EPAC: ERICK - Post Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Welcome, Erick. Have not seen you in 6 years!

[cycloneye]

Maybe preparing to do a RI?

[RL3AO]

Thats some cold cloud tops. Very impressive.

[Yellow Evan]

Maybe preparing to do a RI?

Too much shear probs.

[Yellow Evan]

Nice.

[Yellow Evan]

Latest microwave I know of.

[bahamaswx]

Warm spot smack in the middle of one of the more impressive CDO's I've seen in a while. 45mph? Yeah right.

[Yellow Evan]

Warm spot smack in the middle of one of the more impressive CDO's I've seen in a while. 45mph? Yeah right.

I'm guessing 45 knts at 6z.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 050548
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
1100 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013

...RAINBANDS OF ERICK BRUSHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 100.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS
* WEST OF MANZANILLO TO LA FORTUNA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.7 WEST. SATELLITE
DATA INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF ERICK HAS JOGGED TO THE WEST
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERICK SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO...BUT
REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN OAXACA...SOUTHERN GUERRERO...
SOUTHERN MICHOACA...COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE WARNING AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WEST OF MANZANILLO BY LATE SATURDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Extratropical94]

...CENTER OF ERICK PASSING SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 101.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013

ERICK IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C NEAR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...
AND IN A BAND NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND TWO RECENT
ASCAT OVERPASSES SUGGEST THE WINDS ARE AT LEAST 35 KT. BASED ON
THIS AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT.

THE SCATTEROMETER DATA...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AND DATA FROM
THE ACAPULCO RADAR INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ERICK IS SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL
MOTION 300/11. OTHER THAN THIS...THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. A COMBINATION OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE
ERICK TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT 72-96 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD MOTION. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW CLOSE WILL THE CENTER BE TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. DURING THAT TIME...THE FORECAST
TRACK LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WITH THE
GFDL...GFDN...AND CANADIAN MODELS TO THE RIGHT OF IT. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT SOUTH OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK...SUCH AS FORECAST BY THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED MODELS...WOULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITION ONTO
THE MEXICAN COAST.

ERICK IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LIGHT/MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN AMOUNT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS
ARE FORECASTING A STRONGER ERICK THAN 6 HOURS AGO AND SHOW THE
CYCLONE BECOMING A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HR. ALSO...THE SHIPS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A BETTER THAN 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25
KT OF STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE OTHER HAND...
IF THE CENTER GETS TOO CLOSE TO THE COAST...LAND INTERACTION COULD
RESULT IN A WEAKER CYCLONE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT DOES NOT CALL FOR ERICK
TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE SHIPS/LGEM
MODELS AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 15.2N 101.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 15.9N 102.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 16.8N 103.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 17.6N 105.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 18.6N 106.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 20.5N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 21.5N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 22.0N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
500 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013

...ERICK INTENSIFYING SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 101.6W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS
* WEST OF MANZANILLO TO LA FORTUNA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.6 WEST. ERICK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERICK SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL
TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND ERICK COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN OAXACA...SOUTHERN GUERRERO...
SOUTHERN MICHOACA...COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF
MANZANILLO BY LATE SATURDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART

[cycloneye]

Up to 50kts at 12z Best Track.

EP, 05, 2013070512, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1016W, 50, 998, TS

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013

...ERICK INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 102.1W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO EASTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO...AND
WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM WEST OF LA FORTUNA TO CABO
CORRIENTES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO EAST OF
ZIHUATANEJO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO LA FORTUNA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.1 WEST. ERICK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERICK SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL
TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERICK IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
TOMORROW.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN OAXACA...SOUTHERN GUERRERO...
SOUTHERN MICHOACA...COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD WESTWARD
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF LA FORTUNA BY LATE SATURDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART




TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013

ERICK CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS FORMED...WITH TIGHT BANDING IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO SHOW THAT SOME INNER
CORE FEATURES HAVE FORMED WITH PERHAPS THE START OF AN EYEWALL ON
THE SOUTH SIDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT... A BIT
BELOW THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS DUE TO THE SUGGESTION FROM
OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA THAT THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE COULD BE
LEADING THE INTENSITY CHANGE.

CONDITIONS LOOK RIPE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING WITH CONSIDERABLY
LESS SHEAR FORECAST THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 24H FOLLOWS THE TREND
OF THE SHIPS/LGEM/FSSE MODELS AND IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.
GIVEN THE RECENT SATELLITE TREND...THIS FORECAST COULD BE TOO
CONSERVATIVE. AFTER THAT TIME...ERICK IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY
CLOSE TO SOME COOLER WATERS THAT DALILA UPWELLED A FEW DAYS
AGO...AND THEN EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS MUCH COOLER WATERS FROM THE
TYPICAL NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC COLD TONGUE. THUS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS LEVELLED OFF AFTER 24H AND THEN STARTS A MORE RAPID
DECLINE...SIMILAR TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...300/9. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ENOUGH RIDGING WILL STAY OVER
MEXICO TO KEEP THE STORM MOVING ON ABOUT THE SAME PATH FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH
THE FIRST 48H...KEEPING THE CYCLONE AT LEAST 90 NMI OFFSHORE OF
MEXICO. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON WHETHER
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL STAY FIRM OR IF AN UPPER LOW
WILL ERODE PART OF THE RIDGE. THE NHC FORECAST IS NUDGED NORTHWARD
TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS...ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS STILL KEEP THE STORM OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 15.8N 102.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 16.3N 103.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 17.2N 104.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 18.1N 106.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 19.1N 107.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 21.0N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 22.5N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 10/1200Z 23.0N 119.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART

[SouthDadeFish]

Still showing a shear signature, but there is some nice banding:

[SouthDadeFish]

Although a mid-level eye feature appears to be trying to form:

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Depression Five-E

http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/9206/ra7c.png

Off Topic-Has anyone noticed a change in the NHC's Website? and it looks to be there to stay.

Do you mean the modified info boxes for active cyclones? They seem to have centered the status texts of the advisories.

And coloured borders around them, probably to signify a storms strength.

[Yellow Evan]

SAB and TAFB are at T3.5, which is 55 knts.

Any chance this could become a major before it's all done?

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
1100 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013

...ERICK STEADILY INCREASING IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 102.5W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

[Yellow Evan]

I could see the NHC going with 60 knts at 21z.

[Yellow Evan]