awesome!!!
but it looks like an Eye Wall Replacement Cycle is underway
my observation was confirmed on JTWC's latest prognostic
JTWC also noted it's passage over a pocket of low ocean heat content value.
If this is tracking with a little lower latitude, it wont experience that drought of convection .
WDPN31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 07W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
SOUTHEASTWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
TY 07W HAS MAINTAINED EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS; HOWEVER, ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAKENING CORE CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THE
SYSTEM HAS RETAINED A 25-NM ROUND EYE. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
WEAKENING TREND CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE SYSTEM'S PASSAGE OVER A
POCKET OF VERY LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) VALUES AS WELL AS A
POSSIBLE INCIPIENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). A 100831Z SSMIS
IMAGE HINTS AT THE ERC AND SHOWS A SMALL INNER EYEWALL (30 NM
DIAMETER) SURROUNDED BY A LARGE (160 NM DIAMETER) RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN STABLE AT T6.5
(127 KNOTS) WHILE THE FINAL-T ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES HAVE
DECREASED TO T6.0 (115 KNOTS), THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
ASSESSED AT 120 KNOTS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON THE SMALL EYE FEATURE. A 100308Z OCEANSAT IMAGE
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT WIND RADII AND CONFIRMS AN EXTENSIVE WIND FIELD
WITH 15 TO 25 KNOT EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS 29N
LATITUDE, ENHANCED BY A SHARP RIDGE POSITIONED ALONG 30N LATITUDE.
RECENT UPPER-AIR DATA EVIDENCES A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE RYUKYUS AND INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA
ALONG ABOUT 30N LATITUDE. TY 07W IS TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS EAST-WEST
ORIENTED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP STR, TY 07W WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A
150-NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AS WELL AS THE 10/00Z UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW A 200MB RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS CHINA INTO KOREA AND JAPAN; THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER MONGOLIA IS PROPAGATING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND, AS EXPECTED, IS HAVING NEGLIGIBLE
IMPACT ON THE STR. DUE TO THE LOW OHC VALUES AND POSSIBLE ERC, THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING
LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM; HOWEVER, OHC VALUES WILL INCREASE AFTER
TAU 12 AND RADIAL OUTFLOW SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND
SHORT WINDOW FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 130 KNOTS BY TAU
24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS). AFTER TAU
48, TY 07W WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH TAIWAN.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY 07W WILL MAKE LANDFALL BY TAU 72
THEN RE-CURVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE
DYNAMIC AIDS DIVERGE BUT NOW THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A RE-
CURVE OVER LAND WITH THE REMNANTS RE-EMERGING OVER THE YELLOW SEA.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OVER LAND AND
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.//
NNNN
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