EPAC: ERICK - Post Tropical

[cycloneye]

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invest_ep972013.invest
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201307012336
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INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 97, 2013, DB, O, 2013070118, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP972013
EP, 97, 2013070118, , BEST, 0, 138N, 941W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUL 1 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DALILA...LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/STEWART
NNNN

[Kingarabian]

Dang! Very active indeed.

[Yellow Evan]

I have a bad feeling about Erick.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUL 2 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DALILA...LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/PASCH

[gatorcane]

The EPAC continues to crank out storms....looking good this morning.

[Yellow Evan]

All eyes should be on this invest. It's in an area where tons of majors form. I feel like it's time for another major, there has not been one since October.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

All eyes should be on this invest. It's in an area where tons of majors form. I feel like it's time for another major, there has not been one since October.

We may not have had one since October, but that doesn't guarantee we'll see one anytime soon. Most Atlantic hurricane seasons see their first hurricane within 2-4 named storms; 2011 didn't see their first until Irene, the 8th storm of the year.

That being said, the SHIPS at least isn't very enthusiastic about development, much like Dalila. It has 15-20 knots of wind shear to deal with. Heat content is low as well.

[Extratropical94]

18Z BT data and outlook:

EP, 97, 2013070218, , BEST, 0, 124N, 939W, 25, 1009, DB, [...], INVEST

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

[cycloneye]

Up to 50%.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SOUTHWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS
DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

EP, 97, 2013070300, , BEST, 0, 126N, 948W, 25, 1008, DB

['CaneFreak]

The 0Z SHIPS makes Invest 97E a hurricane by 0Z Saturday and has it skirting the Mexican coastline. No, I don't have a link to share...you will have to take my word for it

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS was not very aggressive with this.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Still 50%.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The 0Z SHIPS makes Invest 97E a hurricane by 0Z Saturday and has it skirting the Mexican coastline. No, I don't have a link to share...you will have to take my word for it

Ever so slightly offshore.

LAND (KM) 345 330 300 274 253 195 145 88 29 44 131 313 244

[Extratropical94]

Stays at 50%

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[Extratropical94]

12Z Best Track:

EP, 97, 2013070312, , BEST, 0, 118N, 952W, 25, 1008, DB, [...], INVEST

[Extratropical94]

Up to 70%

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS....AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[Extratropical94]

BT 18Z changed from disturbance to low:

EP, 97, 2013070318, , BEST, 0, 119N, 959W, 25, 1008, LO, [...], INVEST

[RL3AO]

Very impressive that we could be looking at the E storm on July 4th or 5th. Clearly conditions are favorable for formation, but we've yet to see one really take off in intensity like we saw in years like 1992.