WPAC: CIMARON - Post-tropical

[euro6208]

yes i noticed that earlier...convection seems to be increasing...

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 988.4mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.6 3.6


we might be dealing with a more stronger storm...it does look stronger than 35 knots...

[senorpepr]

Forecast models are in much better agreement on the future for Tropical Storm Cimaron, but when will Cimaron make landfall in China? JMA, HKO, PAGASA, and JTWC all tell different stories. That and more, plus a quick introduction to Invests 94W and 95W in the video:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7MZeSmZ-6U[/youtube]

[HURAKAN]

sheared tropical storm, producing moderate to heavy rains over Taiwan

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 22.7N 117.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 117.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 24.7N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 26.9N 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 23.2N 116.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 08W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 174 NM EASTWARD
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (CIMARON) WARNING
NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 08W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 174 NM
EASTWARD OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A RECENT INCREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION, BUT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ASSOCIATED WITH
TIGHT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST OF TS 08W. A RECENT
172141Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE
LLCC AS IT CONTINUES TO BE STEERED IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW
AROUND A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). STRONG CONVERGENT
FLOW WITHIN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BE THE
MAIN SOURCE OF DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY TRACKED MORE
NORTHWARD AND IS STARTING TO ELONGATE. THIS ELONGATION IS CONNECTED
TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGHING IMPACTING THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF TS 08W. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS BEEN STEADY
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS TS 08W TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH. INTENSITY HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED AT 40 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS BASED ON A LACK OF
OBSERVED IMPROVEMENT IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TS 08W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL INTO EASTERN CHINA WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM INTENSIFYING PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, INCREASING FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS WILL
QUICKLY WEAKEN THE LLCC. FULL DISSIPATION AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED BY TAU 24. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT,
LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[phwxenthusiast]

very discernible, yet tiny, circulation on radar... about to push inland near Xiamen...

[senorpepr]

Quick video update on Cimaron as it makes landfall. Also a quick tidbit on 94W and 95W.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pbfMDI8m4Q[/youtube]

[phwxenthusiast]

Xiamen Airport (ZSAM) reporting rains with sustained 30kph and 55kph gust in the last hour... looking at the radar, the center is just to the south of the airport...

[RobWESTPACWX]

Looks like the 15Z warning from JTWC has it finalized.



JMA also has it dropping off by morning.

[phwxenthusiast]

max winds so far is 17.3m/s (62kph) from Xiamen...