EPAC: DALILA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Sure weakening fast.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
800 PM PDT WED JUL 03 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS REVEALS THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN OF DALILA IS DETERIORATING FAST. AN SSMI/S MICROWAVE
PASS...AROUND 0000 UTC...SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
REMOVED FROM A SHRINKING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE...
LATEST AVAILABLE SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS COULD BE
LOWER THAN INDICATED. HOWEVER...SINCE I INHERITED A 60-KNOT
STORM...I WOULD RATHER LOWER THE WINDS GRADUALLY...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT DRY AND STABLE AIR IS
ALREADY AFFECTING THE CIRCULATION...AND THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS
INCREASING SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL
WEAKENING...BUT THIS PROCESS COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN FORECAST.

DALILA HAS BARELY MOVED DURING THE DAY...TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF A
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE
ON A SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 17.6N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 17.5N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 17.4N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 17.5N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 17.6N 112.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 18.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 18.5N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0000Z 19.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Extratropical94]

12Z BT: EP, 04, 2013070412, , BEST, 0, 173N, 1095W, 40, 1000, TS

TROPICAL STORM DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
200 AM PDT THU JUL 04 2013

...DALILA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 108.9W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
200 AM PDT THU JUL 04 2013

DALILA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO ONGOING MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...WITH THE
CENTER NOW ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION. BASED
MAINLY ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO AN UNCERTAIN 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 265/4. A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD STEER DALILA GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO...THAT DALILA OR ITS REMNANTS COULD
INTERACT WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. SHOULD THIS INTERACTION OCCUR...DALILA COULD MOVE MORE
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THE CURRENT SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...CAUSING DALILA TO STEADILY WEAKEN. IN
ADDITION...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AFTER 48 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
DALILA TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND
TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT BOTH OF THESE EVENTS COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 17.5N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 17.4N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 17.4N 110.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 17.5N 111.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 17.9N 113.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 18.5N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/0600Z 19.0N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/0600Z 19.0N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
800 AM PDT THU JUL 04 2013

DRY AIR AND EASTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON DALILA AS THE DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM HAS DIMINISHED VERY QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
35 KT WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST T-NUMBERS AND EARLIER
OSCAT DATA. ALTHOUGH DALILA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER MARGINALLY
WARM SSTS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THE DRY AIR AND SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. DALILA IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER IF
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP.

DALILA APPEARS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST OR 265
DEGREES AT 6 KT. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
IS FORECAST AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE
SHIFTS EASTWARD. LATER IN THE PERIOD...SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT DALILA OR ITS REMNANTS COULD INTERACT WITH THE NEW
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST. BECAUSE OF THIS POSSIBILITY...
THE TRACK DURING THE POST-TROPICAL PHASE IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 17.4N 109.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 17.3N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 17.4N 111.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 17.7N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1200Z 18.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1200Z 18.5N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1200Z 18.8N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Yellow Evan]

Dalila is toast IMO.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
200 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013

ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON...DALILA BARELY QUALIFIES
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 35 KT
AND IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT ASCAT DATA AND A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS
DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS. DRY AIR AND MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN EVEN
THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN OVER SSTS OF 26 TO 27 DEGREES CELSIUS FOR
ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO. DALIA IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER.

DALILA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT. A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE HINTS AT MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN DALIA AND
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO ITS SOUTHEAST. THIS IS LIKELY TO
CAUSE THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DECELERATE IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ONCE AGAIN SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 17.3N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 17.3N 111.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 17.5N 112.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/0600Z 17.8N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1800Z 18.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1800Z 18.3N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1800Z 18.3N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Yellow Evan]

I am mostly sure the 03z adv will be its last.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track downgrades to Tropical Depression.

EP, 04, 2013070500, , BEST, 0, 173N, 1107W, 25, 1006, TD

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
800 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013

DALILA CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW
INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION. GIVEN THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION AND EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO
AREAS OF CONVECTION.

DALILA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH SHEAR
AND STABLE AIR...AND MOST LIKELY THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME A REMANT
LOW IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF A FEW MORE
ROUNDS OF DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER...AS DALILA
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND BEFORE
THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 17.3N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 17.5N 111.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/0000Z 17.7N 112.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1200Z 17.8N 113.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0000Z 18.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Extratropical94]

...DALILA REMAINS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 111.6W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES



TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013

DALILA STUBBORNLY PERSISTS IN MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION...THOUGH
IN A LIMITED AREA...DESPITE THE 12-15 KT SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR AND MINIMAL 27C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A PERFECTLY PLACED
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0424Z INDICATED ABOUT 30 KT PEAK WINDS
FOR THE SYSTEM...MATCHING A BLEND OF THE TAFB AND SAB SUBJECTIVE
CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES. DALILA MAY HAVE ABOUT ANOTHER 12-18
HOURS OR SO AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE THE OUTFLOW OF TROPICAL
STORM ERICK...DRY STABLE AIR...AND COOLER SSTS CAUSE THE CONVECTION
TO CEASE FOR GOOD. AFTERWARDS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE AS A
REMNANT LOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. THE FORECAST MAINTAINS DALILA
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE SLIGHTLY LONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE ASCAT PASS ALSO PROVIDED FOR A CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE
POSITION AND INITIAL MOTION OF DALILA...WHICH IS WEST AT 7 KT. THE
CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BUT AT A SLOWER RATE
OF SPEED...PRIMARILY BY A WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT REMAINS
NORTH OF DALILA. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED UPON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 17.2N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 17.3N 112.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 17.3N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1800Z 17.3N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0600Z 17.1N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

[cycloneye]

TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013

DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED AND INCREASED IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.8/41 KT...
T2.5/35 KT...AND T1.0/25 KT FROM UW-CIMSS ADT...TAFB...AND SAB...
RESPECTIVELY. ALTHOUGH DALILA CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A SHEARED
TROPICAL STORM...THE CYCLONE IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A 30-KT
DEPRESSION SINCE THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD IS JUST NOW
ENDING AND THE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD BE TEMPORARY.
HOWEVER...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER WINDS EXISTING
WEST OF THE CENTER...THE GUST DIFFERENTIAL HAS BEEN INCREASED FROM
THE USUAL 40 KT TO 45 KT IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY PRODUCT.
REGARDLESS OF THE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...DALILA DOES NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH OF A FUTURE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE DUE TO
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING CREATED BY THE
OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM ERICK...WHICH IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 NMI
TO THE EAST. AS ERICK CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE CLOSER TO
DALILA...ITS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE AND INDUCE EVEN
GREATER SHEAR...WHICH WILL ACT TO HASTEN THE DEMISE OF DALILA
WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODELS ICON AND IVCN.

EARLIER ASCAT PASSES AND NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT
DALILA HAS SLOWED DOWN MARKEDLY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS NOW 265/03 KT. AS DALILA UNDERGOES SOME BINARY INTERACTION WITH
ERICK TO ITS EAST AND ENCOUNTERS A STRENGTHENING MID-/UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE TO ITS WEST AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD REMAIN TRAPPED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW REGIME AND ONLY DRIFT
SLOWLY WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 17.1N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 17.1N 112.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 17.1N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/0000Z 17.0N 113.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1200Z 16.9N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013

AFTER AN EARLIER BURST OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS WANED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A
1654Z ASCAT-A OVERPASS INDICATED A FEW 26-KT WIND VECTORS JUST WEST
OF THE CENTER WHEN AT LEAST SOME MODEST CONVECTION WAS STILL
PRESENT. GIVEN THE WORSENING APPEARANCE IN RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND THE FACT THAT THE CENTER IS NOW FULLY EXPOSED...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE ANOTHER BRIEF BURST OF CONVECTION
TONIGHT...THE GENERAL TREND CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS DUE TO SHARPLY INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR CREATED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM
ERICK LOCATED TO THE EAST. DALILA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW BY 24 HOURS...AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATE IN 48-72 HOURS. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE
THE CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODELS ICON AND IVCN.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/03 KT. NOW THAT THE LOW- AND
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE DECOUPLED...DALILA SHOULD BE
INFLUENCED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM
ERICK. AS ERICK DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CYCLONE...DALILA COULD TURN
MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS. BY THAT TIME...HOWEVER...DALILA
WILL NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS CLOSE
TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 17.1N 112.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 17.1N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/0600Z 16.9N 113.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1800Z 16.9N 114.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013

DALILA NOW CONSISTS OF A SMALL...BUT WELL-DEFINED...SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS AS SEEN IN THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES FROM THE GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE. SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DISSIPATED SINCE
ABOUT 18Z WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING. BECAUSE OF
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR INDUCED BY TROPICAL STORM ERICK AND A
COOLER MORE STABLE AIRMASS...LONG-LASTING DEEP CONVECTION IN DALILA
IS NOT LIKELY TO MAKE A COMEBACK. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW SHORTLY AND THEN GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

DALILA IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST...AS THE EASTERLY
STEERING FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE IS QUITE WEAK. THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
BASED UPON THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE AND IS JUST NORTH OF THE TRACK
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 17.1N 112.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 17.1N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/0000Z 17.1N 113.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/1200Z 17.1N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0000Z 17.2N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0000Z 17.5N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

[jaguarjace]

Dalila's still hanging on as a Tropical Depression.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013

STUBBORNLY...DALILA REFUSES TO FADE. THIS EVENING...PERHAPS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE
MAXIMUM...DEEP CONVECTION HAS RETURNED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE. THUS THE ANTICIPATED DEGENERATION OF DALILA INTO A REMNANT
LOW IS DELAYED...TEMPORARILY. BECAUSE OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR
INDUCED BY TROPICAL STORM ERICK AND A COOLER MORE STABLE
AIRMASS...THIS REFOUND CONVECTION IN DALILA SHOULD NOT BE
LONG-LASTING. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW
SHORTLY AND THEN GRADUALLY WIND DOWN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS.

DALILA IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST...AS THE EASTERLY
STEERING FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE HAS NEARLY COLLAPSED. EITHER
A CONTINUED VERY SLOW WESTWARD MOVEMENT OR ERRATIC MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
BASED UPON THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 17.0N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 17.0N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/0600Z 17.0N 113.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0600Z 17.1N 113.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0600Z 17.5N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013

FINALLY...THE ROLES HAVE BEEN REVERSED...DALILA GETS SHEARED. THERE
IS VERY LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINING WITH THE CYCLONE...AND WHAT
CONVECTION THAT DOES EXIST IS RATHER SHALLOW AND LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. AN EARLIER OSCAT PASS AT 0728 UTC INDICATED
UNFLAGGED WINDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION NEAR 25 KT...AND THAT IS THE
INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. INCREASING SHEAR CAUSED BY THE
OUTFLOW FROM NOW HURRICANE ERICK LOCATED ABOUT 500 NMI TO THE EAST
OF DALILA...WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN DALILA BECOMING A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE
AREA LATER TODAY.

DALILA HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND
LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED NOW THAT DALILA HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM
WILL BE THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE ERICK...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE DALILA AND ITS REMNANT CIRCULATION TO MEANDER IN
THE SAME GENERAL AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF ERICK AS IT
PASSES TO THE NORTH OF DALILA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODEL TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 17.0N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 17.0N 113.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/1200Z 17.0N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/0000Z 17.0N 113.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/1200Z 17.0N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/1200Z 17.6N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Depression Dalila

[Yellow Evan]

I think Dallia won't last much longer tbh.

[cycloneye]

Still hanging around.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013

DALILA IS ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A REMNANT LOW. THERE IS A SMALL
BURST OF CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS
BARELY ORGANIZED. IN FACT...THE WIND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH DALILA
HAVE EITHER BEEN STEADY OR GRADUALLY COMING DOWN DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS. THIS TREND SUGGESTS THAT THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED...AND ARE MORE LIKE RANDOM PUFFS OF
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS CHARACTERISTIC OF A REMNANT LOW. IF THE
CONVECTION DOES NOT SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE...DALILA IS LIKELY TO BE
DECLARED A REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING. THE INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT...
AND A GRADUAL SPINDOWN IS PROBABLE GIVEN INCREASING SHEAR FROM
HURRICANE ERICK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS
BEFORE.

VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS STATIONARY. DALILA SHOULD
BEGIN TO BE DRAWN EASTWARD THEN NORTHWARD INTO THE CIRCULATION OF
THE MUCH LARGER ERICK DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SHIFTED EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL A BIT
EAST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 17.0N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 17.0N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/1800Z 17.1N 112.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/0600Z 17.3N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/1800Z 17.8N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

Still hanging around.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013

DALILA IS ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A REMNANT LOW. THERE IS A SMALL
BURST OF CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS
BARELY ORGANIZED. IN FACT...THE WIND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH DALILA
HAVE EITHER BEEN STEADY OR GRADUALLY COMING DOWN DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS. THIS TREND SUGGESTS THAT THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED...AND ARE MORE LIKE RANDOM PUFFS OF
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS CHARACTERISTIC OF A REMNANT LOW. IF THE
CONVECTION DOES NOT SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE...DALILA IS LIKELY TO BE
DECLARED A REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING. THE INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT...
AND A GRADUAL SPINDOWN IS PROBABLE GIVEN INCREASING SHEAR FROM
HURRICANE ERICK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS
BEFORE.

VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS STATIONARY. DALILA SHOULD
BEGIN TO BE DRAWN EASTWARD THEN NORTHWARD INTO THE CIRCULATION OF
THE MUCH LARGER ERICK DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SHIFTED EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL A BIT
EAST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 17.0N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 17.0N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/1800Z 17.1N 112.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/0600Z 17.3N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/1800Z 17.8N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE