EPAC: ERICK - Post Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Erick is certainly looking good. Couldn't post much yesterday because Dwight Howard left my beloved Lakers. Was too depressed.

[zeehag]

erick is a windy fella with attitude---he is less than a degree of longitude away from us and i would love to see him go to ocean... barra de navidad has taken a hit this year from cosme, and has some damage and no more beach--these storms do wondrous things. we could see more damage here with this one.

[Yellow Evan]

Erick is certainly looking good. Couldn't post much yesterday because Dwight Howard left my beloved Lakers. Was too depressed.

Heh, not too happy about that but keep that on that off-topic section of this forum.

anyhow, back to Erick here is some radar of Erick.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013

...CENTER OF ERICK STILL PARALLELING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 105.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES




HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013

THE PROXIMITY OF ERICK TO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO APPEARS TO BE TAKING SOME TOLL ON THE CYCLONE. RECENT
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT
THE CLOUD PATTERN AND INNER CORE STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE HAS
DEGRADED SOME THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
NUMBERS REMAIN BETWEEN T4.0 AND T4.5...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS MAINTAINED AT 70 KT FOR NOW. ERICK HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN
INTENSITY SINCE LAND INTERACTION AND GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS
SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND TO COMMENCE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...ERICK WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER WATERS AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS
SHOULD HASTEN THE RATE OF WEAKENING...AND ERICK IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE UPDATED INTENSITY
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ICON.

ERICK IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THAT TIME. AFTER 24 HOURS...
THERE IS AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE
WITH THE ECMWF...HWRF...AND UKMET MODELS SHOWING A CONTINUED
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. FOR NOW THE NHC TRACK LIES BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS AND
IS CLOSE TO...BUT SOUTH OF...THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST TRACK...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 18.7N 105.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 19.6N 106.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 20.8N 108.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 21.8N 109.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 22.9N 111.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 24.5N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/0000Z 24.8N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Yellow Evan]

I think Erick is done intensifying.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ERICK HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH A SMALL CDO ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING
FEATURES...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 70 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL
SHEAR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...ERICK WILL
BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS SO STEADY WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY
MODEL CONSENSUS. BY 72 H...ERICK WILL BE OVER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 20 DEG C...SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE REDUCED TO
A REMNANT LOW AROUND THAT TIME.

BLENDING OF VARIOUS CENTER FIXES YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
OF 310/9. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PROGNOSTIC TRACK FORECAST
REASONING. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHOULD INDUCE A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS
IS ALSO QUITE SIMILAR TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT NORTH OF
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF PREDICTIONS.

BASED ON THE CURRENT LOCATION OF ERICK AND THE FORECAST...THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED EAST OF MANZANILLO.
ALSO...SINCE IT IS NOW UNLIKELY THAT THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL
MOVE OVER THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM
MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES IS ALSO DISCONTINUED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 19.2N 106.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 20.1N 107.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 21.2N 109.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 22.3N 110.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 23.3N 112.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 24.8N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/0600Z 25.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

Down to Tropical Storm.

TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ERICK IS WEAKENING. THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND NO
SIGNS OF AN EYE IN THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 60 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE
TAFB/SAB/CIMSS DVORAK ESTIMATES. IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT ERICK HAS
PEAKED IN INTENSITY WITH THE CYCLONE NOW CROSSING OVER COOLER
WATERS. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEED IS FORECAST...A BIT BELOW
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER SUB-22C WATER...IF NOT SOONER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 310/9. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED
TO HOLD FIRM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING ERICK TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD...THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD AS IT BECOMES A
MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE STORM
PASSING SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BETWEEN THE FLORIDA
STATE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

BECAUSE ERICK IS MOVING AWAY FROM MAINLAND MEXICO...THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 20.0N 107.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 20.8N 108.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 21.9N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 23.0N 111.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 24.0N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 10/1200Z 25.5N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/1200Z 25.5N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART

[Yellow Evan]

Erick going down fast.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 071736
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
1100 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013

...ERICK BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 107.7W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST. ERICK HAS
WOBBLED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ERICK SHOULD PASS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY EARLY MONDAY.

RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER JALISCO...NAYARIT...SINALOA...WESTERN DURANGO...
AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK ARE AFFECTING THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013

ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION OF ERICK REMAINS VIGOROUS...THE CYCLONE
HAS LOST MOST OF ITS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
RECENTLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 50 KT IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE NEW NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...
SHOWING A STEADY DECREASE IN STRENGTH DUE TO COOLING WATERS AND
ENTRAINMENT OF MORE STABLE AIR. ERICK SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW
IN 36 TO 48 HOURS WHEN IT MOVES OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS.

THE CYCLONE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY...WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 300/9. A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE
MODELS ON THIS ADVISORY CYCLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS
TREND BY BEING JUST SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS.
AS ERICK BECOMES A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW...IT SHOULD TAKE A MORE
WESTWARD TURN AND SLOW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK EASTERN
PACIFIC LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 20.3N 108.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 21.0N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 22.0N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 22.9N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 23.9N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/1800Z 25.0N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART

[Yellow Evan]

I hear MX is not doing so well. Erick is probs worse than Cosme there.

[galaxy401]

Four storms in a row now failing to strengthen beyond cat 1. Hope it wasn't too bad down in Mexico.

[Yellow Evan]

I think the TS warning for BCS will go soon.

[cycloneye]

TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013

THE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON HAS PERSISTED INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE RECENTLY STARTED TO WARM.
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 50 KT...AND IS A BLEND OF THE
VARIOUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. ERICK WILL BE MOVING OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AS A RESULT...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AND ERICK IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING. THE
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8. ERICK IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 20.8N 108.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 21.4N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 22.3N 111.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 23.3N 113.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 24.2N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/0000Z 25.0N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
800 AM PDT MON JUL 08 2013

INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE GENERAL STRUCTURE OF ERICK HAS
NOT CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER
THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
HAVE DECREASED...AND AN 0502 ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT WINDS NEAR
THE CENTER ARE PROBABLY NO GREATER THAN 40 KT. BASED ON ALL OF
THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 40
KT. ERICK IS TRAVERSING OVER A SHARP GRADIENT IN SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE...AND THE WATER TEMPERATURE CURRENTLY BENEATH THE
CYCLONE IS LESS THAN 25C. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE
TROPICAL STORM MOVES OVER EVEN COLDER WATERS...AND INTO A DRIER AND
MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST
STILL INDICATES THAT ERICK WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS.

FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THE 0502 ASCAT PASS SHOW THAT THE
CENTER OF ERICK IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED...HOWEVER THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY
UNCHANGED. ERICK IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THE REMNANTS WILL BE STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. BASED ON THE NEW INITIAL POSITION...THE NHC FORECAST
HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH...BUT IS OTHERWISE JUST AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 22.2N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 23.2N 111.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 24.3N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 25.1N 114.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/1200Z 25.6N 116.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/1200Z 26.0N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/ZELINSKY

[Yellow Evan]

Not looking good for BCS.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Not looking good for BCS.

Excuse me if its a stupid question, but what is "BCS"?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
200 PM PDT MON JUL 08 2013

ERICK HAS TAKEN ON A SHEARED APPEARANCE...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
HAS BECOME EXPOSED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE NOT CHANGED...AND A
1730Z ASCAT PASS ALSO SUPPORTS HOLDING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40
KT. THE APPARENT DECOUPLING OF THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS IS
LIKELY THE RESULT OF SUB-24C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH
ERICK...AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR BEING WRAPPED INTO ITS CIRCULATION.
THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...AND ERICK IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

ERICK HAS PROBABLY MADE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA COAST AND THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS 310/9. A RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON
THIS GENERAL HEADING FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CAUSE THE REMNANT LOW TO MAKE A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND HAS NOT
CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 22.6N 110.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 23.6N 112.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 24.7N 113.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 25.4N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/1800Z 25.7N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/ZELINSKY

[cycloneye]

Not looking good for BCS.

Excuse me if its a stupid question, but what is "BCS"?

Baja California South.

[cycloneye]

Down to TD.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
800 PM PDT MON JUL 08 2013

LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 2239 UTC SSM/I IMAGE
SHOWED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERICK TO BE PARTIALLY EXPOSED...WITH
DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. A BLEND OF
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF 35
KT AT 0000 UTC. SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH ERICK HAS RAPIDLY DIMINISHED...AND ERICK IS
DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT DEPRESSION ON THIS BASIS. STEADY
WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE SINCE ERICK IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE
INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND ENTER AND AN EVEN MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS FORECAST WITHIN 24 HOURS...IN
LINE WITH THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THE CENTER OF ERICK IS GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 310/09.
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER
ERICK ON A SIMILAR HEADING AND FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHALLOW CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE
WESTERLY AND DECELERATE PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 23.2N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 24.1N 112.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 25.1N 114.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 10/1200Z 25.7N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/0000Z 26.0N 117.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN