EPAC: DALILA - Post-Tropical

[SouthDadeFish]

Looking very good. Latest TRMM pass was impressive. The possibility of reaching hurricane strength appears quite likely to me and I wouldn't rule out the possibility of RI. All she would have to do is hit 70 knots by 09Z. I think she can.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
200 PM PDT MON JUL 01 2013

THE INNER CORE OF DALILA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...
AND UW-CIMSS HAVE CONVERGED TO A CONSENSUS T-NUMBER OF 3.5...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 55 KT. ALTHOUGH DALILA IS
LOCATED IN A SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...A
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF
THE STORM WHICH SUGGESTS THAT DRY AIR MAY BE ENTRAINING INTO THE
CIRCULATION. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW FORECASTS DALILA TO
BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE SPREAD
AMONG THE MODELS IS HIGH...ESPECIALLY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE DRY
AIR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE
TO WEAKEN IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
NOT CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND NOW LIES
VERY NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST.

THE CENTER OF DALILA HAS BEEN OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE. MICROWAVE-BASED CENTER FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE HAS
BEGUN TO TURN AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
IS 295/6. WHILE THE REASONING BEHIND THE TRACK FORECAST IS
UNCHANGED...THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY HIGH. THE
ECMWF FORECASTS A NEARLY DUE SOUTH TRACK...WHILE THE GFS FORECASTS
A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 120 HOURS. THESE DISCREPANCIES
APPEAR TO BE RELATED TO THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE
VORTEX. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH
HAS A STRONGER VORTEX...MORE IN LINE WITH THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO VERY HIGH.

SINCE DALILA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE AWAY FROM MEXICO...THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE COAST OF THAT COUNTRY HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED. HOWEVER...THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO
THROUGH TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 17.9N 106.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 18.2N 107.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 18.4N 107.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 18.5N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 18.5N 109.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 18.5N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 18.5N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well, I haven't been paying attention much, more local concerns to deal with But it looks like a weaker version of my RI indicator did possibly pop up this morning, around 07 UTC (3 am EDT). That would have put the beginning of RI around 9 am to 12 pm EDT. The 09 UTC NHC forecast had Dalila at 40 knots, which means for it to hit RI, it has to reach 70 knots by 09 UTC tonight, as noted above.

I'm going to go with a 30 knot to 35 knot increase, so 70 to 75 knots by 09 UTC, with a peak in the 75 to 85 knot range, if RI does occur.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

[brunota2003]

It definitely looked like an eye was trying to pop out earlier on the RBTop loops.

[Kingarabian]

Hey there Delilah
Don't you worry about the distance
I'm right there if you get lonely
Give this song another listen
Close your eyes
Listen to my voice, it's my disguise
I'm by your side

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
800 PM PDT MON JUL 01 2013

...DALILA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 106.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES



TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
800 PM PDT MON JUL 01 2013

THE CONVECTIVE BANDING PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DALILA HAS GRADUALLY
MORPHED INTO A SMALL CDO FEATURE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH CLOUD
TOPS OF -80C AND COLDER ALMOST COMPLETELY ENCIRCLING THE CENTER. A
01/1801 UTC TRMM OVERPASS THAT CAME IN AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
ALSO REVEALED A CLOSED 10-15 NMI DIAMETER MID-LEVEL EYE. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB REMAIN AT T3.5/55 KT...BUT THE DATA-T
NUMBER FROM TAFB WAS 4.0/65 KT. A RECENT CIRA INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
62 KT...ALONG WITH THE TRMM MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE...JUSTIFIES
INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 60 KT. ALTHOUGH DALILA HAS BEEN
INCREASING AT THE RATE OF ONE T-NUMBER PER DAY OR 20 KT EVERY 24
HOURS...THAT INTENSIFICATION TREND IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH
LONGER. THE VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS DALILA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
MODEST AT 12-15 KT FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
OFFSET THE FAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS OF 27-28C SSTS. NOW THAT
DALILA HAS SLOWED DOWN MARKEDLY...COLD UPWELLING BENEATH THE
CYCLONE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME A FACTOR SINCE UPPER-OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT VALUES ARE QUITE LOW AT ONLY 3-5 UNITS. EVEN THOUGH THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 5 KT OR SO AFTER 24 HOURS...COOLER
WATERS AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ARE EXPECTED TO HINDER THE
DEVELOPMENT PROCESS. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND
FSSE INTENSITY MODELS.

VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT DALILA HAS SLOWED
DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS EXPECTED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
NOW 290/05 KT. THE EXTENSIVE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DALILA
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD AND
KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION. BY 48
HOURS...HOWEVER...THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THAT A
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION COULD OCCUR DUE TO SOME BINARY INTERACTION
WITH THE DEVELOPING LARGE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE EAST
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AND INFLUENCE BY THE LATTER FEATURE...BOTH THE
REASONING AND THE FORECAST TRACK REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 18.2N 106.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 18.3N 107.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 18.4N 108.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 18.4N 108.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 18.3N 109.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 18.3N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 18.4N 112.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 18.5N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Yellow Evan]

Dalila will be a hurricane in 6 to 12 hours in my opinion.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The inner core of Tropical Storm Dalila has completely collapsed. It needs to organize quickly if it wants to become a hurricane.

[Kingarabian]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 020840
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 02 2013

MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY BETWEEN 0000-0400 UTC INDICATES THAT
DALILA HAS LOST ORGANIZATION...POSSIBLY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
THE CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE CENTER HAS DECREASED...WITH THE
CENTER NOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 KT...AND USING THIS
ALONG WITH THE DECREASED ORGANIZATION THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 55 KT.

THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS SOUTHEAST OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...WHICH REQUIRES A RE-LOCATION FOR THIS
ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 270/4. DALILA
IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENT BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
ITS NORTH...AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO ITS EAST...AND A LARGE
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO ITS SOUTHEAST. THE LATTER DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD DALILA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD...MAKING THIS A
LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE NAVGEM...GFDL...AND GFDN FORECAST THE
STORM TO MOVED NORTHWESTWARD WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE ECMWF
AND UKMET FORECAST A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION DUE TO INTERACTION WITH
THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. THE GFS AND THE HWRF FORECAST A SLOW
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION...AND THIS IS THE BASIS FOR
THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF AND
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT LOCATION AND
MOTION.

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK COMPLICATES THE INTENSITY FORECAST. ON ONE
SIDE...THE SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE
OVER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ON
THE OTHER SIDE...THE ECMWF..UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL
FORECAST DALILA TO DISSIPATE BEFORE 120 HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH THE DISTURBANCE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN
THESE POSSIBILITIES...SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR 36-48
HOURS FOLLWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE NEW DISTURBANCE GETS
CLOSER. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 17.7N 106.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 17.7N 107.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 17.7N 107.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 17.5N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 17.2N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 17.0N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 17.0N 112.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 17.0N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Extratropical94]

Hey there Delilah
Don't you worry about the distance
I'm right there if you get lonely
Give this song another listen
Close your eyes
Listen to my voice, it's my disguise
I'm by your side

Made my day!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 02 2013

THE CENTER OF DALILA IS HIDDEN BENEATH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND
HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. A 0319
UTC SSM/I IMAGE SHOWED THAT THE CENTER WAS DISPLACED NEARLY HALF A
DEGREE SOUTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION...HOWEVER NO MICROWAVE
IMAGES OF THE CENTER HAVE BEEN AVAILABLE SINCE THAT TIME. THE
INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 270/2. A SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS DALILA REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE
GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IS BUILDING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OF
DALILA. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN SLOWLY
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE SPREAD AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
REMAINS HIGH AFTER 48 HOURS. THE ECMWF FORECASTS THAT A LAYER OF
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN DALILA...AND THE
LOW-LEVEL REMNANTS WILL MOVE ALMOST DUE SOUTH. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE GFS FORECASTS THAT THE DRY AIR WILL NOT ENTRAIN INTO THE
CENTER OF DALILA...AND A DEEPER VORTEX WILL TRACK WESTWARD AFTER 48
HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...THAT CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
PROCESSES ARE ARTIFICIALLY MOISTENING THE NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT IN
THE GFS. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD...A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FORECAST...AND IS ROUGHLY
A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT...BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB. MOST OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DALILA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO CONTINUED MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR.
MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE ENTRAINMENT OF
DRY AIR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...AND NOW CALLS FOR DALILA
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 120 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 17.7N 106.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 17.6N 107.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 17.4N 107.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 17.2N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 17.0N 109.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 16.7N 110.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 16.5N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 16.5N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY

[Yellow Evan]

I don't this will be a hurricane after all.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

We've not seen the last of it yet..

[CrazyC83]

Hurricane Dalila now! Special advisory issued.

ZCZC MIATCMEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE DALILA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
1800 UTC TUE JUL 02 2013

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 107.1W AT 02/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 107.1W AT 02/1800Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 106.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.2N 107.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.0N 107.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.8N 108.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.6N 109.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.0N 110.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 16.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 107.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY


NNNN

[CrazyC83]

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 021803
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DALILA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 02 2013

...DALILA NOW A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 107.1W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DALILA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST. DALILA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A SLOW
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
WITHIN A DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY DALILA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM NEAR ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO
CORRIENTES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DALILA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 02 2013

THIS IS A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO REVISE THE INTENSITY OF DALILA. A
COUPLE OF MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATED A LOW-LEVEL EYE...AND A FAINT
EYE IS SEEN IN HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. BASED ON
THESE IMAGES...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE. BASED ON THE
NUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE...NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING IN A DAY OR SO
AS IT INTERACTS WITH DRIER AIR AND THE DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION TO ITS EAST.

THE CENTER POSITION IS SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED TRACK...SO THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD A
LITTLE. OTHERWISE THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST
REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1800Z 18.3N 107.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 18.2N 107.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 18.0N 107.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 17.8N 108.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 17.6N 109.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 17.0N 110.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 16.5N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 16.5N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY

[Kingarabian]

LOL WOW. Went from "Dalila...we don't know what's going to happen...may have peaked" to "Dalila now a Hurricane"

Congratulations!

Anyways I think the NHC kinda jumped the gun there when they said no further strengthening anticipated. What if it's just starting an RI episode? What's stopping it from becoming stronger in the short term?

[brunota2003]

That's a bit of a bizarre special advisory. Oh if only we could have recon out there...

[cycloneye]

That's a bit of a bizarre special advisory. Oh if only we could have recon out there...

There was one for today but was canceled two days ago.