.3N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 23.1N 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 25.6N 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 128.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 280600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND
290900Z. //
NNNN

[oaba09]

Now a tropical storm per JMA

TS 1306 (RUMBIA)
Issued at 13:15 UTC, 28 June 2013

<Analyses at 28/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°20'(10.3°)
E128°00'(128.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 29/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°50'(11.8°)
E126°20'(126.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 29/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°30'(13.5°)
E124°30'(124.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

<Forecast for 30/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°00'(17.0°)
E119°50'(119.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 01/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N20°00'(20.0°)
E115°00'(115.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)

[jaguarjace]

Hey Rob, you should bookmark these links for future use in your videos if you wish
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-epac.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

Courtesy of NOAA's Satellite Services Division

[RobWESTPACWX]

Thanks for the links! I appreciate it!

Here is my latest video though; Now a TS as we all know! Looking at a big flood threat in Manila as well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ymxtx6RzGuQ

[vrif]

So, JMA upgraded this to a TS earlier, but JTWC still keeps it as a TD

WDPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING
NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 452 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A BROAD, CONSOLIDATING, LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS FRAGMENTED
BUT HAS DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM AGENCY FIXES WITH
POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE RJTD DVORAK
ESTIMATE AND FROM RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TD 06W IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER,
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED
BY A WEAK TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), AT 28-30
DEGREES CELSIUS, ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TD 06W WILL TRACK ALONG THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF THE STR
THROUGHOUT ITS LIFESPAN. IT WILL SOON MAKE LANDFALL OVER SAMAR,
PHILIPPINES AROUND TAU 12, DRAG ACROSS THE ARCHIPELAGO BEFORE EXITING
INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) NEAR LINGAYEN GULF AROUND TAU 42. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE LANDFALL THEN WEAKEN
AS IT TRACKS OVER THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. IT WILL RESUME MODEST
INTENSIFICATION IN THE SCS DUE TO THE WARM SSTS, PEAKING AT 50 KNOTS
BY TAU 72, TEMPERED ONLY BY INCREASING VWS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 06W WILL MAKE A FINAL LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG
AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR, DISSIPATING INLAND BY END
OF FORECAST. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH MINOR
SPREADING TOWARDS THE END OF FORECAST. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE WELL-ESTABLISHED TRACKING MECHANISM. //
NNNN


WTPQ20 RJTD 281500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1306 RUMBIA (1306)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281500UTC 10.4N 127.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 291500UTC 14.0N 123.9E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 301200UTC 17.0N 119.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 011200UTC 20.0N 115.0E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

[vrif]

Latest OSCAT 281540Z. The northern portion looks better than 12 hours ago.

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 11.4N 126.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N 126.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 13.0N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 14.6N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 16.3N 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.1N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 21.4N 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 23.6N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 26.0N 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 125.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 369 NM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
281800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND
292100Z.//
NNNN

[vrif]

Looking at the last 3 model runs for the EC EPS, it has been forecasting the track for Rumbia very similarly. With a slight shift to the west in the latest 12Z run.

[dexterlabio]

is it just me or the storm really looks healthy on visible sat loops? it has moved inland but i just noticed that the core has become more round and the inflow to its north looks good as well.

[vrif]

is it just me or the storm really looks healthy on visible sat loops? it has moved inland but i just noticed that the core has become more round and the inflow to its north looks good as well.

I agree, it does look healthy. Especially from these images.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Count me in as agreeing it looks very nice considering it's made "landfall." That's a very impressive band on the west and south sides!

[dexterlabio]

I wonder if it's because of the contracting wind field as it tracks across the island. It seems the center didn't pass through the mountainous areas of Samar. .plus the really warm waters around the circulation and the relatively low shear along the way... This is actually the perfect timing to develop a CDO if it tracks over water again.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Steering wind analysis


-The storm may turn WNW then West.

Wind shear


-The wind shear is low enough for the storm to intensify.

Sea surface temperatures


-The waters around the Philippines and the rest of the West Pacific are very warm.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Possible peak intensity: Severe Tropical Storm (around 100 km/h)

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 12.0N 125.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 125.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 13.5N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 15.3N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 17.1N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.9N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 23.1N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.0N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 124.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301 NM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 290000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z
AND 300300Z.//
NNNN


PROGNOSTIC REASONING


WDPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301 NM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
MOVED OVER SAMAR ISLAND, PHILIPPINES AND HAS BECOME MARGINALLY LESS
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. PREDOMINANTLY, THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF
THE SYSTEM, SUPPORTED BY POSSIBLE OROGRAPHIC LIFTING OVER THE
ISLANDS. THE CURRENT POSITION HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY BUT
IS SUPPORTED BY A POSITION FIX FROM PGTW AND A 282333Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
PASS. INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 35 KNOTS BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE LLCC HAS BEEN TRACKING
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) ARE VERY FAVORABLE AT 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A DECAYING TUTT CELL LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND ELONGATE.
THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE
SEPARATION OF THE TUTT CELL AND THE LLCC INCREASES. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS IN
PHASE WITH THE DEEP EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 06W WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR,
TRACKING THROUGH THE PHILIPPINES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) AND
EVENTUALLY INTO MAINLAND CHINA SLIGHTLY BEFORE TAU 72. THE CURRENT
FORECAST INDICATES A STEADY INTENSITY TREND OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE PHILIPPINES. A RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE
LLCC IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT (GOOD SSTS) OF THE SCS, WITH INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SECOND LANDFALL INTO CHINA. A MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WILL HINDER RAPID DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE SYSTEM IS STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH STRONG TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 06W IS FORECAST TO BE OVER MAINLAND CHINA,
JUST TO THE WEST OF HONG KONG. INCREASING VWS AND THE FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH LAND WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, WITH FULL
DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 96. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, BUT INDICATES SOME VARIATION AFTER
LANDFALL. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF CONSENSUS AT TAUS
72 AND 96 TO ACCOUNT FOR A SHIFT IN STEERING INFLUENCE FROM MID- TO
LOW-LEVELS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO
THE WELL-ESTABLISHED TRACKING MECHANISM.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Looking very impressive, except that the cloud tops aren't very cold.

[euro6208]

it is quite organized for a system that's making landfall. OHC along the track gets even more favorable...

[dexterlabio]

now up to 40 kts according to NRL page...

[oaba09]

I hope our government is prepared for this one...
The forecasting agencies are quite confident in the models so far so I don't see this system deviating too much...Right now, it looks like it's heading straight for southern Luzon....

Here's a multi agency forecast image courtesy of typhoon 2000