ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

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invest_al952013.invest
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201307061125
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2013, DB, O, 2013070606, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952013
AL, 95, 2013070606, , BEST, 0, 77N, 307W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115182&hilit=&start=0

[Gustywind]

Waouw, that was fast Here we are with Invest 95L.

[Gustywind]

Cycloneye, any idea concerning the models plots?

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 061136
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1136 UTC SAT JUL 6 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952013) 20130706 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130706 0600 130706 1800 130707 0600 130707 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 7.7N 30.7W 8.2N 33.2W 9.0N 36.3W 10.1N 40.1W
BAMD 7.7N 30.7W 7.9N 33.8W 8.4N 36.9W 9.3N 40.4W
BAMM 7.7N 30.7W 8.1N 33.8W 8.7N 37.1W 9.7N 40.8W
LBAR 7.7N 30.7W 7.9N 34.1W 8.5N 37.8W 9.5N 42.0W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 50KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130708 0600 130709 0600 130710 0600 130711 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.4N 44.4W 14.6N 53.6W 18.3N 62.2W 21.8N 68.2W
BAMD 10.6N 43.9W 13.4N 50.9W 16.1N 56.3W 17.0N 58.8W
BAMM 10.9N 44.8W 13.9N 52.8W 17.1N 59.8W 19.5N 64.2W
LBAR 10.8N 46.4W 13.9N 55.4W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 58KTS 64KTS 63KTS 62KTS
DSHP 58KTS 64KTS 63KTS 62KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 7.7N LONCUR = 30.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 7.6N LONM12 = 27.7W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 7.4N LONM24 = 24.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Fego]

Lets push the models' paths button.

[ouragans]

Waouw, that was fast Here we are with Invest 95L.

This means in the next TWO, it should be up to 20%. I understand it's a strong wave, good signature, but in a dry environment, I can't figure out how this could become any kind of cyclone in the next 48 hrs

Gustywind, locals will be happy, it will be our first midweek tropical wave For months we only had bad weather on week-ends

[Fego]

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BE BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

There you have: 20 %

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Lets push the models' paths button.

Tracks are now at 95L models thread.

[Gustywind]

Hey hey , looks like the models are very agressive at the end of the period, 64kts?

[Fego]

Lets push the models' paths button.

Tracks are now at 95L models thread.

It was a pep talk comment lol.

[Gustywind]

Waouw, that was fast Here we are with Invest 95L.

This means in the next TWO, it should be up to 20%. I understand it's a strong wave, good signature, but in a dry environment, I can't figure out how this could become any kind of cyclone in the next 48 hrs

Gustywind, locals will be happy, it will be our first midweek tropical wave For months we only had bad weather on week-ends

Yeah Ouragans, you're right but let's wait a bit to see really if this one can escape from this dry environnement. Hopefully we're in July, but if we were in August that will be a different story. Let's monitor it in case of, we never know.
Yes for the bad weather mid-week is a blessed period for the locals compared to the week-end

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 061049
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 06 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE WAS RELOCATED FARTHER EAST TO ALIGN WITH A SURFACE
LOW ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. AXIS IS CURRENTLY ALONG 19N32W TO
A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 7N30W MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE PRESENT
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...A LARGE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER SURROUNDS THE WAVE...WHICH IS INHIBITING ANY DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE AXIS EXCEPT NEAR THE LOW. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 30W-34W.

[Gustywind]

Tracking Info For Invest 95L

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... track.html



Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
06 GMT 07/6/13 7.7N 30.7W 25 1009 Invest

[jinftl]

Untrained eye - looking kinda healthy with some banding type features...it's an invest now but this is not Cape Verde season folks so either this is a sign of what is to come this season or it's not going to do much based on climatology

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.

AL, 95, 2013070612, , BEST, 0, 78N, 326W, 25, 1009, LO

[cycloneye]

12z Model guidance.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1228 UTC SAT JUL 6 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952013) 20130706 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130706 1200 130707 0000 130707 1200 130708 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 7.8N 32.6W 8.3N 35.7W 9.3N 39.4W 10.7N 43.9W
BAMD 7.8N 32.6W 8.1N 35.7W 8.8N 39.1W 9.9N 42.7W
BAMM 7.8N 32.6W 8.3N 35.8W 9.2N 39.4W 10.3N 43.3W
LBAR 7.8N 32.6W 8.2N 36.1W 8.9N 40.1W 10.1N 44.4W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130708 1200 130709 1200 130710 1200 130711 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.3N 48.9W 16.3N 59.0W 20.5N 67.5W 24.0N 72.4W
BAMD 11.3N 46.3W 14.2N 53.1W 16.2N 58.0W 15.7N 61.2W
BAMM 11.8N 47.4W 15.0N 55.5W 18.2N 62.1W 19.9N 65.8W
LBAR 11.4N 48.9W 14.7N 57.8W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 53KTS 58KTS 59KTS 59KTS
DSHP 53KTS 58KTS 59KTS 59KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 7.8N LONCUR = 32.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 7.7N LONM12 = 29.4W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 7.5N LONM24 = 26.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 140NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Gustywind]

Latest from NRL:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... m&PROD=vis

20130706.1145.95LINVEST.25kts-1009mb-77N-307W.

[Gustywind]

Tracking Info For Invest 95L

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... .html?MR=1

Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
06 GMT 07/6/13 7.7N 30.7W 25 1009 Invest
12 GMT 07/6/13 7.8N 32.6W 25 1009 Invest

[cycloneye]

Climatology may not favor this system to develop but sometimes mother nature throws out the window that. One example was Bertha of 1996 that formed on July 5. So let's watch and see what occurs with 95L down the road.