WPAC: RUMBIA - Tropical Storm

[oaba09]

latest track from JMA:

[vrif]

Latest OSCAT 290400Z pass. Not a whole lot to see, but it is windy over the water.

[ManilaTC]

This radar image could show that the center is past Sorsogon Peninsula already.

[stormstrike]

it intensified a bit when it made landfall..

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If it slows down in the SCS, it may become a category 1 typhoon.

[mrbagyo]

Rumbia's path reminds me of Xangsane 2006( though Rumbia is much weaker)
seems like a Samar landfall does not affect a TC's strength too much
Xangsane also improved its structure after a Samar landfall. maybe because of lack of mountainous terrain in that area...heck even it is over Bicol peninsula..
here is the microwave of xangsane of 2006 while traversing Samar and Bicol
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2006_18W/webManager/displayGifsBy12hr_03.html

[euro6208]

May god bless everyone in this storm's path and to those already affected. Know that you are in our thoughts and prayers.

[stormstrike]

it looks fragmented in PAGASA's satellite pics.. but it looks good here..




latest Microwave imagery

[mrbagyo]

rainfall rate at Calbayog, Samar...

- from Project NOAH

[dexterlabio]

Getting breezy here in Katipunan, Quezon City. Rain is pouring... I'm inclined to stay up just to see how strong the winds can get. Thank goodness this is not a typhoon.

[oaba09]

Pagasa's doppler radar(subic)



Sent from my iPad mini using Tapatalk

[mrbagyo]

tropical storm force wind here in Tagaytay city along with heavy rainfall.
this storm is spoiling our celebration.

It almost directly hit us according to PAGASA.

JMA also pass it in Batangas..

[mrbagyo]

WTPN31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 14.2N 121.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 121.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 16.1N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.0N 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 19.8N 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 21.7N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 26.3N 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 120.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM
SOUTHEASTWARD OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.
//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM
SOUTHEASTWARD OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY, WHICH IS OVER OPEN WATER, AND FRAGMENTED DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND THE INLAND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
291736Z AMSU IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING (TCB) AND A
DEFINED CENTER. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED EIR AND AMSU IMAGERY, IN ADDITION TO
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM SUBIC STATION. THERE ARE NO DVORAK
ESTIMATES AVAILABLE AS THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE OVERALL
ORGANIZATION NOTED IN THE RECENT AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE 292000Z
SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM MANILA IS 14 KNOTS FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
TS 06W IS TRACKING QUICKLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR OUTFLOW, PARTICULARLY IN THE
EQUATORWARD DIRECTION. AN EARLIER TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM HAS SINCE DEVOLVED INTO A COL REGION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) IS LOW (05-10 KTS). AS THE SYSTEM RE-EMERGES OVER OPEN WATER,
VERY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A POOL OF HIGH OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT LIE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 06W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE LEFT-MOST OUTLIER (GFDN), DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN SOLID AGREEMENT THROUGH LANDFALL (SHORTLY AFTER
TAU 48), WITH AN APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT THAT
TIME. AFTER TAU 48, THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE TURN NORTHWARD. NAVGEM AND GFDN
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD VICE RE-CURVE, WITH NAVGEM FIELDS
SUGGESTING THIS MODEL IS OVER-BUILDING THE STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF
THE STR INTO CENTRAL CHINA. THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE
INDICATES A WEAKNESS IN THE STR WILL ALLOW TS 06W TO CONTINUE
TRACKING ALONG ITS NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. TS 06W IS FORECAST TO
QUICKLY INTENSIFY AFTER THE LLCC ENTERS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND
SHOULD REACH A PEAK INTENSITY 55 KNOTS AROUND TAU 36, AT WHICH POINT
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF NORTHERLY VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-
LEVEL STR OVER EASTERN CHINA WILL SERVE TO HINDER FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AFTER TAU 48
APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, AND IS EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND VWS. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AFTER TAU 48 BUT GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE LANDFALL POSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. OVERALL,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[vrif]

Rumbia looks good, as it enters the SCS.

[Hurricaneman]

This may have a chance to become a typhoon before it hits China based on what I'm seeing in the models

[vrif]

JMA is expecting it to further move west.

[vrif]

It looks like we know where the center is for sure.


Saved 3 hrs of radar loop of Rumbia saying goodbye to the Philippines.

[euro6208]

eye developing?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Eye developing and looks good! There will be a 70% probability that this will be a typhoon.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It seems like the Rumbia is intensifying very fast! The bad news is that it may hit China as a typhoon.

HERE ARE THE LATEST INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGES:



I hope that those people to be affected by this storm will be safe.