Since this never got posted
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN OAXACA...SOUTHERN GUERRERO...
SOUTHERN MICHOACA...COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD WESTWARD
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF LA FORTUNA BY LATE SATURDAY.
EPAC: ERICK - Post Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: ERICK - Tropical Storm
I wonder what will happen to Dalila if it keeps holding on like this. It'll definitely be interesting to see.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.
Hope this helped
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.
Hope this helped
-
cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: ERICK - Tropical Storm
Up to 60kts.
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ERICK IS INTENSIFYING WITH A
DEVELOPED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND TIGHT BANDING FEATURES.
MICROWAVE DATA ALSO SHOW THAT AN EYE IS TRYING TO FORM...ALTHOUGH
IT STILL APPEARS TO BE IN ITS PRIMITIVE STAGES. OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT 55-60 KT FOR THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED...AND 60 KT IS CHOSEN BASED ON THE CONTINUED UPWARD
TREND IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION.
ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INITIAL
FORWARD MOTION OF 300/9...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE NORTHEASTWARD
SHIFT IN MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHIFT
APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A SLIGHTLY DEEPER MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SOLUTION OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...WHICH CAUSES A WEAKER RIDGE NORTH OF
THE STORM. WHILE THIS CHANGE STILL KEEPS ERICK OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...THE MODELS DO SHOW A SLIGHTLY LARGER THREAT
TO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN A 2-3 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS MOVED
NORTHEASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL LIES SOUTH OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE CONDITIONS
STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. THIS LOWERING COULD BE DUE TO THE INCREASING POSSIBILITY
OF MORE LAND INTERACTION AND/OR THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO COOLER
WATERS A BIT FASTER. THE NEW NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION IS DECREASED
SOMEWHAT AFTER 24H TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE FACTORS...AND IS NEAR OR A
BIT ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AT MOST TIME PERIODS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 16.2N 102.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 16.9N 103.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 17.9N 105.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 19.1N 106.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 20.4N 108.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 22.5N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 23.0N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/1800Z 23.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ERICK IS INTENSIFYING WITH A
DEVELOPED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND TIGHT BANDING FEATURES.
MICROWAVE DATA ALSO SHOW THAT AN EYE IS TRYING TO FORM...ALTHOUGH
IT STILL APPEARS TO BE IN ITS PRIMITIVE STAGES. OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT 55-60 KT FOR THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED...AND 60 KT IS CHOSEN BASED ON THE CONTINUED UPWARD
TREND IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION.
ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INITIAL
FORWARD MOTION OF 300/9...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE NORTHEASTWARD
SHIFT IN MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHIFT
APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A SLIGHTLY DEEPER MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SOLUTION OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...WHICH CAUSES A WEAKER RIDGE NORTH OF
THE STORM. WHILE THIS CHANGE STILL KEEPS ERICK OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...THE MODELS DO SHOW A SLIGHTLY LARGER THREAT
TO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN A 2-3 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS MOVED
NORTHEASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL LIES SOUTH OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE CONDITIONS
STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. THIS LOWERING COULD BE DUE TO THE INCREASING POSSIBILITY
OF MORE LAND INTERACTION AND/OR THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO COOLER
WATERS A BIT FASTER. THE NEW NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION IS DECREASED
SOMEWHAT AFTER 24H TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE FACTORS...AND IS NEAR OR A
BIT ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AT MOST TIME PERIODS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 16.2N 102.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 16.9N 103.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 17.9N 105.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 19.1N 106.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 20.4N 108.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 22.5N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 23.0N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/1800Z 23.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: ERICK - Tropical Storm
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013
...ERICK FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 103.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TO CABO CORRIENTES.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013
ALTHOUGH THE HINT OF AN EYE OBSERVED EARLIER IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY
IS NOT DISCERNIBLE AT THIS TIME...LATEST MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A WELL
DEFINED RING OF CONVECTION WHICH NORMALLY LEADS THE FORMATION OF AN
EYE. A BLEND OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES INDICATE
THAT ERICK IS NOT A HURRICANE YET AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
AT 60 KNOTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRUCTURE OBSERVED ON IR AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY...ERIC COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME SOON.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ONLY SUGGESTS A MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BEYOND 36
HOURS...A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH COOLER
WATERS AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.
ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS AND
THIS BASED ON MICROWAVE FIXES. SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS...PRIMARILY
THE GFS...HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE RIGHT IN THE LAST RUN.
IN FACT...THE GFS MADE A BIG CHANGE IN THE 1800 UTC RUN AND NOW HAS
ERICK MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS BUT NOT AS FAR EAST AS INDICATED BY THE GFS...AND IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE. THIS MEANS THAT THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE IS NOW
FORECAST TO MOVE A LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. BEYOND
36 HOURS...ERICK WILL BE SOUTH OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND THIS PATTERN WOULD
FORCE THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST UNTIL DISSIPATION.
SINCE THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII WAS EXPANDED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
BASED ON A SHIP REPORT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO CABO CORRIENTES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 16.7N 103.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 17.5N 104.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 18.9N 105.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 20.2N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 21.4N 108.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 23.0N 113.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 23.0N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0000Z 23.0N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013
...ERICK FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 103.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TO CABO CORRIENTES.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013
ALTHOUGH THE HINT OF AN EYE OBSERVED EARLIER IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY
IS NOT DISCERNIBLE AT THIS TIME...LATEST MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A WELL
DEFINED RING OF CONVECTION WHICH NORMALLY LEADS THE FORMATION OF AN
EYE. A BLEND OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES INDICATE
THAT ERICK IS NOT A HURRICANE YET AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
AT 60 KNOTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRUCTURE OBSERVED ON IR AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY...ERIC COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME SOON.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ONLY SUGGESTS A MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BEYOND 36
HOURS...A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH COOLER
WATERS AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.
ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS AND
THIS BASED ON MICROWAVE FIXES. SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS...PRIMARILY
THE GFS...HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE RIGHT IN THE LAST RUN.
IN FACT...THE GFS MADE A BIG CHANGE IN THE 1800 UTC RUN AND NOW HAS
ERICK MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS BUT NOT AS FAR EAST AS INDICATED BY THE GFS...AND IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE. THIS MEANS THAT THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE IS NOW
FORECAST TO MOVE A LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. BEYOND
36 HOURS...ERICK WILL BE SOUTH OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND THIS PATTERN WOULD
FORCE THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST UNTIL DISSIPATION.
SINCE THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII WAS EXPANDED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
BASED ON A SHIP REPORT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO CABO CORRIENTES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 16.7N 103.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 17.5N 104.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 18.9N 105.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 20.2N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 21.4N 108.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 23.0N 113.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 23.0N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0000Z 23.0N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: EPAC: ERICK - Tropical Storm
NHC Discussion #5 wrote:CONDITIONS LOOK RIPE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING WITH CONSIDERABLY
LESS SHEAR FORECAST THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 24H FOLLOWS THE TREND
OF THE SHIPS/LGEM/FSSE MODELS AND IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.
GIVEN THE RECENT SATELLITE TREND...THIS FORECAST COULD BE TOO
CONSERVATIVE. AFTER THAT TIME...ERICK IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY
CLOSE TO SOME COOLER WATERS THAT DALILA UPWELLED A FEW DAYS
AGO...AND THEN EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS MUCH COOLER WATERS FROM THE
TYPICAL NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC COLD TONGUE. THUS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS LEVELLED OFF AFTER 24H AND THEN STARTS A MORE RAPID
DECLINE...SIMILAR TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE.
Whoa, stop the presses, less shear than forecast?!? Instead of magical shear appearing, we finally have an example of shear magically not appearing. This is earth-shattering
.Yellow Evan wrote:Any chance this could become a major before it's all done?
No.
greenkat wrote:I wonder what will happen to Dalila if it keeps holding on like this. It'll definitely be interesting to see.
I'm surprised the NHC was still going with Dalila, thought it was dead days ago. Doesn't look like anything on satellite now.
I thought this would become a hurricane. It does have some shear and the wrap-around appears to be the type that is slow going. There is a tiny chance that it won't make it to 65 knots but I'm still going with cane.
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Extratropical94
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TROPICAL STORM ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013
...ERICK EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 103.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 565 MI...905 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES.
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013
ERICK CONTINUES TO GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH TOPS
COLDER THAN -80C NEAR ITS CENTER...AND THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL
ATTEMPTS TO FORM AN EYE. HOWEVER...ANALYSIS OF MICROWAVE DATA
DURING THE PAST 12-18 HOURS SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS HAVING TROUBLE
BECOMING VERTICALLY ALIGNED...WITH THE MID-LEVEL EYE CONSISTENTLY TO
THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THIS
AND THE OBSERVED STRUCTURE IN MICROWAVE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.
THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST BASED ON
THE MICROWAVE DATA...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/7. A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER ERICK GENERALLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE MOTION
BECOMING MORE WESTWARD AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A STRONGER RIDGE
OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE
THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD AND SOME SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER MODELS. THE GFS
MOVES THE STORM ONSHORE SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES...WHILE THE UKMET
AND GFDL MODELS BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BASED IN THE SHORT-TERM ON THE INITIAL
POSITION AND IN THE LONGER TERM BY A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
GUIDANCE. WHILE IT KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE...ANY DEVIATION TO
THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ON TO THE MEXICAN
COAST SIMILAR TO THE GFS FORECAST.
IF THE CYCLONE DOES NOT HIT THE MEXICAN COAST...IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN
TO A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...ERICK SHOULD
MOVE OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH COULD BE AS
COLD AS 20-21C BY THE 96 HOUR POINT. THIS SHOULD CAUSE RAPID
WEAKENING...WITH THE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT
LOW AROUND 96 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SINCE THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUNTA SAN
TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 17.3N 103.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 18.0N 104.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 19.0N 105.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 20.3N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 21.5N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 23.0N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 24.0N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0600Z 24.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013
...ERICK EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 103.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 565 MI...905 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES.
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013
ERICK CONTINUES TO GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH TOPS
COLDER THAN -80C NEAR ITS CENTER...AND THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL
ATTEMPTS TO FORM AN EYE. HOWEVER...ANALYSIS OF MICROWAVE DATA
DURING THE PAST 12-18 HOURS SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS HAVING TROUBLE
BECOMING VERTICALLY ALIGNED...WITH THE MID-LEVEL EYE CONSISTENTLY TO
THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THIS
AND THE OBSERVED STRUCTURE IN MICROWAVE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.
THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST BASED ON
THE MICROWAVE DATA...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/7. A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER ERICK GENERALLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE MOTION
BECOMING MORE WESTWARD AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A STRONGER RIDGE
OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE
THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD AND SOME SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER MODELS. THE GFS
MOVES THE STORM ONSHORE SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES...WHILE THE UKMET
AND GFDL MODELS BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BASED IN THE SHORT-TERM ON THE INITIAL
POSITION AND IN THE LONGER TERM BY A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
GUIDANCE. WHILE IT KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE...ANY DEVIATION TO
THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ON TO THE MEXICAN
COAST SIMILAR TO THE GFS FORECAST.
IF THE CYCLONE DOES NOT HIT THE MEXICAN COAST...IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN
TO A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...ERICK SHOULD
MOVE OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH COULD BE AS
COLD AS 20-21C BY THE 96 HOUR POINT. THIS SHOULD CAUSE RAPID
WEAKENING...WITH THE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT
LOW AROUND 96 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SINCE THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUNTA SAN
TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 17.3N 103.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 18.0N 104.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 19.0N 105.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 20.3N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 21.5N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 23.0N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 24.0N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0600Z 24.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
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Extratropical94
- Professional-Met
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TROPICAL STORM ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
500 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013
...HEAVY RAINS FROM ERICK AFFECTING SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 103.9W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
500 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013
...HEAVY RAINS FROM ERICK AFFECTING SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 103.9W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139066
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: ERICK - Tropical Storm
12z Best Track up to 65kts.
EP, 05, 2013070612, , BEST, 0, 175N, 1042W, 65, 987, HU
EP, 05, 2013070612, , BEST, 0, 175N, 1042W, 65, 987, HU
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: ERICK - Tropical Storm
The 12z Best Track was updated to increase the winds from 65kts to 70kts.
EP, 05, 2013070612, , BEST, 0, 174N, 1040W, 70, 984, HU
EP, 05, 2013070612, , BEST, 0, 174N, 1040W, 70, 984, HU
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: ERICK - Hurricane
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013
...ERICK BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 104.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE
EAST COAST...AND SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ERICK SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL
TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. ERICK
SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE
SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED TODAY...AND ERICK SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SUNDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE MEXICAN COAST IN THE WARNED AREA TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH AREA LATE SUNDAY.
RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN GUERRERO...SOUTHERN MICHOACAN...
COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013
SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT ERICK HAS BECOME A
HURRICANE. THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER-ALIGNED VERTICALLY...WITH
LITTLE POSITIONAL DIFFERENCE NOW OBSERVED ON THE 37/91 GHZ
MICROWAVE CHANNELS. IN ADDITION...A RAGGED EYE APPEARS TO BE
FORMING ON THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES. THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 70
KT...A BLEND OF THE TAFB/SAB DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WITH A BIT MORE
WEIGHT ON THE TAFB FIX.
MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 310/8. THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
MEXICO EXPECTED TO STEER ERICK GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE MOTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS ERICK NEARS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DUE TO A
STRONGER RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO MOVES THE STORM ONSHORE OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BUT REMAINS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION. THE BULK OF
THE GUIDANCE IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...AND
LITTLE CHANGE IS MADE FOR THIS PACKAGE. WHILE THE NEW FORECAST
STILL KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE SINCE ERICK IS NOT THAT
FAR OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. THE HURRICANE COULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE
MORE TODAY WHILE IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS WITHOUT MUCH SHEAR.
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE TOMORROW DUE
TO ERICK MOVING ACROSS COOLER WATERS AND POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH
LAND. A MORE RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE AFTER THE WEEKEND
WITH MUCH COLDER WATERS IN THE PATH OF ERICK ALONG WITH DRIER MORE
STABLE AIR. THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 17.7N 104.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 18.6N 105.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 19.7N 106.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 21.0N 108.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 22.1N 110.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 23.5N 113.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 10/1200Z 25.0N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1200Z 25.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
HURRICANE ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013
...ERICK BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 104.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE
EAST COAST...AND SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ERICK SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL
TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. ERICK
SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE
SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED TODAY...AND ERICK SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SUNDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE MEXICAN COAST IN THE WARNED AREA TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH AREA LATE SUNDAY.
RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN GUERRERO...SOUTHERN MICHOACAN...
COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013
SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT ERICK HAS BECOME A
HURRICANE. THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER-ALIGNED VERTICALLY...WITH
LITTLE POSITIONAL DIFFERENCE NOW OBSERVED ON THE 37/91 GHZ
MICROWAVE CHANNELS. IN ADDITION...A RAGGED EYE APPEARS TO BE
FORMING ON THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES. THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 70
KT...A BLEND OF THE TAFB/SAB DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WITH A BIT MORE
WEIGHT ON THE TAFB FIX.
MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 310/8. THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
MEXICO EXPECTED TO STEER ERICK GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE MOTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS ERICK NEARS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DUE TO A
STRONGER RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO MOVES THE STORM ONSHORE OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BUT REMAINS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION. THE BULK OF
THE GUIDANCE IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...AND
LITTLE CHANGE IS MADE FOR THIS PACKAGE. WHILE THE NEW FORECAST
STILL KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE SINCE ERICK IS NOT THAT
FAR OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. THE HURRICANE COULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE
MORE TODAY WHILE IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS WITHOUT MUCH SHEAR.
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE TOMORROW DUE
TO ERICK MOVING ACROSS COOLER WATERS AND POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH
LAND. A MORE RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE AFTER THE WEEKEND
WITH MUCH COLDER WATERS IN THE PATH OF ERICK ALONG WITH DRIER MORE
STABLE AIR. THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 17.7N 104.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 18.6N 105.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 19.7N 106.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 21.0N 108.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 22.1N 110.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 23.5N 113.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 10/1200Z 25.0N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1200Z 25.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
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Hurricane_Luis
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15951
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
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- Contact:
I hope Erick intensifies to a C2. I'm really bored of minimal C1 hurricanes. 
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.
Hope this helped
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.
Hope this helped
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139066
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: EPAC: ERICK - Hurricane
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
1100 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013
...ERICK CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 104.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.5 WEST. ERICK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ERICK SHOULD MOVE
PARALLEL TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK
COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.
ERICK SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
LATE SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY...
AND ERICK SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SUNDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
105 MILES...165 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE MEXICAN COAST IN THE WARNED AREA TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH AREA LATE SUNDAY.
RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN GUERRERO...SOUTHERN MICHOACAN...
COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
HURRICANE ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
1100 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013
...ERICK CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 104.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.5 WEST. ERICK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ERICK SHOULD MOVE
PARALLEL TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK
COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.
ERICK SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
LATE SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY...
AND ERICK SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SUNDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
105 MILES...165 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE MEXICAN COAST IN THE WARNED AREA TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH AREA LATE SUNDAY.
RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN GUERRERO...SOUTHERN MICHOACAN...
COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
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Re:
greenkat wrote:I hope Erick intensifies to a C2. I'm really bored of minimal C1 hurricanes.
I would. But that means more destruction to MX, so it's a bad thing.
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Re: Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:greenkat wrote:I hope Erick intensifies to a C2. I'm really bored of minimal C1 hurricanes.
I would. But that means more destruction to MX, so it's a bad thing.
True that.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.
Hope this helped
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.
Hope this helped
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139066
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: ERICK - Hurricane
HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ERICK
HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A BANDING EYE
FEATURE HAS APPEARED INTERMITTENTLY IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
WHILE A MID-LEVEL EYE HAS BEEN PRESENT IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS BEING MAINTAINED BASED ON A BLEND OF
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT FROM TAFB AND UW-CIMSS
ADT...AND 65 KT FROM SAB.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS A STEADY 310/08 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO EITHER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR
REASONING. A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
ERICK MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. AFTER
THAT...HOWEVER...THERE IS A DISTINCT BIFURCATION IN THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE ECMWF...HWRF AND UKMET MODELS TAKING ERICK OVER
OR CLOSE TO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...WHEREAS THE GFS...GFS-ENSEMBLE...
AND NAVGEM MODELS TAKE A WEAKENING ERICK MORE WESTWARD BY 72 HOURS.
GIVEN THAT ERICK IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SUB-23C SSTS AFTER 48 HOURS
AND LIKELY BECOMING A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WHICH IS CLOSE
TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TCVE THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THEN LEANS MORE
TOWARD THE WEAKER AND WESTWARD SOLUTION OF THE GFS MODEL. ALTHOUGH
THE FORECAST TRACK STILL KEEPS THE CORE OF ERICK OFFSHORE...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER AND
STRONGER WINDS VERY NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST.
ERICK COULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE BIT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO...BUT THE NEARBY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR RAPID STRENGTHENING FROM
OCCURRING. BY 36 HOURS... HOWEVER...SHARPLY DECREASING SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD BEGIN TO INDUCE STEADY
IF NOT RAPID WEAKENING DESPITE THE OTHERWISE VERY FAVORABLE LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT ERICK WILL BE MOVING THROUGH.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS IVCN AND ICON.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 18.1N 105.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 19.0N 106.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 20.1N 107.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 21.3N 109.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 22.2N 110.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 23.8N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/1800Z 24.8N 118.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1800Z 24.8N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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