EPAC: ERICK - Post Tropical

[cycloneye]

Very impressive that we could be looking at the E storm on July 4th or 5th. Clearly conditions are favorable for formation, but we've yet to see one really take off in intensity like we saw in years like 1992.

Or like in 1997 with very powerful Hurricane Linda as Cat 5.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I'd attribute that to a very La Nina-ish pattern. Surface pressures in May were above-average across nearly the entire Pacific...they've come down the past two months to the persistent areas of low pressure and tropical cyclones. In addition, vertical instability has been lacking relative to normal across the East Pacific, leading to subsidence/dry air. Further in that category, sea surface temperatures have been running cooler relative to normal, so the MJO isn't staying longer than it typically would to provide increased lift/moisture. Finally, we've also seen quite a bit of mid- to upper-level low troughs creating [temporary] increased wind shear on storms attempting to develop.

We'll get a major eventually. I'd guess Flossie for no reason.

[Extratropical94]

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY NOT BE AS CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[Kingarabian]

I'd attribute that to a very La Nina-ish pattern. Surface pressures in May were above-average across nearly the entire Pacific...they've come down the past two months to the persistent areas of low pressure and tropical cyclones. In addition, vertical instability has been lacking relative to normal across the East Pacific, leading to subsidence/dry air. Further in that category, sea surface temperatures have been running cooler relative to normal, so the MJO isn't staying longer than it typically would to provide increased lift/moisture. Finally, we've also seen quite a bit of mid- to upper-level low troughs creating [temporary] increased wind shear on storms attempting to develop.

We'll get a major eventually. I'd guess Flossie for no reason.

I remember Flossie. I remember dear Flossie clearly. Almost hit Hawaii when it refused to weaken.

[Yellow Evan]

I'd attribute that to a very La Nina-ish pattern. Surface pressures in May were above-average across nearly the entire Pacific...they've come down the past two months to the persistent areas of low pressure and tropical cyclones. In addition, vertical instability has been lacking relative to normal across the East Pacific, leading to subsidence/dry air. Further in that category, sea surface temperatures have been running cooler relative to normal, so the MJO isn't staying longer than it typically would to provide increased lift/moisture. Finally, we've also seen quite a bit of mid- to upper-level low troughs creating [temporary] increased wind shear on storms attempting to develop.

We'll get a major eventually. I'd guess Flossie for no reason.

I agree with what you said. I'd don't think Flossie will be like the one in 2007. But me personally, I could definitely used a major, I wanna throw the season in the trash. The last really storm storm worldwide to track was Sandra, and that was several months ago.

[RL3AO]

12 month running average for global tropical cyclones and major tropical cyclones. Still in a relatively quiet cycle since 2008 or so.

[cycloneye]

Up to 90%

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED AND THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA
IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10
MPH.

[Extratropical94]

12Z BT now at 30 knots:

EP, 97, 2013070412, , BEST, 0, 128N, 984W, 30, 1006, DB

[Extratropical94]

Advisories will likely be initiated in a few minutes.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep972013_ep052013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307041408
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

EP, 05, 2013070412, , BEST, 0, 132N, 982W, 30, 1006, TD, FIVE

[Extratropical94]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
800 AM PDT THU JUL 04 2013

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 98.4W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
800 AM PDT THU JUL 04 2013

SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH OF MEXICO NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND ENOUGH ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TAFB DVORAK
ESTIMATE AND AN EARLIER OSCAT PASS.

MODERATE-TO-STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH WILL PROBABLY NOT ALLOW
FOR MUCH INTENSIFICATION. A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
AFTER THAT TIME WHEN THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX A BIT WHILE THE
SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WARM WATER. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW
THAT THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN AT LEAST MODERATE...LIKELY INHIBITING
ANY RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW THE
DEPRESSION BECOMING A MID-RANGE TROPICAL STORM IN A FEW DAYS...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT...A BIT HIGHER THAN THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/9. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW ENOUGH RIDGING OVER MEXICO TO KEEP THE DEPRESSION OFFSHORE.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN A DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE
A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT THAT TIME. EXCEPT FOR THE THE
GFDL AND ITS ENSEMBLE...WHICH BRING THE STORM CLOSER TO MEXICO...
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE NHC
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH HAS
BEEN A TOP PERFORMER THIS SEASON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 13.4N 98.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 14.3N 99.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 15.3N 101.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 16.1N 102.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 16.6N 104.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 17.7N 107.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 18.9N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 19.5N 113.5W 35 KT 40 MPH



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[cycloneye]

Remains as TD on 18z Best Track.

EP, 05, 2013070418, , BEST, 0, 139N, 988W, 30, 1006, TD

[Yellow Evan]

Not shocked. Think we'll see Erick later tonight though.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Depression Five-E



Off Topic-Has anyone noticed a change in the NHC's Website? and it looks to be there to stay.

[Extratropical94]

Tropical Depression Five-E

http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/9206/ra7c.png

Off Topic-Has anyone noticed a change in the NHC's Website? and it looks to be there to stay.

Do you mean the modified info boxes for active cyclones? They seem to have centered the status texts of the advisories.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
200 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 99.2W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO LA FORTUNA.




TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
200 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013

THE DEPRESSION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWING BANDING SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER. AN EARLIER MICROWAVE PASS...HOWEVER...SUGGESTED THAT THE
SYSTEM LACKED ANY INNER CORE FEATURES...WITH A LARGER-THAN-AVERAGE
AREA OF LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INTENSITY
WILL STAY 30 KT ON THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH AGENCIES SUGGEST IT WILL SOON BECOME A STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...310/9. A WEAK
RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE STORM ON THIS GENERAL
COURSE FOR THE DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MEXICO...CAUSING THE DEPRESSION TO TURN
MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...EXACTLY WHEN THE DEPRESSION MAKES THAT
TURN IS UNCERTAIN. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE
MEXICAN COAST...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MOVED IN THAT
DIRECTION. THE FORECAST CHANGE REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...AND A WARNING COULD
BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT IF A NORTHEASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE
FORECAST CONTINUES.

MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION AS LONG AS
THE CENTER REMAINS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS COULD GET MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AFTER THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY FROM
MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS...BUT THEN IT WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING
COOLER WATER. THUS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHICH LIES BETWEEN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE
LGEM/SHIPS MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 14.2N 99.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 15.0N 100.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 16.1N 101.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 16.8N 103.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 17.7N 105.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 19.1N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 20.5N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 21.5N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN

[Yellow Evan]

CIMSS ADT is up to 40 knts while SSD Dvorak is up to 35 knts.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
500 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013

...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 99.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[Yellow Evan]

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO LA FORTUNA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE
PARALLEL TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN OAXACA...SOUTHERN
GUERRERO...SOUTHERN MICHOACA...COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO
MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE EASTERN
PART OF THE WATCH AREA ON FRIDAY. THESE CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD
WESTWARD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track upgrades to TS Erick.

EP, 05, 2013070500, , BEST, 0, 146N, 996W, 35, 1004, TS

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
800 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013

...FIFTH NAMED TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF THE SOUTWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 100.0W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
LAZARO CARDENAS TO LA FORTUNA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS
* WEST OF MANZANILLO TO LA FORTUNA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.0
WEST. ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY LATE FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERICK SHOULD
MOVE PARALLEL TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A RECENT SHIP REPORT INDICATES THAT GUSTY WINDS IN
RAIN BANDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN OAXACA...SOUTHERN
GUERRERO...SOUTHERN MICHOACA...COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO
MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE WARNING AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WEST OF MANZANILLO BY LATE SATURDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA


TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
800 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ERICK IS DOMINATED BY A MASS OF COLD-TOPPED
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. CONVECTIVE BANDING
FEATURES HAVE ALSO INCREASED AND GAINED SLIGHTLY MORE CURVATURE
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. A PAIR OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES WITHIN
INDICATED THAT THE CENTER IS BETTER DEFINED BUT EXPOSED NORTHEAST
OF THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION. A BLEND OF A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB OF T2.5/35 KT...MICROWAVE-ADJUSTED
OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS OF 3.0...AND AN
AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS THE BASIS FOR INCREASING THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE TO 40 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.

IT DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE INITIAL MOTION...BUT RECENT FIXES SUGGEST
A MOTION ESTIMATE OF 310/10. ERICK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND TOWARD A WEAKNESS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE HEADING OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEND WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD IN 2-3 DAYS IN RESPONSE TO THE HEAT RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLIDING EASTWARD. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MAIN SYNOPTIC
FEATURES...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT EXACTLY WHEN THE
CHANGE IN TRACK WILL OCCUR. THIS DETAIL TO THE FORECAST HAS
IMPLICATIONS ON HOW FAR OFFSHORE ERICK WILL TRACK FROM THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE RIGHT AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ECMWF AND THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.

MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR PREVAILS OVER THE STORM...
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. THE SHEAR
SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION THAT CAN OCCUR DURING
THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...DESPITE FAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS. WHILE THE
UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES MAY WEAKEN AFTER THAT TIME...ERICK WILL HAVE
LIKELY ALREADY REACHED COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THEREFORE...STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
PERIOD...WITH REMNANT LOW STATUS FOREAST BY DAY 5...IF NOT SOONER.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT
TERM AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE LATEST TREND AND IS CLOSE TO THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS...IVCN AND ICON.

GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE
SOUTWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 14.9N 100.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 15.8N 101.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 16.6N 102.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 17.4N 103.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 18.3N 105.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 19.9N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 21.2N 112.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 22.0N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA