ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307051906
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2013, DB, O, 2013070518, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942013
AL, 94, 2013070418, , BEST, 0, 214N, 957W, 15, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2013070500, , BEST, 0, 217N, 959W, 15, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2013070506, , BEST, 0, 221N, 960W, 20, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2013070512, , BEST, 0, 225N, 960W, 20, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2013070518, , BEST, 0, 229N, 960W, 20, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 013.invest

Thread that was the topic for this area at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115174&hilit=&start=0

[greenkat]

1. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MOVE INLAND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BY
SUNDAY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND AND ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UPPER TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY.

[tailgater]

Man Luis you are always on top of everything, Keep up the great work. It's not up at the Navy NRL site yet.

[Gustywind]

Man Luis you are always on top of everything, Keep up the great work. It's not up at the Navy NRL site yet.

You're right. Thus, he's always faster than a ligthning . That's why is our Superman here for sure

[BigB0882]

As I mentioned in the other thread, hoping this brings some rain to Crockett, TX area. The precip percentages are only showing 20-30% on Sunday into Monday. I don't know if they don't expect it to come up this far with the moisture or if they are just waiting a little longer before raising percentages to get a better handle on what it may or may not do. I will give up a day by the pool if it can help fill this lake up.

[cycloneye]

Well,Erick in EPAC is not letting newly designated invest 94L do anything more as the outflow is disrupting things.

[NDG]

No surprise that it is an Invest and I said a couple of days ago that it was going to be designated today as an Invest, we have seen in the past how quickly systems in this part of the GOM can quickly organize when UL conditions improve and the GFS continues to show that UL conditions could do so before moving inland Sunday evening.
I don't expect much out of this over the next 24 hrs.

[Hurricaneman]

this has potential to become a 40kt ts before landfall on sunday, but if the shear drops more than expected then it could get as high as 50kts so this indeed needs to be watched for surprises, if nothing else there could be much needed rain for Texas

[cycloneye]

Looks a little bit better this afternoon than this morning.

[vbhoutex]

this has potential to become a 40kt ts before landfall on sunday, but if the shear drops more than expected then it could get as high as 50kts so this indeed needs to be watched for surprises, if nothing else there could be much needed rain for Texas

Why do you think it has that potential?

Also please add the disclaimer when posting "forecasts". I am adding it for you now.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KatDaddy]

Hello Invest 94L! Looking a little better this afternoon. Interesting days ahead for me, VB, Ticka, and several other S2K members.

[Portastorm]

Hello Invest 94L! Looking a little better this afternoon. Interesting days ahead for me, VB, Ticka, and several other S2K members.

Feel free to share what should end up being a "wealth" of rainfall with your parched neighbors to your west!

[Portastorm]

Would y'all say that the latest visible satellite suggests a lower level rotation about 100 miles east of Tampico?

[ROCK]

Hello Invest 94L! Looking a little better this afternoon. Interesting days ahead for me, VB, Ticka, and several other S2K members.

you always forget about me!!! and I live right down the street from you...

[ROCK]

Would y'all say that the latest visible satellite suggests a lower level rotation about 100 miles east of Tampico?

agree...I see it and convection is building...I will never discount the NAVGEM again...

[Tireman4]

Hello Invest 94L! Looking a little better this afternoon. Interesting days ahead for me, VB, Ticka, and several other S2K members.

you always forget about me!!! and I live right down the street from you...

Yo man, you forgot about me. We only talk on the phone and text each other every week. LOL Also, we have attended at least three metal concerts together...lol

[Sambucol]

Hello Invest 94L! Looking a little better this afternoon. Interesting days ahead for me, VB, Ticka, and several other S2K members.

you always forget about me!!! and I live right down the street from you...

And me. Ticka and I are neighbors!

[Portastorm]

Would y'all say that the latest visible satellite suggests a lower level rotation about 100 miles east of Tampico?

agree...I see it and convection is building...I will never discount the NAVGEM again...

Who knew?! Perhaps the alleged upgrade did make a difference.

[cycloneye]

Ok guys,after the street salutes, let's return to the topic on hand,thanks.

[ROCK]

sorry to derail the thread like that....my bad. ..but back on topic we do have some vort where Portastorm is saying...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

shear will be dropping



http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=